Any old traders remember back in 99-2000 when brick and mortar stocks were getting poleaxed because of the dot com, ‘new economy’, rippers? Well, it’s happening again. Look no further than PG, GE and CPB. I compiled a list of these names in Exodus and was flabbergasted to see steady revenues and earnings, yet a contraction in valuation.
Perhaps this is tied in with rising rates? With higher rates, the divvies for these names are less attractive, plus they need to pay higher borrowing costs on debt, which reduces earnings?
I’d like your two cents if you have some. It’s also worth noting that these stocks would serve as a great hedge against the end of this tech driven bull run, should it over occur.
Here’s $1.6t in mega cap stocks in a bear market for the past year.
I’m just so sick and tired of all this. My preferred remedy, at least for myself, would be to plunge deep into Nomi Prins.
XOM should also be added to that bear market “old man stock” list.
It’s the only oil company people 70 years and over know about and has been dead money for a year+
Cereal stocks crushed because people eat snack bars or buy breakfast at the coffe house, or just skip the meal altogether.
Food and beverage stocks crushed becuase they have no pricing power.
Hasbro crushed because of TRU bankruptcy
However, one issue I have with that basket being a hedge is that the only plus the have is that they have already fallen. So there’s probably good and bad stocks mixed together.
Nonsense… all of it.
Look at KHC. 90 to mid 50s in less than a year. Is no one eating catsup? Or mac and cheese? The 4.25% divvy looks safe to me….
If you are looking for a hedge agianst a bear market, you can forget the charts and price history and just look at the valuation.
Outside of the tax windfall, KHC makes $4B/year in net income. I think the dividned is safe and the company probably isn’t in danger of a revenue collapse. However, it isn’t really growing, either. With a valuation of $72B, that’s a PE of 18, which seems more than fair. What do you think a fair market cap is for KHC?
Too much value. They need to spend their cash on the millenials.
They need to rebrand (blockchain, coins, 3d) and do ICO.
GE need to start building a Westworld kinda park.
I got shitload of ideas. They should go on a twitter for brainstorming like Elon does. If TSLA can branch out to candies maybe PG could make cars?
On a serious note, I think that TSLA flamethrowers, etc. are an excellent marketing play that other companies can immitate.
Also, I think that the key indicator to TSLA’s *long-term* success is how their heavy truck plays out, not the Modle 3. Consumer customers will overpay for prestege and exclusivity, but commercial truck buyers really want performance and value. So the Model 3 could be successful but for a 1-3 years, but doesn’t say much about the long term (10+ years). However, if their commercial truck is successful, then I’ll be convinced of TSLA’s long term feasability as an automotive manufacturer..
Consumer non durables are getting creamed.
Could this be like retail was in November? Hitting lows before hitting highs?
One thing is certain, consolidation is coming.
Regards
Chuck Bennett
Ps, anyone watching VHC from last week ?
watching VHC religiously….what are your thoughts?
Think it’s being manipulated….
1)Dividend+rising rates
2)Low beta in a bull market sucks (people rotating into higher risk)
3)old people dying
4)deregulation. Regulation in the current system contrary to popular belief helps big companies who can use their lobbying power and corporate lawyers to create expensive industry standard regulations that hurt the smallest companies the most and helps them keep or gain market share, so deregulate and that advantage goes away.
BOOM