18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
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Stocks Jump on More Chinese Trade War Bullshit

This is the sort of news flow that could drive anyone crazy.Yesterday China was leaving early and Trump was kicking out their officials. Today, MEH, maybe they’re open to the idea of a trade deal.

You and I both know, if talking between two gents at a cigar lounge, none of this shit is happening. Trump will never cut a trade deal with Xi, especially with the elections and impeachment in the air. Who in their fucking right minds would cut a deal?

That being said, I’d argue this rally is in danger of dissipating and then dissolving into the sewers.

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  1. WrongView

    If your position is that only a deranged idiot would cut a deal in this situation, then I would suggest you prepare for a deal to be cut.

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  2. numbersgame

    The only think Trump cares about more than his wallet is his fragile little ego. He want to win another election. Now, if he is impeached in term two, in his reality he would have doen nothign wrong and it would not bug him as long as he still has 35%+ support from the public.

    Back to the election: he **needs** a trade deal to win. The two questions are on substance and timing. Strategically, Warren will beat Trump if the economy is weak. However, he has a chance against Warren if the economy is strong. People usually vote by the effects on their wallets more than their so-called principles. So Trump would do best to wait until Warren has a near-lock on the nomination (rather than amore econmically centrist canidate), and then strike a trade deal. He has time as long as employment and retail sales remains strong.

    However, Trump is an emotion-driven alpha male, not a strategic thinker. He makes war decisions without consulting the Penatgon, and econmic decisison against his econmic team,, and all kinds of things agisnt his lawyer’s advice (Rudy is circus ring master, not a lawyer). He is highly impulsive and easily manipulated, greatly outmatched by Xi and the Chinese. A “deal” that just means Chian buys more crops? Win-win for China.

    One note is that Trump is not at the negotiating table, his team is. They may not be as easily convinced that a bad deal is a postive (it isn’t). How will bankrupt farmers and the rest of Trump’s base feel if after almost two year, al lthe US gets out of it is a non-enforceable promise that China will od waht they were goignto do anyway: keep stealing IP, keep thier home market relatively restricted, and buy more commodities to meet their needs?

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  3. og

    Trump is thirsty for some good news, so it’s basically a coin toss.

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