I had purchased TVIX earlier today and just sold it for +7.7%. I sold it because it’s a fucking bastard ETF and it always ruins me. It felt good to finally win one in that.
Things I am avoiding.
Buying this dip in LK. Muddy Waters is short and they’re good enough for me to stay away.
Shorting too much into the hole. It’s ok to have hedges, but history has been unkind to short sellers.
Buying the dip with too much vigor.
You can buy into this decline, but don’t over do it. As a matter of fact, the best bet is probably nothing.
Lastly, I am trying with all of my might to avoid buying virus stocks. They’re running and people are sloshing gasoline on each other having a grande old time. I’m trying to avoid getting burned on a fast money trade without real relevance.
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Citron says they also go the LK report and don’t believe it. They are long now. WTF….
I’ve been bearish but avoided TVIX because it was usually overpriced (https://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2019/10/18/high-growth-stocks-shattered-pieces/#comment-564187). However, given the Wuhan virus and VIX futures sitting in the 16s, I made the call to buy. That is why TVIX “worked” the last few days: futures were too low, not just the spot VIX.
Everybody that followed my lead on TVIX is up 13-20%. That’s how to buy it: look at VIX **futures** before pulling the trigger. You’re welcome.
I’m not telling you what I rotated into. There’s really no point: if I post it and I’m right, crickets; if I’m wrong, then someone will post talking shit yet providing no useful information of their own.
Another example: despite the massive run-up of stocks last year, my call on 30-year Treasuries still outperformed stocks during the last 12 months. I guarantee you every financial advisor would have recommended some mix of mostly stock index funds and *10-yr* Treasuries. Or try to sell you a variable annuity or some other BS. (JP Morgan alone creast 1000s of these indexed products every week https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000019617&type=424b2)
I may not be the best “fisherman,” but I’m one hell of a farmer.
Your investment approach is high risk, it’s time consuming, and has negative expected returns over long periods. Your hurdle is significantly higher than passive for tax reasons. You’d have to be a hell of a positive outlier to justify the effort you put in. Yet, your specific positioning relative to market events has been at best neutral and more likely poor over the past few months if not year. The only person who should try to ‘follow’ you into a trade is a college kid with $500 in Robin Hood so he can take his licks before he has any real money to manage.
If you are talking about my trading (ie, “fishing”), then bearsih positioning is fighting the system and market momentum is hard to beat. Timing and luck play a bigger role than fundamentals. We’ll see where the high-flyers end up during the next correction.
As for my long term approach (“farming”), it’s not high risk at all. Stocks are bouyed by artificially low interest rates – but so are bonds. If stock gains were due to productivity gains like it was 50 years ago, it would be a different story. As I mentioedn before, we are more than a decade into the recovery with low unemployment, yet interest rates are lower then they were at the bottom of the last recession.
And when we *do* hit another recession, stocks will fall. However, the FED will then do it’s best to keep prices up and so they’ll buy bonds. They have already *said* that’s waht they are going to do. Until we get near 0%, the plan is bullet-proof.
Even after the Republicans won the Senate in 2016, interst spiked assuming that the deficit would explode. Well, the deficit did jump ($1,000,000,000,000.00+ now), but the FED’s QE and other programs still held interest rates in check. In 2018, when the FED tried to take the drugs away, the market went into withdrawal and they changed tactics. The tail wags the dog.
Now, I’ll admit tha I didn’t buy bonds anticipating that they would outpace a huge bull-market. The fact that this is what happenned is just witness to the rate-rigging that is going on.
Also, thanks for proving my point. YOU are the one that asked me about what my trade was: https://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2020/01/29/dont-look-now-shitcoins-running-hard/#comment-565676 So obviously you didn’t expect me to post a double-digit gain, but were instead *hoping* I would lose money so you could pester me again. Fuck off.
Yet you still sit in your mother’s basement, unwashed for days on end, sucking your thumb, wishing you were half the man Clay Aiken is.
Such an original insult, snowflake
go fuck yourself you crayon chewer
crayon chewer?
Anyway, I see why you picked your icon. You’re so sensitive… you should try anger managemnt courses.
Crayon Chewer – Someone who is extremely stupid, so stupid, in fact, that they eat crayons. This could also be a person who enjoys eating paste or other generally retarded actions, such sitting in their mother’s basement dipping Cheetos into mayonnaise and stuffing it up their nose.
Well now you are trying too hard. You should have stuck to the more general insults, because I’m clearly smarter than you.
I know it and everyone reading this blog knows it, including *you*.
I have bad typing skills, why don’t you take an aim at that?
Yes, you are very smart. Anyhow I am bailing from this abortion of a thread. Drop your testes and man-up. I’ll meet you outside in 5 minutes on the playground….
Anonymously insulting people on the internet (or threathing them) is fun for a while, but its a waste of time overall.
You say you’re “bailing”, but then throw the anonymous physical threat in there. You could be 6’5″ or 5’6″, but the threat is just as useless as the insults.
As a reminder, *you* started this shit storm:
https://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2020/01/30/back-saddle-ready-fight-coronavirus-bared-hands/#comment-565704
Was it all worth it?
If you *really* want to forget about, then I’d suggest you stop the random off-topic attacks.
They say don’t ever take sides when two people are fighting but erica sounds really dumb
But smart enough to stay away from your smelly axe wound helen