Rates Are Easing Because Inflation is Transitory

You think I’m fucking with you. I am not fucking with you. Inflation is a fiction made up on Twitter and in the grocery aisles of America. I can go out there today and buy a television for the same price I could in 1985. Having said that, there is no doubt we are in the midst of a transitory spate of rapid inflation, only caused by the stimulus checks provided to easy spenders (poor) around the world. Once it abates and the specter of universal income dwindles, commodities will revert back to their mean.

We see the 10yr treasury now in the 1.5s and no one is looking at it — but I am. Because if inflation isn’t a problem then the Fed won’t need to taper. If the Fed doesn’t taper, then we’re off to the races, or at least I’d like to believe that.

I slept in today, being that it is my birthday, and it cost me 200bps in gains. I am now down 90bps and I’m afraid I will not be able to trade out from it, lest I really turn up the amperage and pick wisely. Honestly, I just don’t feel up to it.

Markets look flaccid, fat, and slow. I’m 35% cash, betting against oil, overlooking the spectacle but finding nothing I like at the moment.