iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
21,906 Blog Posts

A Wretched Bidless Biden Tragedy

That did not go as expected. We closed at session lows down 385 NASDAQS on top of a backdrop where SAAS and other high valuation stocks are already down 22% for the year. When bubbles pop and the pieces are picked up, we will know where the bottom was only after the fact. Before the fact, we can only guess.

Here is the PS ratio and historical valuations for tech bellwether CRM.

8.6x seems like a good level to dive in and I am heavily long WCLD — based on the fact that CRM is now trading 6.7x 2023 sales, providing they meet expectations. I sold almost everything early on, took immense losses in SHOP, MTTR, TTD and I initiated hedges in DRIP and SOXS. All of these moves on an intra day scale made sense and I still closed down more than 2%, finished the week off by 7%. I closed with a 26% weight in WCLD, 5% LABU and 5% UVXY just in case. I have 62% cash and the reason for this is I am now down 10% for January, coming off -2.6% in December. I have not managed the market well, a little too soon and a little too late. There are been so many trades I missed and sales I held off because I hoped for a rally. This trust, based upon the learned behavior of the market the past 12 years, has caused me to be complacent.

It is true the markets are oversold inside Stocklabs and it is true the oversold signal that flashed yesterday failed. This is not the first time the OS failed and it won’t be the last. These signals, at times, can be wonderful crutches and helpful in navigating the market. But there are times like now when the narrative is shifting and the ideas of a bounce are foreign and it is during those times we get true dislocation.

My best guess is for a sharp mean reversion rally soon but I cannot allow myself to bet too big because of my losses. The ultimate goal is to remain in the game and to limit losses during periods of duress. The best way to do that is staying loyal to stop losses and accepting the fact you were wrong and lost the chance at playing SHOP because it fucking tanked into your face you fucking moron piece of shit.

 

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17 comments

  1. txchick57

    Hell, I”m down 8% for the year and I had 20% of my account in UVXY coming in. They’re hammering a great stock like CLF which has delevered, will deliver blowout earnings in a few week and has a p/e of 2 or 3. Go figure.

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  2. cmj

    Legit transparency Mr Fly.

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  3. it is showtime

    From January 4

    Hi inner wall st CB circle

    4822.

    I just named a number
    you cant get the S&P
    to hit. Can’t even touch.
    have a good day
    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/big-tech-bonds-battered-banks-bitcoin-bid?commentId=1be483fb-bb5f-4cd6-97a3-cc7deceabbea

    – BURN! –

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  4. nocigar

    Word of the day: martingale!

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  5. boyaj

    JNK and SRLN didn’t move. Either we’re in for much more pain or rally soon. I’ll gauge my next move based on those.

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  6. trumpmeister

    Went all in with 200% margin at the end of today. Win big or go home. Big Nutz pros only left…

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  7. richardweiner

    I saw a new commercial for Snickers bars and it looked an advertisement for nigger penises. Don’t Snickers bars look like veiny nigger penises?

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  8. fxtradepro

    There is only ONE man on the planet that we know can stop the selling. ONE.

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  9. cll

    Dude, you’re fucking losing it.

    This is what years of Alex Jones and NewsMax and whatever new right-wing shit can do to a man who used to write sane and funny stuff.

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    • tha pirate

      The Dems are destroying the greatest Democracy the world has ever seen and all folks like you can do is smear those who tell the truth. Instead, perhaps act like an American and give a listen to what NewsMax, Tucker Carlson, Sean Hannity and others have to say about things and maybe you will learn something.

      If Americans don’t come together soon this could all come apart.

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      • cll

        No, thank you. I don’t live in the dystopian hellscape that you’ve been stuck in for years. Just read your own posts.

        Life is good on my end. I don’t have time for all that political hysteria. I am just checking in now that we finally had a correction since the Covid bottom.

        I do feel bad for your family. They can’t block you but I suspect they wish they could.

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      • bob smith

        You keep traveling down the rabbit hole of Trump delusions. Please get some help from a reputable psychiatrist. Please for your own sake and for the sake of those who love you*

        *this does not include right wing nut jobs like Margorie Taylor Gross who very well might be your mother from another species.

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        • richardweiner

          Hey. Let’s keep.the topics to markets. Do.you think the recent breakdown in crack prices is a sign inflation is slowing or a result of niggers running out of stimulus money? The macd for crack says it’s a sell but the Bollinger bands and RSI say price is oversold.

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  10. roguewave

    On average, there are twice as many reports of cancer following the CO shots compared to all other vaccines combined over the last 31 years
    probably nothing
    it’s even more remarkable when you consider that most people don’t think the shots could be a variable in their cancer emergence, so they never report it

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  11. roguewave

    Youtube hack
    YouTube account (along with many others) was hijacked today – it posted some scam video about “one world cryptocurrency”. This is a scam and I’ve never uploaded or authorized this video
    This is likely a hijacking attack on YouTube. as there are more than 30 YouTubers affected

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