iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,429 Blog Posts

Phase 1 of the Crisis is Over; Prepare for Phase 2

No clue how long this will last — but the initial stages of the collapse appear to have ended. The Fed threw the kitchen sink at the market and it stuck. None of this means we’re out of the woods, far from it. But what it does mean is risk to the system completely ending is over. In its place, soon, will be DOWNSIDE surprises and a fucked up economic environment.

I bought a bunch of shit yesterday and sold it today.

The haul.

JWN +24.6%
WW +16.4%
ALLY +13.7%
STWD +18.5%
H +14%
TREE +10.1%
SQ +7.7%
ZEN +7%

Also, I’m going to start allocating to the Quant again, but keep my retirement in cash. I’m bullish on the direction of the market now because price action demands it. My opinions about how all of this is possible it not relevant and only serves to conform me into a money losing ideologue. If I wanted to get ahead of the curve and short the market, I’d need to have some more recent gains under my big ass belt. For now, I am trend following, ripping out spines and crushing heads into dust.

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23 comments

  1. narcist

    Yeah, back to JBTFD mode till it stops working.

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    • narcist

      Matter of fact, right here at sub-2690 looks good to start buying.

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      • narcist

        And so I did.

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      • numbersgame

        Really? Interesting.

        I don’t know if I’m a glutton for punishment or just have different timeframes in mind, but I added to my (losing) drip position form last week.

        BTW, you hope that COVID-19 would reduce the ranks of Trumpers has hit a major snag: for some reason, African-Americans are much more likely to die from COVID-19, far above their population proportion, although it seem those of East Asian descent are also unproportionaly vulnerable.

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        • numbersgame

          Then again, older African Americans are the most conservative group in the Democratic Party (Biden’s core), so this diseases is still accelerating the Leftward movement of the country.

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          • narcist

            Worth repeating, perhaps: The main objective of “project COVID” is/has always been to let it find its way to the swing states like AZ and FL (and to a lesser extent GA) and go after the “ex-burb/rural” districts. We are not at that phase yet.

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        • wolfdaddy

          Trump wins again!

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        • narcist

          I just did one contract per point from 2688 to 2660 (doubtful that the orders below 2660 will get filled). There will be higher highs because the short-term narrative is that other central banks to follow the Fed. So that’s bullish.

          Yeah, read about the deaths in IL. (But then IL isn’t a swing state.) Also, like others have noted, cities do get hit first.

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  2. numbersgame

    I am just about sold out of all my long hedges. Closed CCL for another massive gain, but still holding EBAY and some cash.

    Oil is crashing, and the market has seemed to turned. Is there a catalyst I missed, or just reality setting in?

    C’mon bulls, sell high, help yoursleves, and help a Bear out at the same time!

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    • awanka

      I think the news cycle is on the bull’s side from here on out. Bad news like Florida #s will be ignored. Positive news like Europe lifting restrictions will get a lot of traction. Definitely money to be made being short, but I think bears are on a timer. 90 days from now I expect markets to be much higher than now, which seems ludicrous at these levels, but there you go.

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  3. ericbakerbruce

    NYC COVID-19 Deaths:
    Female – 1,017
    Male – 1,719
    Unknown Sex – 2

    Peaches, narcist you still with us?

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    • narcist

      Still really pathetic and repetitive.

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      • ericbakerbruce

        Pot kettle black

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        • narcist

          Try something new is all I’m saying.

          With rare exceptions, gender jokes are generally lame, not funny, and belong to middle school.

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        • numbersgame

          ebb,
          maybe if you let us know how many “gooks” died instead, narcist will find that funny…

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          • narcist

            Wait, only if he phrases it in a comical way. (Check my clarification in that other post.)

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  4. numbersgame

    S&P, DOW, Daq
    red, red, red

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    • narcist

      I’d concede that the close could have been less panicky.

      I’m expecting ES 2700 to be cross at least once more (but not sure about 2740) this week.

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  5. bambam

    Long Duck Dong! Bumpy sure but no more BA $95 or DIS at $85. You missed that. Move on son. Nothing to see here. Go Vanguard and go home.

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