I had a full day with the kids and have just returned from an early dinner. Throughout this evening I’ll be prepping for tomorrow’s festival, a day which I will cherish due to the finality of it all. This will be the last Thanksgiving during peace-time and we should all give thanks to the Gods for providing us with ample sustenance and drink.
Markets rallied up as is customary during the Thanksgiving week and now we look forward to Cyber Monday sales figures missing the mark.
Here is the simple fact I cannot shake.
I believe in the efficient market theory, on a sliding scale. The market has been pricing in a special sort of doom lately and the numbers do not add up or warrant this carnage. Sure inflation is high and the Fed is hiking like a motherfucker and war in the Ukraine is terrible; but corporate numbers are not in disaster territory and I get a sense we have yet to see capitulation.
My prediction is as follows:
BROKEN FUCKING ELEVATOR to the downside trading action barreling into the New Year’s.
Enjoy the feast lads and batten down the hatches. We are merely in the 4th inning of the current bear market.
I traded +2% for the week.
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“Enjoy the feast lads and batten down the hatches. We are merely in the 4th inning of the current bear market.”
What bear market? Perhaps we are in the 4th inning of a cyclical bear market but the National Anthem isn’t even finished in the secular bear market.
It’s coming…