How Long Can This Nonsense Continue?

My index finger is back in action — here’s me hammering away at the keyboard with just two index fingers again, reminiscing over the day when I used two middle fingers.

American futures are +75 and Europe is soft, down by 0.3%. They’re such faggots over there — it’s almost unbearable. Off with their heads.

Gold, silver, and copper are weak and oil is flat. Bitcoins suck again, and so are dollars. Everything you thought might happen didn’t and vice versa. We’re supposed to ‘go away in May’, but some have stayed and are buying up large blocks of stocks. One could only wish all of this tomfoolery will come to a conclusion one day, printing presses and rigged CPI data.

I spent nearly $4gs in grocery shopping last month — not including eating out.

Piper Jaffrey raised their price target on CMG to $530 this morning. I guess whoever was shitting in their food stopped doing so. One could only surmise their short position has been closed; therefore shitting in the food, at this point, is both superfluous and also gratuitous.

Admittedly, I’m not a fan of boring upward surging markets. I’m more of a contrarian, if anything else. When you buy, I sell. When you sell, I buy. When you do nothing, I mock you for not enjoining in all of the fun. This shit here is monotonous and also tedious. Nothing would please me more than to see a vibrant market, sharply to the downside, followed by a face ripping rally. But it seems we’re in store for more of the same.

In other news, insane shit is happening in Israel today.

900 injured, 450 by way of LIVE ammunition.

#video: Israeli army firing at a group of unarmed #GreatReturnMarch protesters – not even near the #GazaFence.
At least 18 Palestinians killed & 448 wounded from Israel live ammo today – 50 in critical/serious condition – Gaza MoH pic.twitter.com/M2wmQoebhP

— Asaf Ronel (@AsafRonel) May 14, 2018

Happy Monday.

News of Trump positioning himself sideways to suck Chinese dick has futures trading merrily this evening, up 90.

But I have more pressing news to discuss with the lot of you.

I just got done preparing beef chili and before I placed the top on — I moved the pot to better position atop the flame. Since it was angled wrong, the fucking handle was like a cauldron of molten steel and it melted my index finger like a wax candle when I touched it. For normal people, this isn’t a big deal. You either place some lotion on it, or cut the fucker off — being that you have 9 more fingers. But with me, King of the Bloggers, Champion of the People, Titan of Trade, I only type with two fingers — an index finger per hand — like I’m Dick Tracy fixing up a wrap sheet. So now, without the use of my left index finger, I find myself typing with my middle finger and I rather enjoy it.

As a point in fact, I might just type with both middle fingers, although I admit it might look odd when in public — me hammering into the computer with two middle fingers like a 1950s Dick Tracy pissed the fuck off at some sort of trade gone wrong. People might start to think I am mad.

About a month ago, the US slapped the shit out of ZTE for making illegal shipments to both N. Korea and Iran. Since then, Trump has become besties with N. Korea and he sent a delegation to China to negotiate terms for a new trade deal. The subsequent result of this action caused ZTE to shut the fuck down in America for lack of parts. Since they’re too stupid to create their own tech, if they’re not stealing ours — life sucks at ZTE.

Communication equipment players in America, such as ACIA, LITE, and OCLR got crushed due to the ban — especially ACIA, who derives 30% of their business from them.

“President Xi of China, and I, are working together to give massive Chinese phone company, ZTE, a way to get back into business, fast,” Trump tweeted. “Too many jobs in China lost. Commerce Department has been instructed to get it done!”

When news of the ban hit, lots of optical stocks got hit — but many of them for the wrong reasons. People threw babies out with the bath water without knowing who was going to be impacted by the ban. Since then, the shroud of uncertainty was lifted and we know who has the most exposure to ZTE.

This from DA Davidson will help.

DA Davidson notes the US Commerce Department is banning American firms from selling components to ZTE for seven years due to ZTE having violated terms in a sanctions violation case. The two cos they cover with the most exposure to this customer are Acacia (ACIA) and Oclaro (OCLR). ACIA derives 30% of its revenue from ZTE, while OCLR derives around 18%. Should Lumentum (LITE) close its deal to acquire OCLR later this year, around 10% of combined revenue will be derived from ZTE. All other optical cos have limited exposure to this customer.

They would stress that this ban is not related to other recent trade concerns with China, but to a history of illicit activity by ZTE. So far, damage is limited to just ZTE and its customers (primarily ACIA and OCLR in their space). Given the significant impact the sanction will have on ZTE, they expect The Company will work to resolve this issue with the US government per the settlement agreement worked out in 2017 (The US government claims ZTE has not fulfilled all of the obligations it agreed to).

One stock that might surprise to the upside if the ban is lifted is the beleaguered MXL, whose business sucks anyway and the lift could help buoy their pathetic excuse for what the deem a business.

This from the last Needham cut.

Needham cuts gtgt to $27 from $30 after MaxLinear reported light 1Q18 revenue while NG EPS beat by $0.02. However, 2Q18 revenue guidance came in much lower than their forecast reflecting headwinds in optical, legacy terrestrial tuners, MoCA and satellite solutions as well as a negative impact from the recent ZTE ban. Though they remain encouraged by the growth in MXL’s wireless infrastructure segment and the strong pipeline of new Infrastructure products, they lower their EPS estimates for 2018 and 2019 in an effort to provide a conservative model.

Net net, it appears Trump is on the verge of sucking some major Chinese dick. Look for stocks to swing higher again, given his proclivity to ‘make deals’ and his incessant desire for adoration from his beloved fans.

I got to sleep late last night, but was still entreated to a 7:30am teeth showing growl in my face by my pet coyote. She doesn’t concern herself with my schedule and couldn’t care less about my hangovers or disparate sleeping habits. At 7:30am, every day, rain or shine, I am awoken by the angriest animal in the world, growling ferociously, with gnarling teeth and a constant chattering of teeth, until I cede to her and go for a nice long fucking walk.

During this walk, she attacks everyone she sees, including inanimate objects, such as parked cars and stop signs.

When I got home I made myself some coffee, had some oatmeal, and entertained myself by reading a book. I do not read motivational books, or shitty finance books. I only read classics and I never read papered back. If and when I am reading, they are old, leather-bound, antique classics — written by the greats.

Shortly thereafter, I hopped in the car and drove an hour and half to visit my Mother and sister for lunch. It was a dimly lit second rate Italian eatery in Bay Ridge with unseasoned meatballs and greasy calamari. Instead of ordering a dish, I opted for a few appetizers, a glass of Cabernet Sauvignon, and proceeded to enter scavenger-predator mode — feeding off the slops of others. Since I am on a diet, currently cutting down to 12% body fat, I was quite judicious with my lunch.

While in Brooklyn, I took advantage and stopped by the legendary Villabate Alba bakery, located just blocks away from my old apartment in Bensonhurt. I lived there from 13-18 years old. While growing up, I never thought of this bakery as legendary, but after all of the Italians moved out and were replaced by Chinese — its lore and status has increased, especially since the quality of their goods have stood the test of time, and also because all of the Italians from Brooklyn are either dead, in jail, or in Staten Island.

I bought $60 worth of sweets for the kids and then quickly peeled the fuck off in my car, dodging some faggot who tried to panhandle me for heroin money.

At around 7pm, I went to pick up my in-laws in Manhattan. Since they are currently in between cars, they had no mode of transport to my house, other than the filthy trains. I arrived at 8pm and got home at 10:30pm, an arduous day of driving and listening to rap music at very high decibels, much to the chagrin of Mrs. Fly.

Just a short while ago, I made a large jug of coffee, ate a half cannoli, and walked the fucking dogs in my backyard. I can’t walk them in the streets this time of night without my neighbors thinking I’m insane or a burglar.

All week I’ve been thinking about my recently departed friend. I can’t seem to shake the finality of his suicide and the tragic turn of events that had transpired since he chose to become addicted to drugs. His family is in ruins and I’m not sure there’s much anyone can do. There was no funeral, no service, just a cremation, two Facebook posts by his brother, two from his friends, and poof — he’s gone. People mourned him for a day and are now back to posting pics of their disgusting food and exercise routines at the gym. Forty one years of life and over 700 friends on Facebook, and all he got for it was 4 Facebook tributes and instruction by his brother to light a candle and donate to an animal shelter — because his brother liked fucking dogs.

Happy Mother’s Day to the 3 women who read my blog. As for the rest of you, be sure to treat your wives and your mothers well this weekend. Quit being a dick; go grab your own beers this Sunday and try not to ask her to ‘whip you up something’ for dinner. Take her out to eat, you absolute faggot.

Stocks melted up into the bell. The SPY is up ~2% over the past week. My quant portfolio was up 2.1% and my active strategies are in a world of stupidity, buried in SOXS and DUST positions. At least I got some of it back today. I look forward to another fun filled week of extreme nothingness next week, only interrupted by the occasional snooze fest.

It’s Friday and the weather is glorious. I’ll be spending the balance of my day at the gym, in shopping malls, driving to and fro, avoiding the riff- raff at all expenses.

In case you’re out of gift ideas for Mom, I highly recommend getting her my books; they’re real crowd pleasers and the ladies love Le Fly prose. It’s both worldly and magnificent, tales of Wall Street thru the eyes of a true space alien magician (SAM), not one of those frauds who write in fucked up run-on sentences.

At any rate, it’s hard to not be pleased with life — as there are so many things to explore and enjoy. You don’t need to be rich, might I remind you, to enjoy a dozen briny oysters with a cold bottle of white wine, or read a great book, or listen to some great music, or see an interesting movie, or paint a picture, or go on a long hike, or see something new — experience human creativity and ingenuity. I mean this sincerely, depression is debilitating and can lead to ruin. Often times people get depressed due to repetition in lifestyle, stuck in a routine that is unfulfilling. Do something about you it faggots — you’ll feel better in the morning. Trust me, I am a Dr.

Any old traders remember back in 99-2000 when brick and mortar stocks were getting poleaxed because of the dot com, ‘new economy’, rippers? Well, it’s happening again. Look no further than PG, GE and CPB. I compiled a list of these names in Exodus and was flabbergasted to see steady revenues and earnings, yet a contraction in valuation.

Perhaps this is tied in with rising rates? With higher rates, the divvies for these names are less attractive, plus they need to pay higher borrowing costs on debt, which reduces earnings?

I’d like your two cents if you have some. It’s also worth noting that these stocks would serve as a great hedge against the end of this tech driven bull run, should it over occur.

Here’s $1.6t in mega cap stocks in a bear market for the past year.

Cramer dubs the CEO of NVDA ‘the Einstein of our era’. That’s some disingenuous bullshit right there. Nevertheless, the stock has been on an unbelievable tear the past 3 years, up more than 1,100% off the backs of an explosion in AI, cryptos, and gaming.

Even still, the fucking stock is trading 15x sales, a number that is absurd as much as it is moronic. The irony here is the very company that fueled the crypto mining craze is in fact in a bubble of its own right, and no one else is seeing it that way. We’re in a new paradigm. Nvidia is the future. Its CEO is Einstein. They cannot lose.

Fuck you. I’ve heard that before.

Here’s Cramer nearly ejaculating over NVDA this morning, wrangled by those damned ‘chowder head’ analysts who don’t get NVDA, then later admitting the stock had run up too much and needed a break.

Here's Cramer mad at 'chowder head' analysts for publishing negative things about $NVDA pic.twitter.com/Hp8w1X6ZdV

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) May 11, 2018

And now here's Cramer again saying the stock had run up a little too fast and needed a pullback. $NVDA pic.twitter.com/uoB9FqWJK4

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) May 11, 2018

The stock is off by 2% early going. In order to get my underwater SOXS trade back in the green, I really would appreciate a staggering drop here in NVDA. Thanks.

Blockchain week begins today in NYC, lasting until the 17th, the first of its kind to hit the big apple, where celebrities from the tech space and music will opine on the great SHITCOIN experiment that has so many people ditching their checking accounts in favor of a digital currency. Why, a Mr. Snoop Dog is scheduled to perform for the good folks at Ripple next week. I hear it’ll be quite the wild party. Crack open your cold storage units and bring your flash drives out to the event and show off your portfolios to all of the pretty AI women.

Meanwhile, a gentleman named ‘Sam Doctor’ from an organization named Fundstrat, said he believes the ‘raw power’ of bitcoin will propel the crypto currency to $36,000 by the end of 2019, with a totally normal range of $20,000-64,000.

Meanwhile, the crypto space is crashing this morning, fire engorging itself from each and every crevice of the sector, with mountainous losses found in BTC, ETH, XRP and many others. There was a rally, recently, and now it all went splat. See for yourselves.

Futures are flat, and gold is edge lording higher, likely due to the rapid descent of the crypto world — a wanton slap in the face to all of the nerds attending blockchain week in NYC.

Happy Friday everyone — try not to trip, slip, and fall into any murderholes today.

This is a good example of the very rich being very naive and also retarded. Tim Draper has made so much money in his numerous VC dealings, his ego refuses to acknowledge the undebatable fact that Elizabeth Holmes from Theranos was in fact a giant scam and she’s a criminal.

Investors have been zeroed out.

Tim Draper, defender of frauds, retard edition part 1 pic.twitter.com/gM8Z1076BB

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) May 10, 2018

Tim Draper, defender of frauds, retard edition part 2 pic.twitter.com/ehd0ffFaI5

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) May 10, 2018

You can data mine all you want and you will never find a more highly valued semi in the large cap space than NVDA. I get it, MUH gaming and crypto and the company is growing fast — but what in the actual fuck are you people thinking holding this shit at 15x sales?

Do you even know where this shit is coming from? Talk about multiple expansion — if you own this stock in your fund now — you do not deserve to manage money — you fucking idiot.

NVDA reported after the bell and of course crushed.

NVIDIA beats by $0.39, beats on revs; guides Q2 revs above consensus (260.13 +4.35) Reports Q1 (Apr) earnings of $2.05 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.39 better than the Capital IQ Consensus of $1.66; revenues rose 65.6% year/year to $3.21 bln vs the $2.88 bln Capital IQ Consensus. Non-GAAP Gross Margins were 64.7% vs. 59.6% a year ago For fiscal 2019, NVIDIA intends to return $1.25 billion to shareholders through ongoing quarterly cash dividends and share repurchases. Co issues upside guidance for Q2, sees Q2 revs of $3.04-3.16 bln ($3.1 bln +/- 2%) vs. $2.95 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins are expected to be 63.3 percent and 63.5 percent, respectively, plus or minus 50 basis points.

At present values, NVDA is trading +516% above its historical p/s median. Their p/s is up from 4x to 15x over the past three years. In comparison to NVDA, highly valued stocks like AVGO, TXN, and NXPI are dirt cheap at 4-6x sales. If forced to choose just one short and hold it for 2 years, it would be NVDA.