The pressures of runaway inflation is causing the 10yr to spike through the roof, now up 7bps to 1.56%. This is NOT a big deal until it hits 2%. Natty was up 10% and now selling off hard, alongside many oil/natty stocks. I sold out of most my oils and SOXS hedge this morning and am up 90bps as we speak. The overall tone of the market is terrible, and I don’t like it, but I cannot short into the hole with the NASDAQ off nearly 300.
Can we bounce?
Maybe.
The point is, cash is king and there isn’t a reason to play every move. The smart move might be to take small nibbles and trades throughout the day and position into the close for tomorrow.
The fear now is inflation, energy crisis, and a COVID winter. In my opinion, none of these are real reasons for a market calamity. Nevertheless, ‘tis the season for marker corrections and September always brings the drama. Perhaps this blood letting is setting us up for a more predictable and industrious October.
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The T.I.N.A. gang are about to get decapitated for playing a game of tag in an industrial park.
Could be. The congressional games are the pivot.
I think they’re irrelevant to be honest. If the country has crossed out of the deflationary cycle we were caught in since 2008, fiscal and monetary stimulus will be net negatives.
4.5t is never irrelevant.
I’m putting together a put position. Target: 200dma.
If I have to own an interest-bearing version of a currency issued by a country without a functioning legislature ( been that way for a number of years), maybe I want more than ~1.5%
You might but the big money knows that traditionally deficit money shows up in corporate profits dollar for dollar.
Which means that they make a lot more than 1.5%.
Warning for oil bulls: I filled my massive heating oil tank yesterday …oil should now have a sustained move lower.
Wrong