BEARS DISEMBOWELED; THE TURKS, ITALIANS AND OTHER LOSERS BTFO

I mean this in this post disrespectful way imaginable: no one gives a shit about Italian bond yields, till meatballs bounce. Also, the Turks have never been more fucked than they are now — and that’s a fact.

Turkey’s Lira blowing out to record lows.

Back to Italy. Everyone is making such a big deal over the fact that Italy has the most debt in Europe, and is entirely fucked long term, and now rates are skyrocketing higher. Not only that, the German-Italian spread is bloooooowing the fuck out. Not only that, the contagion is spreading to the other PIGS, mainly Portugal, Spain and Ireland. French yields are edging higher too — ECB crisis style, amidst sharply lower yields for the good balanced sheet Eurocucks.

So if you look closely at the set of metrics above — it bodes poorly for the overall health of the ECB. In theory, the ECB is supposed to be this giant block of nations, all for one and one for all. But we’ve seen the balkanization of the alliance in numerous occasions, only mended together by unchecked spending and balance sheet rejiggering — subjugating the Germans to the debtFAGS represented by the PIGS (Portugal, Italy, Greece, Spain).

The devious trick is getting you, the unwashed hamburger eater, believing this is going to lead to another black swan event — sending stocks tumbling lower. After all, Argentina is collapsing, foreign banks are getting hammered, and our consumer cyclicals and other old man stocks are getting blown out — all due to this new paradigm that demands higher rates because of some imaginary inflation risk.

On paper, I should be bearish. But my muscle memory over the past 10 years demands that I chalk this crisis up to more nothing — a mere way station on the path to even more hedonism and even more riches. It’s easy to get bearish — because logic demands that we should be worried about things like math and human emotion. However, at least for now and until proven otherwise, the prevailing emotion is greed through higher prices.

Plus, we got the fictitious China trade war figured out now.

“I think we’ve made very meaningful progress,” he told CNBC’s “Squawk Box.” “Now it’s up to both of us to make sure that we can implement it. We came away with a very comprehensive framework agreement that needs to be implemented, but has lots of different aspects,” he said. Asked by CNBC’s Becky Quick whether investors should view his comments over the weekend that a trade war has been put on hold as a glass half-full or half-empty scenario, Mnuchin said, “It’s completely half-full.”

Futures are +228. Happy Monday.

Any ideas you had making money on the short side are effectively dead, starting with tomorrow’s trading session. Dow futures are +210, Nasdaq +55.

The Trump administration is declaring victory over China tonight, an end to the tumultuous trade war of 2018 that effected absolutely no-one. If there’s one common theme with this Trump regency it is a lot of hat but very little cattle. Sometimes he tries to get cattle, but then they’re quickly stolen from him.

Either way, the status quo has prevailed and globalism is alive and well, a BTFO for the midwestern fuckover states who so desperately desire to become employed by grist mills and steel factories for American blue collared arm sawed the fuck off plebeian labor.

I’d rather be dead, than see my son’s work at a fucking grist mill.

I expect my positions will fly higher tomorrow.

As you were.

Here’s some data to get you prepared for the week ahead, courtesy of Exodus. You fuckers should be eternally grateful.

Here are stocks straddling the 200 day moving average. I know a lot of you are 200 dayFAGS, who love to buy stocks at this key support line. Some of these stocks might be breaking above the 200 day too. If I wanted to, I could simply screen for technicals and find out which one’s are strongest — but I don’t feel like doing it.

Here are stocks that produce a chart of consolidation. After fiddling with the moving averages, I’ve digitized what you cavemen search for in your 10 hours charting sessions in a click of the mouse. Here are stocks with nice charts. Again, I could further enhance this, and so could members of Exodus, but we don’t feel like doing it right now.

Here are stocks that really do well in the month of June. There are a lot of ways to skin this cat — I simply went for high percentage win rate and sorted by stocks with the most data. Looks like people like to get drunk in June.

Here are stocks that are short squeezing higher — ranked high in technicals with a large percentage of the float sold short.

Lastly, here’s an interesting exercise. I like to profile for what’s working inside the platform. On the issue of buying stocks that are heavily shorted, there is always debate whether or not these stocks actually do better than stocks that are not shorted. Here is the data.

All stocks, 5,000+: median YTD return +0.32%

Stocks with less than 10% of shares sold short: median return +0.29%

Stocks over 10%: Boom +3.12%

It’s with this sort of reverse engineering that I found the perfect combination or profile for investable stocks. This method is used in my quantitative strategies, posted every month.

Late last week all of the rumor milling had to do with China telling America to fuck off and how a deal was not gonna happen. We had Peter “Fuck China” Navarro out there — talking shit — cursing out people at the dinner table, and of course the Chinese Minister who roundly rebuked the report that China would slash the trade deficit by $200b.

Lo and behold, that’s exactly what the fuck is going on here. Peter and his “China Last” delegation has been showing slideshows of US military might and how we drop bombs on people for small shit — like looking at the US sideways. Our intimidation campaigns appear to be bearing some delicious fruit. The homohammers from CNBC, regrettably, now report that China is gonna slow their roll and reduce the speed by which they fuck the Statue of Liberty.

Source: CNBC (dick handlers)

China and the U.S. have mutually agreed to “substantially reduce” the yawning trade imbalance between the two countries, a joint statement read on Saturday, in a move that will involve the Chinese boosting more of what they buy from American producers.

Amid fears of a global trade war and rising tensions between the world’s two largest economies, both China and the U.S. have entered bilateral talks to bolster cooperation. In a statement issued by the White House, both parties forged a “consensus on taking effective measures to substantially reduce the United States trade deficit in goods with China.”

Just a day ago, both countries were sharply at odds over a claim, made by White House Economic Advisor Larry Kudlow, that China would move to cut its trade deficit with the U.S. by $200 billion annually.

Left unclear was exactly how much the Chinese would boost its purchases of U.S. goods. The Wall Street Journal reported on Saturday that American negotiators fell short in their efforts to get the Chinese to commit to an exact deficit reduction figure, with the two sides bickering all night over the statement’s language.

The trade imbalance has long been a thorny and intractable topic in the Sino-US relationship. Commerce Department data recently showed that imbalance between what China buys from the U.S. and vice versa hit a record in 2017 at over $375 billion.

On this news, I expect ancient wooden machinery to be wheeled into the city square first thing Monday morning. The townspeople will gather and dissidents will be rounded up for expeditious clippings from the dick guillotine.

JUST IN: In joint statement with the US, China says it will “significantly increase purchases of United States goods and services” to “help support growth and employment in the United States.”https://t.co/vpyWbVRRy9 pic.twitter.com/OZ0CU8vqPJ

— CNBC Now (@CNBCnow) May 19, 2018

Top picks: BILI, IQ, ZX

My enemies are making scores of money in their SOXS positions, all at my expense. I am literally paying for them to laugh at me. Meanwhile, I just snapped my winning streak, like a cold, hard, pretzel, booting out of UCTT for a humiliating 10% loss. I had such high hopes when I bought UCTT. I envisioned myself out there in the woods and the winds, running freely amidst the gazelles — profiting from the hubris of others. Alas, it wasn’t meant to be. Instead, I sit here, downtrodden and sullen, sipping on lukewarm coffee, with tears streaming down my face (cue that music and shit below) onto the keyboard below.

God willing, said tears will cause an electric shock and put me out of my misery. What an ironic end it would be.

Meanwhile, I sold the BZUN earlier today — I am sure my enemies are getting into it now for the true move higher, as I am the Dennis Gartman of blogs — a curse and a insidious stain on trading turrets throughout the galaxy.

In addition to UCTT, I am getting face punched in BILI, ENPH, VALE, and even IQ. When does it end? Is it possible for profits to escape me once again? These questions, and more, shall be answered in a shocking Shakespearian revelation during next week’s blogs, in The Fuckery of Fly’s Life — starring George “The Animal” Hamilton.

Over on the quant side of my investments, she is up another 0.55% — mocking me. I feel as if my robotic mind is purposely trying to cajole me into punching it in its face. How is my robotic mind trading better than my actual mind? Is it, perhaps, due to a chemical imbalance that leads me to ruin?

Tune in next week for these answers.

One cannot stop the progress of Le Fly.

I sold BZUN for +10%. Proceeds shift to cash.

In case you thought the US-Chinese trade talks were going swimmingly, think again fucked face. The Ministry spokesman just came out and denied the rumors that China would acquiesce to Trump and reduce its trade deficit by $200b.

Source: CNBC

China has not offered to cut its trade surplus with the U.S. by $200 billion, contrary to reports, China’s Foreign Ministry said Friday.

Ministry spokesman Lu Kang said that the claims were not true while speaking at a daily news briefing about the ongoing trade talks between the world’s two largest economies, according to Reuters.

“This rumor is not true. This I can confirm to you,” the spokesman told the press. “As I understand, the relevant consultations are ongoing and they are constructive,” he adding, without going into further detail.

Various news outlets, citing anonymous sources, reported Thursday that China offered to meet President Donald Trump’s demand of the trade surplus cut, which included increased purchases of American goods.

As a result, futures have gone lower — almost 33 Nasdaq removed from the national treasury.

Gold is down, copper is down, God damn it even oil is down. The dollar, however, is up — due to flight to safety. It’s starting to look like a do-nothing Friday is in the cards.

To be honest, the market feels like it wants to go away because it’s May. Then again, every time I get the idea to short stocks I get my cock chopped off. Maybe micro-analyzing each and every tick is overtly unhealthy for the human spirit. Perhaps we should eat more sandwiches, laugh more at weak people, and drink more protein shakes.

Happy Friday, fucked faces.

All of the top stocks in Exodus are oilFAG related. Brent is trading $80, in spite of seasonality trends suggesting we should top out now. Downstream stocks are performing best, even though one might surmise the drillers should do best.

What the fuck is going on here?

Pic related.

As usual, 99.9% of you will have nothing to say — because you’re dumb and unable to converse you anti-social pricks. Had this post been about Blohnald Drumpfskins or Billary Claptin — you’d be spewing absolute shit, absolutely.

Fuck off.

I am batting 1.000 over the past week and there’s nothing you can do about it. I intend to sell BZUN tomorrow, when it gaps open again, and place those funds into either more IQ or more BILI.

I tell you these things, in spite of your hatred for me, because you have small financial means and can do nothing to stop me. In your head, you’re winning, but you never actually stepped into the arena with me.

I will be 5 for 5 when I sell BZUN tomorrow and 6 for 6 when I sell BILI and 7 for 7 when I sell IQ — and there’s nothing that you or your stupid friends can do about it.

Good Day.

Don’t worry gents, this is ‘the art’ of the deal.

Stocks dip to session lows after President Trump says he doubts that China trade negotiations will be successful https://t.co/564PIzX650 pic.twitter.com/Kswj0CAK79

— CNBC Now (@CNBCnow) May 17, 2018

If you cannot see the art, it is because you are not an artist, which is fine. Go back to your clay homes and make your family a giant pot of steamed rice and just wait for the artist to complete his picture. When he is ready, like magic, everything will be better.

In other news, Trump’s China hating guy, Peter Navarro, has been cursing out people left and right during talks. This is not art, but the stick that goes with the carrot. Trump tossing Navarro out there in the wild, with the Chinese, is like tossing a PTSD Vietnam vet into the jungles of Hanoi to discuss terms on a new private prison to be built for foreign nationals.

During one trade meeting at which Chinese officials talked at length about history and international relations, Navarro used an expletive in telling his Chinese counterparts he did not need a history lesson, according to a source briefed on the exchange.

However, another source with personal knowledge of the discussions said Navarro did not “curse out” Chinese officials and described the bilateral discussions as “cordial.” The person suggested that the story about Navarro started as part of a coordinated “shivving campaign” that points back to Mnuchin.

Navarro has problems with how Mnuchin has negotiated with Chinese officials, a source familiar with the discussions said. The person said Navarro took issue with Mnuchin canceling team trade discussions in Beijing and negotiating with the Chinese delegation himself. The trade advisor has also taken issue with the path of the talks, believing the Treasury secretary is not doing enough to protect U.S. intellectual property, the source said.

The Treasury Department did not immediately respond to a request for comment about the apparent tension between Navarro and Mnuchin.

The uncertainty over Navarro’s role clouds critical Washington trade talks between the U.S. and China, which follow a separate round of negotiations in Beijing earlier this month. The world’s two largest economies are looking to defuse escalating tensions that have prompted fears about heavy tariffs and a potential trade war.

In a statement Wednesday, the White House said Mnuchin would lead the talks, along with Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and United States Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer. The White House added that “additional senior administration officials” would attend, but did not name Navarro.

On Wednesday, a White House official told CNBC that “Peter is going to be participating in the event” and he is “part of the talks.”

Trump has long pledged to crack down on China for alleged unfair trade practices and theft of U.S. intellectual property by Chinese companies. But he seeks to do so without retaliatory measures from China that threatened to damage the U.S. agricultural industry.

According to a list obtained by CNBC, China’s delegation in Washington includes more than a dozen high-ranking government officials managing the country’s central bank, agricultural policy and telecommunications industry.

Axios also reported that Navarro cursed out Mnuchin too, all part of the pageantry of good cop, bad cop, being acted out for the Chinese. The way it works is very simple: unleash Peter on them in a room with no hope of Mnuchin. Negotiations will be sideways, after 30 minutes of Peter telling the Chinese how much he hates them. Then, like a white knight from an evil bond film, Mnuchin will appear and save the day. The Chinese will take less, fearing Navarro might get his way and give them nothing at all.

‘Tis, the art of the deal, folks.

Markets were down more than 100, now off by just 60 on news of this article being rumored to have been written.