Even with my SOXS position, my portfolio took a ~4% drawdown today. Most of my holdings were at or near my stops, so I had no choice but to sell.
The obvious questions now arise.
Are you afraid of missing the rally?
No, because I don’t deserve to enjoy a rally. I bought too early; therefore, I am out.
Why not hold and hope for higher prices?
I am past the point of hoping. My losses, although terrible at 4%, could double if markets really knife lower. The risk reward isn’t there for me right now.
Will you short or buy more gold or bonds?
No. Gold and bonds are barely up and not showing bullish signs. It’s still up, but not enough to warrant more purchases. Too late to short, especially into Thanksgiving.
Plus, let’s not forget, 75% of my money is in a quant fund, which is down — but not nearly as bad as high beta tech. I will reassess the quant fund at the end of November.
Bottom line: Cash is a position and this set up is equal to gambling. I lost the initiative by being so long into this meltdown and have lost the privilege of being able to take a high risk position.
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You bought me out? No, I buy YOU out… (sorry, I’m in full ‘Mo Greene’ mode today Cap’n). Arrrr…
By the way, thanks fer flyin me flag Cap’n!
Crazy how strong TSLA and NIO have been through all of this.
As I’ve mentioned before, you’re trading discipline is impressive, Fly.
Most of my positions are options, so losses are self-limited. Also, my xlf puts have barely moved, but that should change if there if the bear-market rally doesn’t materialize this week. However, I’m still more long than short at this point.
Where art thou TURKEY GODS?!?!?!?!
Covered rest of ROST.
My 0-gain in my short XLF lead me to some studying. The losses seem more widespread than they are, because of the massive market cap of FAA(N)G. Look at 1-week and 1-month performance of sectors and stocks, and you will see what I mean: major sector rotation. The fact that XLF was unchanged and that NASDAQ losses were double SPY losses today emphasizes this point.
The fact that many retail traders own/trade the same popular (mostly tech) stocks or other hig beta (MJ) stocks leads me to beleive that this is a amanufactured shake-out meant to get retail traders to fold their longs or to get margin calls. So this was a manufactured drop, and I’m more confidant of my longs (with a bearish mid-term prognosis)