iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
18,723 Blog Posts

MARKETS ROUTED — TRUMP LIES, MARKET CRIES

Let’s lay our cards on the table and do a proper workflow of what this market is predicated on.

Great economic growth, tech, innovation, lower taxes, free cash flow, momentum.

All of the above is at risk, all of a sudden. The auto-catalyst of the negative feedback loop is real. Trump’s lies about working on a China deal in flaccid attempts to buoy stocks have hurt sentiment more than people realize. Those short term rallies have all been negated and now we’re in a position where retail sales, of all things, can further push us down the train tracks in front of speeding trains.

The SAAS sector is most important when analyzing risk and growth. Those stocks were staggered by 10% today. HUBS is your main tell.

In private markets, VC funds regularly fund companies at 30x. That’s an issue now.

Semis are part and parcel of any tech rally. NVDA is your tell.

The FAANG stocks are in a bear market.

Those are facts. If you’re betting on a bounce of that this sell off is temporary, you’re simply guessing. We will reassess the market and try to play the upside when stocks trade up. Playing mean reversion during a brutal tape like this is extremely hard and low probability.

My core thesis for the moment is for lower rates. Hence, I am 10% long TMF and the rest cash. I’d love to play the upside, but nothing in this immediate tape has proven to be constructive. You might disagree. If you’re unable to see in more than 1 dimension and only possess the cognitive ability to act upon first order thinking, this post will be frowned upon. But for those open minded and able to implement lattice structured decisions, BEHOLD THE FOLLOWING CHART.

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16 comments

  1. bennyhill

    BRK.B shares are the place to hide folks, barely down today and still +10% for the year

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  2. Lyndon Keltner

    Today’s droppage probably has more to do with Trump lying about the Finnish president telling him to rake trees and stuff.

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    • Lyndon Keltner

      FWIW, I give this presidential quote 3.5 WTFs:

      “I was watching the firemen the other day, and they were raking areas. They were raking areas! They’re raking trees, little trees like this — nut trees, little bushes, that you could see are totally dry. Weeds! And they’re raking them. They’re on fire.”

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  3. it is showtime

    Pass the turkey

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  4. skunkbuttstew

    A bear market it is. Last rally was a dead cat bounce fo sho.

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  5. the hungry dog

    More Blood in the streets. Time to start looking for some bargains!!

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  6. ferd

    In order to position himself properly, Lyndon would like to know if that is a chart pattern is termed a “mushroom” or a “flaccid” schlong?

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  7. soupbone

    What else to do while waiting for the G20 and the Fed? with people who get bored immediately. Have a nice correction complete with all the drama and effects that are required to make it happen.

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  8. irma vep

    Brilliant synopsis. I don’t do the fancy stuff. $TGT and $GE. Do these make me a bottom feeder? I’m out of excess dry powder. What is in the armory, stays in the armory for now. Maybe for a long while.

    https://youtu.be/gjo-lHXlp7k

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  9. chuck bennett

    I don’t see a goddamn chart

    Wtf?

    Regards

    Chuck bennett

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  10. fxtradepro

    I for one believe a deal is close with China. I don’t think Trump would be spewing false rumors unless something were on the horizon. For what it’s worth, “The Mooch” also thinks something is announced in the coming weeks.

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    • numbersgame

      “I don’t think Trump would be spewing false rumors unless something were on the horizon.”

      You are strong with the Force, young troll

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  11. jbandy

    Welcome to the dark side. Now don’t sashay back over to the retarded bull side so easily.

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  12. chuck bennett

    I agree with fxtrader pro. F your feelings, they don’t matter. Like him or not, orange chetto god ends up being correct 99.9 percent of the time.

    All you kids know I’m right. However , if it takes 2 weeks, Dow might be 10 thousand by then. Lol

    Regards

    Chuck Bennett

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  13. lamouche

    Trump warned you on October 30 ” If you want your Stocks to go down, I strongly suggest voting Democrat. They like the Venezuela financial model, High Taxes & Open Borders! Vote democrat in the midterms and the stock market will drop.”

    I guess you’re tired of winning.

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