Eventful day in Wall Street today. We opened up like wildcats and tore bears to shreds. I booked EXTREME profits and then felt like a genius, so I delved back in and methodically bought throughout the day until I was ALL IN, once again, positioning for one more run. Just one more.
Times are hard and the global economy is being DEMOLISHED. People are at home waiting for their $1,200, sustaining on Ramen Noodles, bereft of papered towels and toilet paper. We are only assuaged by meaningless jargon, such as “FLATTENING THE CURVE” and/or “STIMULUS BILL.” All of this is meaningless shit and to be honest, people should be a lot angrier than scared. Government has mandated you to starve, destroyed your way of life and kept you under martial law for weeks under the auspices of safety. The truth is, the healthcare system was built poorly and designed for maximum profits, which is why they’re unable to sustain the pangs of this pandemic. As a result of poor planning, normies suffer and small businesses are going up in smoke FOREVER.
This might sound harsh, but I can guarantee you most business owners, if given the choice, would risk getting COVID-19 than face financial ruin. Men kill themselves for these sort of things and I don’t think this is done and I don’t think things will be normal for some time.
Having said that, I do require just 1 more day. Oil traded sharply lower — because America doesn’t want to partake in the OPEC + Russia oil cuts, no matter what the fucking Railroad Commissioner of Texas says. The Dow was +900 and closed slightly lower — just for the fucks and glory. Most of my positions are right around my basis, some up a little, some down. The point is, I need just 1 more day to cash in my chips and peacock out of this motherfucker like the champion that I am — Master Ace Stock Trader (M.A.S.T.), blogger extraordinaire. The chop was real, but so are these nuts.
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You’d almost think no one realizes we’re going
back into bubble territory
Yup.
I don’t know where the market will go, but I here are three things I *do* know:
1) At the market’s peak, S&P 500 PE was ~20, so even at 2750 that would still put the PE at 16 if earnings stayed at that level, which is not a huge bargain.
2) S&P 500 earnings are going to be much lower in 2020
3) There is a difference between buying assets at inflated prices and selling them to the FED, and holding assets at an inflated price becuase the FED is buying.
A wild day, Mr. Fly, filled with heroes and martyrs. It has to be expected though. +7% days like yesterday are just as scary as -7% days. This is not healthy.
Yup. I said on Sunday, that a melt-up wouldn’t surprise me. We didn’t get a melt-up, we got an explosion (which DID surprsie me). It’s liek Karen Fineman(? from Fast Money) said: a 2-3% pop with a dropping VIX would ahve been more bullish. This was very knee-jerk/short-covering.
You said nothing on Sunday!
Don’t bet against the FED. Without their interference this market would have already cratered.
We’d be at maybe S&P 1000.
The decades-old dual mandate has been “maximum employment and stable prices” and they have almost no control over the employment front this time.
So “price stability” is the least they can aim for, i.e., by not letting the stock and housing markets crash to oblivion. They have already indicated they will be more creative now than they were in post-2008. The other central banks will follow suit.
Kill me
Wild day. I started off strong, then went back to even. Finished up 2% of portfolio. I need a rest.
Hedged options going into tomorrow.
At the money puts out of the money calls.
2:1 puts.
So if the US is not jumping in oil cuts with the others, because of their ”proud”, they will crashed deep for quite a while. You need to quit your selfish attitude at some point…
OK Boris
I found the best Boris v. Rona meme yesterday.
The one good thing (and maybe the only) about being home bound all of this time is I have realized that I haven’t read this much of ibankcoin.com since 2008.
Yea caddy, and the low gas prices
$1.99/gal
Fucking shooting star. Possible spoilers: Oil deal, los stimuloso numero dos, weekly first time filers, Italy/NYC tail… what else keeps the denial turd afloat?
D’s Nutz
Small business employment is going away for a long time. Any zombie business just getting by is going forever. Over-leveraged dire situation. Consumer spending skin tight water far too cold.
I thought there would be a spike in crime but crime has actually gone down. Trump’s initiative to spend $1 trillion on grape drink and fried chicken has kept those most likely to loot satisfied. I hope the supply of fried chicken can keep up with demand otherwise it will be like Somalia out there in a few weeks.
“I thought there would be a spike in crime”
Of course you did, becuase you’re an idiot, just like most racists. It is probably due to inbreeding, to keep your race “pure”.
Family and domestic violence is way up
Same group of inbreds…
Perhaps his estimate of higher crime is due to personal observations of his family and friends.
See, this one is unoriginal thus not laugh triggering.
The “gook” one, again, was out of the blue and was matched by another hysterical (and about as awful) response.
The Fly wins again
It is amazing that racists like you always think everything is about race. Enjoy your Hitler Youth meeting.
I never got an invite but I would love to go check it out and live-stream it.
The first time you called me racists was kind of weird, so I just ignored it. However, now I am kind of fascinated that someone that talked about “grape drink and fried chicken has kept those most likely to loot satisfied” would call someone else a hitler youth.
I’ve never seen the “I’m not a white supremeist, you’re the white supremist” approach before. Kind of reminds me of Clayton Bigsby, but not exactly analogous.
Although I’m starting to see a connection here:
1) You’re a white supremist
2) You claim hostilty to white supremists
-> 3) You hate yourself. But why?
4) You’re obsessed with penises
5) You don’t like black people
-> now it all fits together… I think i can help you out:
https://1754f9d8ed4d.godaddysites.com/
Yeesh, he’s just a troll who ain’t all that good at trolling.
Live in Williamsburg?
They are all in bed with the corona! What a shame. Narcist the faggot wishing it on trump supporters. LOL.
“small businesses are going up in smoke FOREVER.”
damn straight, well forever is a long time but it might mean a generation or half or 2.
That’s part of the plan – i,e, the war on cash.
and also the small landlords are royally fucked. They will not get paid! But the big boys will.
Sooooo glad I exited the slumlording business so time ago. Better a year early than a day late.
I imagine some are buying the RE dip. Mostly a bad idea in my worthless opinion; unless you’re stealing premium properties. Hit the bid if you got some. opinion:not advice
Real estate will not rebound in last month’s dollar terms even with 0% rates.
The banks are going to steal those properties, as they did in the ’30’s.
Some of the $ in RE is there to hold value vs inflation. Some of that will trickle to bitcoin.
Lastly, Lies, Damn Lies & Statistics. The covid #’s are the 1st G in GIGO. Garbage in, Garbage out. Every hospital does things their own way. The stats are worthless and should not be relied upon.
Section 8 is guaranteed.
Walmart will be losing a ton of money in spillage/theft . That is a big draw back to self checkout. Saw a guy try to walk out with a stuffed cart he didn’t pay for a couple of weeks ago. The manager caught him at the door and took the cart.
EBT rolls should explode. JPM runs that program.
https://www.sovereignman.com/trends/that-was-fast-wells-fargo-already-ran-out-of-money-for-small-businesses-27627/?utm_medium=email&utm_source=sm_notes&utm_campaign=notes&utm_content=20200407_loan
The Republicnas **say** that they want to “add more money” to the PPP SAB program. I doubt that.
What they *really* want to do is to add more money for bigger buisnesses or other bailsouts for their lobbyist.
Who here thinks the text of the original PPP section and the text of the extension will be the same?
The text will be materially the same, assuming there is an extension at all.
Big business doesn’t need PPP loans, they have access to the bond markets and the Fed is buying directly.
https://twitter.com/michaeljburry/status/1241963119133331456?s=20
Dr.Michael Burry of Big Short stating what I have posted here for 3 weeks.
0.2% * 370,000,000 = 740,000 dead people >> 2000 dead people
Also, both of you doctors need to re-check your timelines. The stockmarket started crashing during the last week of February. The even more important bond markets – inclduing Treasuries – were also facign siginficant stress and dislocations, which got worse every week, even after repeaated FED intervention. It was onyl after their infinite bond-buying program taht those markets satbilized (using that term loosely).
Although it feels like we’ve been in lockdowns forever, they didn’t start until the second week of March.
Also, you are both underestiamting the fear that the virus created and the ensuing behavioral changes in spending at restarrants, retailers, etc. Now, you could say that this fear was generated by the media, but the truth was that even by Burry’s **conservative guesstimate** 740,000 people would have died, and at least 7.4M would have been hospitalized. Factor in the effect of that on an economy that is 70% consumer driven and get back to me.
Now in a fictionalized scenario where BabyBoomers accepted that could die suddenly and that money couldn’t save them, perhaps non-action would have left our economy undamaged.
Oh yeah, he’s the one who predicted 2000 deaths huh.
That’s just really fucking stupid.
Dr. Burry estimated .2% fatality, my estimate is less than >01% for the general population.
It doesn’t matter at this point. Decisions have been made and the damage is done. Everyone is going to arm-chair quarterback this when it’s finally over.
What will be interesting is if this comes back in the fall and government response. There is another drug similar to Hydrochloroquin called Doxycycline, which doesn’t have the irregular heart rhythm side effects. Of course these drugs are produced mostly in China and India.
The US needs a Manhatten project to make this here. This would be more practical than coming up with a vaccine that may or may not work from season to season.
Vaccines are always seasonal – can’t be helped.
The reason that we have to get vaccinated against “the flu” every year isn’t because the vaccine loses its effect: its because their are a lot of flu variants/mutations that change every year.
Even once we develop a vaccine for COVID-19, a different virus could cause the same kind of chaos. Hopefully, we would learn form our mistakes (at all levels of governement) and treat the next virus more seriously early on. A big reason why certaain Asian countries (not Chian…) faired so well is because they’ve been through this before: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-03-18/covid-19-response-better-in-countries-with-sars-mers-coronavirus
Learn… Yikes.
But, hey, the USA is #1 in our continent:
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-confirmed-cases-per-million-since-1-per-million?country=CAN+DOM+MEX+USA+CRI+PAN+CUB+HND+JAM+VCT+TTO+ABW+LCA+ATG+GTM+SLV+BMU+HTI+GRD
Assuming that you meant 0.01%, then you and Burry *aren’t* saying he same thing.
0.01% * 370,000,000 = 37,000
2000 != 740,000
37,000 != 740,000
(also, 2000 != 37,000)
And of course, since testing is so poor, no one actually know the real death rate. Most estimate that 80% are asymptomatic and ~2% of symptomatic cases die, so that woudl put the death rate at 0.4% among the general population. I could possibly
see 0.2% as well.
Also, if you *updated* estimate (0.01%) is correct, then that mean 37,000 people won’t die in the US unless 100% of the population gets COVID-19.
Could this morph into a Spanish flu situation where the secondary infections have higher fatality rates? We can’t keep shutting the economy down. More people are going to kill themselves from depression and die from stress than this virus has killed.
For the sake of discussion, I think 2% is a good upper limit for it’s lethality.
Let’s assume that the IHME model is close and that 74,000 people will die in the US. That is 0.02% of the population. I think it is safe to assume that less than 40% of the US population will get it given the measures taken, do that would put the lower limit of lethality among all infected (including asymptoamtic, undetected individuals) at 0.05%.
Still 0.05% – 2% is a big range (40x).
Hasn’t he made it abundantly clear that he’s not really concerned about the numbers while you kept throwing numbers at him?
There’s already 12000 dead and others we don’t know about.
It’s just getting started.
20×12000 is a conservative estimate IMO.
Also this virus will still be around in the fall and likely will never really go away until a vaccine is developed. The final count could easily top 1 million.
All I was trying to say was that overall fatality will be minuscule, less than .01%. – for the general population- on that basis lockdown is /was not needed, and it is counterproductive. You are hounding me for 2k figure, my estimate will be statistically closer to actual figures, no one will come closer.
I have learned why my estimate was so low, I have repeatedly mentioned here I make housecalls to very very old patients who have few outside contacts. The got the bug last.
Fail
I’m going long the yellow stuff again. Money is being printed like it grows on trees, Japan dropping 20% of GDP print press action and we are bringing another trillion or 2 here in the next month or so… and safe haven % will be increased with this next leg down since everyone is ready for it and with bonds giving little return i think gold will be a bigger safe haven than the 2008 financial crisis. In 2008 the 10 year was 2.5% now it’s .7%… No thanks. I think gold will hit 2000 in 3 months. I’m long the miners with oil also being dirt cheap to help their margins significantly. The gold coin commercials have started.. reminds me of 2008 when you couldn’t go to a commercial break without seeing a gold coin commercial. Gold wins no matter what.. just a question of how much it wins
Although printing can be inflationary the continued financial evisceration of the middle class is at least disinflationary. I’m not certain that there will be inflation. Or debasement, since so much wealth is being destroyed. I’ll be buying, but with caution.
If I’m right about that a gold rally could fizzle quickly.
Gold is no longer an inflationary hedge. It rises in value as people lose confidence in central banks.
Or reverse mortgage, cash advance, and auto dealers with lease payments.
I had an excellent day today, looking forward I see another good day for me holding UCO, energy names airlines, hospitality, will reload BA, sold calls at high this morning. Trouble will resurface after Easter, alternating with talk of ending lockdown. It’s never an easy street
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dude – more than 3/4 of the world is already working from home.
The Easter Bunny is making the Turkey God rallies from the past look like piker gains.
Brother Fly, you are legend!