I don’t want to apply any critical thinking into the reasons for this surge. I will simply ignore any internal monologue I might have and simply accept the fact that Bitcoins are up nearly 30% the past month.
Maybe there is a reason. I don’t care at all to know about it. I am not buying shitcoins, or even thinking about it — only marveling at the fact it is still here.
The Coronavirus has now surpassed SARS and markets have already priced in forgetting about it. I sold the lot of my last virus stocks yesterday and went long three ordinary stocks, holding 85% cash. I am tempted to buy more, but also bear in mind my trading account is roughly ~25% of my overall assets, which are invested fully into a long only portfolio, quantitatively. In other words, while I am away from home and in NYC, I will probably will do nothing.
I depart tonight for NC.
I’d rather not make any predictions, other than to say things are still very fluid and complacency is something the market is comfortable with. Being defensive or even taking long positions in virus stocks is mostly viewed as macabre amongst traders, who only deem other investors fit to purchase shares of TGT into any and all scenarios. Truth is, TGT has been a great investment the past year, but it’s a very stupid existence and if my world collapsed into choosing between owning TGT or doing nothing at all — I’d choose the latter.
The puzzle is the only part of this game that I deem to be worthwhile. Separate from it is a world of grifters and mountebanks — stubborn and obstinate hard headed people with inferiority complexes laying waste across the internets.
Oh an yeah, shitcoins are higher today.
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So is PCG, BTW.
Might a recommend a dash of shit coin DASH which has been outperforming
Fly don’t feel alone in the ups and downs of life. Travel safe and get home soon.
2019-nCov virus update
Phase 1: Animal to human infection
Phase 2: Human to human infection in China
Phase 3: Human to human infection outside China (Japan, Germany, others)
This thing is worse than i thought, and worse than the CDC thought (or admitted)
“a 33-year-old (**young and healthy**) man apparently contracted the virus on Jan. 21 during a training session (**only a few hours of exposure time**)… the Chinese woman was from Shanghai (**not Wuhan**) but her parents, who are from the Wuhan region, had visited her a few days earlier. He added that she had arrived in Germany on Jan. 19, appearing not to have any symptoms (*****infected others with no symptoms, like the Chinese Minister said***), but began to feel ill on her flight home on Jan. 23. ”
Also, the fisrts sentence: “Four people who work at the same company in southern Germany have been infected with the coronavirus”
Ok, so how did the other 3 get infected?
??? -> parents living in Wuhan
-> visited daughter in SHanghai
-> Chinese women infected coworker in Germany
-> sick German coworker made others sick?
Remember that game six degrees of Kevin Bacon…?
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-germany-idUSKBN1ZR057
TL;DR
One Chines women from outside Wuhan has started a chain infection in Germany of at least 4 others **when she had no symptoms.**
The CDC and others are only screening for people **with** symptoms.
What is the trade? Buy treasuries?
TVIX (finally)
Of course, I’m guessing that you will just HODL your stocks
Hey now. I bought 100 TLT on Friday.
https://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2019/04/12/milquetoast-roaring-rally/#comment-560042
Bulls, feel free to check out TLT vs SPY since that public call.
Did you buy TVIX? I lightened up today… but I made of fuck load yesterday off the big bounce and still long a few names into tomorrow at least.
So far this dip looks a lot like the last one we saw…
No reason to sell TVIX until either my reason for buying it (nCov will be worse than expected) is either confirmed or refuted. That will be Friday at the earliest, but more likely next week.
It’s just aChina thing…
“McDonald’s Corp. and Starbucks Corp. closed thousands of stores combined in China; Apple Inc. is preparing for production delays in its supply chain; Toyota Motor Corp. halted production in the country and Deutsche Lufthansa AG halted all flights to and from the mainland.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-27/tracking-the-virus-outbreak-s-impact-on-business-and-travel
Where is that awesome new Tesla factory again?
(Sorry about spamming the comments last one before market closes):
The rally cannot end until you’ve been converted. That is just the way it works.
Right back at you.
When Investors run from stock indexes and start purchasing TLT, I’ll be selling mine to them.
she was a floozy, inter office stuff same comapany.
just now starting to calculate the potential impacts? it’ll be somewhere in between but not likely worst case.
What’s your point (besides demonstrating your mysogeny)? That you can’t get nCov from people you’ve never met?
Nothing is ever worst case (hence the word “worst”). However, a virus that can infect people with a few hours of contact while the carrier shows no symptoms is a LOT worse than SARS.
well, I suppose all men have some latent mysogeny but no that was not the point. the point is transmission without symptoms is rare and the ones that come to mind involve intimate contact such as mono or HIV. So you are perched out on a branch with this being completely novel? no intimate contact then? doubt it.
You do realize that there were *4* sick coworkers in all, right?
Also, here is worst case scenario:
1) Travelers such as this Chinese women infect others in Western airports, so that some potential infectees will have zero symptoms and (virtually) zero connections to anyone from China.
2) The death rate is much higher than the Chinese are letting on.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/british-airways-ends-all-flights-china-virus-spreads-middle-east
I don’t think we are anywhere near the above scenario, but if we are that is millions of peopel dead including *gasp* white people living in the West!
Boeing is the golden child here. Major aircraft purchase bubble at very low interest rates, a defective product costing billions; now the airline industry in general is screwed for a tertiary event that will impact for something to be counted in years. We humans are rarely boring for long.
Does Tesla actually care how the electicity to charge the (unsustainable) batteries is produced?
TSLA shorts. lol
Crazy. Quick bump to $620 on the news and then held steady until another bump straight to $650.
We’ll see hoe the 630 call affects it, but given the non-traditional nature (I beleive only one friendly anaylst), I doubt we’ll get much more insight, especailly on how nCov may affect the China sales and production.
The second spike to $650 is strange…I wonder if that was Musk buying more shares, as $650 is the trigger point ($100B market cap) for his first huge payday.
never mind…
For the crypto uninformed, with a portion of your cash holdings you can earn 8% – 12% in several US dollar equivalent stable coins. These USD stable coins generally hover between $0.99 and $1.01. They are just like a cash account (for your crypto) you can duck into after your viral wins.
You can get around 6% on your Bitcoin holdings.
https://blockfi.com/crypto-interest-account/
You would do well to understand this stuff (the future)
If I had some crypto, I could deposit it in a contract and take out a cash loan – into my bank account – in under 30 mins. No bank, no banker, no approval, just a simple crypto collateralized loan. (For details, see me in the penguin room)
The credit card companies will do well in the short term as they have their networks. The banks on the other-hand are increasingly, buggy-whips without horses. They are feeling the pressure. Even the usurious payday loaners at Western Union have to up their game.
This is a similar but more traditional variation: (and they will give you (and me) $50 to get started:
https://crypto.com/en/earn.html
To give yourself $50 when you sign up (and me), use this Referral Code: tzz6wyhh3f
Is there risk using these things?
Of course! No free lunch.
Basically, you shouldn’t enter into any agreementwith a second party unless:
1) you establish exactly waht the price/cost is
2) you establish their trustworthiness to a level consitent with the amount of money that you are risking, and
3) you know how the contract benefits them.
Once you know that, then you can assess the risk and make a decision.
The most obvious risk is that instead of earnign 8-12%, you lose 100% when they steal all your bitcoins because they are staright out theives.
The sceond risk is that it is a ponzi scheme.
The third risk is that thay are legit, but they only pays out when cryptos rise more thatn the interst rate they are paying you once you read the fine print, so you’d be better off just holding them yourselkf anyway.. I’ve read enoguh variable annuites to know how that works.
I’m on record here, and I’ll check back later in a few months to see howthis is going
risks 1 & 2 are valid concerns
risk 3 – Dollar stable coins are designed not to rise or fall.
You will be paid your interest. There is high demand for these coins short-term, so they lend them out and can afford to pay 6 – 12%.
Here are the largest stablecoins:
https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether
https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/usd-coin
https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/true-usd
Ok, the looking at the 3-point plan:
1) you know price
3) they make money because the deman for stablecoins increase with crypto volmue, so the stablecoins would be actually appreciating in value if they were allowed to float
2) if crypto prices drop, the inherent value of stablecoins will drop so it will be more difficult for the backers of the stablecoin to maintain their $1usd value
Given this, it is basically a massively-deleveraged, low-volatility cryptoplay.
If the counterparty is trstworthy (some have US banks as backers), then the risk should be low – but so is the potential reward (compared to other crypto coins). Assuming trustworthiness, then the risk is tail-risk, similar to moneymarket funds:
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/mutualfund/08/money-market-break-buck.asp
So bsacilly you have to evlauate the tustworthiness/stability of (1) the broker (blockfi.com, etc.) and the stablcoin backers (whoever they may be).
not an f’ing annuity
Varible annuities are all basically scams. You can almost always get better performance with a combiantion of other assets such as index funds, fixed annuities, and Treasuries.
FIxed-annuties are great for those living on fixed incomes, but interest rates are so low now that it is a bad time to buy them (you are effectively locking in low rates).
Also, *most* financial advisor do a poor job of explaining them to their clients, and so their clients think they are gettign a better interest rate then they are actually getting. They often conflate the interest rate/yield with the “payout” rate.
For example, if you buy a $1000 30yr treasury at 2%, you will get $20/year plus you will get your $1000 back.
If you buy a fixed-annuity with a 30-yr life and a payout rate of 4%, then you are actaulyl making **less** money. Yes, you are getting $40/year, but after 30 years your annuity is worht $0 while the Treasury is worth $1000. The actaul rate of return is closer to 1.2% in this case, not 4% as the investor is (mis)lead to beleive.