I was all the way into the oils well into the 3pm hour and then decided to pull the trigger on most of my gains — booking profits and locking them in and then watched as the market got hit with red candle after red candle.
Mixed bag, on the whole. Tech stocks were sold off while commodities were sharply higher. As a point in fact, many oil sectors hit 30 yr overbought levels in Stocklabs today. The data is mixed, not too bullish or bearish. Nevertheless, it’s important to note the technical condition and what it can mean.
It can mean we squeeze the brains out of the shorts here, or perhaps if the markets gets dicey enough there will be extreme profit taking. Because of this apprehension, I removed myself from margin and raised cash to 40% and also sold short semis via SOXS to hedge against eventualities.
I am long SHIT OILS and I sense they can really lift and I really really want to press the metal and gas it; but I cannot because I am having a bad month and when in slumps it’s important to operate slowly until I am seeing the ball better.
At my best, I see the seams spinning and winding as the ball approaches me. For the past month or so, I have been wildly swinging and missing — because for me this pitcher is hard and I having difficulty hitting him. But I’ve been doing this a long long time and will start learn these patterns and before you know it — I am rifling line drives right at his fucking head — knocking all of his stupid teeth out.
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I agree. Lots o’ cash is a good idea here. Oil can run but not if the economy gets wrecked. In a political environment this toxic don’t rule anything out.
There seems to be a lot of misperception on various boards / that god awful bird site that high input costs will translate to higher earnings.
Most businesses operate on a fixed fee for service model. Higher prices for goods mean nothing if the business gets a flat cut. As an example people are bidding up autos under the delusiom that a bunch of suppliers making a fixed $ per part will suddenly make more just because their past through costs are soaring. That’s not how it works.
Even in the input cost industries – oils, timber, copper, etc – those futures are soaring for a reason. If someone had the materials and could get them to market, we wouldn’t be here, now would we?
In summary, this period of time could reasonably suck for everyone with no real winners.
Pass through*
You wait for more volatility in OCT, you short the piss out of TLT when it happens, and you buy the shit out IWM. I surmise we bottom into the Fed taper announcement beginning of November and we don’t look back until March.