I sold FXP, ERY, QID, and FAZ this morning, in spite of the market being +400. It’s false thinking to believe the market cannot go higher — just because I happened to be short stocks and the market is up 400. For all we know, the market can go up another 400 tomorrow, on news that President Bolton invaded Damascus and bombed Moscow.
Nevertheless, I took some minor losses on my ill-fated trades. Truth is, I have a penchant for wanting markets to be destroyed. No idea why — but I have some suspicions.
I had a hard time putting the money back to work, because of fear of being wrong again. So I’ll keep it small until my urinal shadows whisper something unusual to me. For now, I bought some ZX — a Chinese auto play. Maybe Ford will buy them, now that China is opening up to foreign investment.
I’m still long EVGN, LEDS, and BB — an amalgamation of complete shit; but I need that shit to buoy the fuck higher. Please.
If the Gods truly hate me, stocks will reverse lower today and I’ll be left holding onto my nuts. But if that should happen, I will find solace in knowing the universe is working against me, which might offer a magnitude of closure for me — an explanation of sorts as to why certain things seem to happen to only me.
Off to see about a gigantic omelet.
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Those who gamble in markets cannot go wrong w/ buying some russian assets at these prices. I have no reco, just saying the MOEX/MICEX were slammed down by the usual riggers. Russia will rally right back up.
Might be the first time I’ve ever agreed with you.
Doesn’t matter why or how, but whenever the cheapest market goes down the most, it’s an automatic buy.
Well fine. As long as you’ve virtue signaled that everyotherfrigginthing that he’s ever uttered us wrong, we won’t watchlist you.
Gartman 2.0
Sometimes I wonder why I waste my time on this site.
Then Fly throws out some metaphysical poetry like this and I know.
Happy omletting.
Le Fly,
Step in to ticker EMTY. Goldmine … inverse ETF to profit from the decline of retail. Genius.
Props to whoever throught of that ticker. Also, a fan of the *idea* but very suspicious.
– I’ve noticed that new ETFs are thrown out meeting one of two criterias: either they have a twin ETF with the opposite position (QLD/QID) or they a betting on an old idea where the easy money has already been made.
Think about it: every trade has two sides. So while retail investors go long, Credit Suisse and Societe General took the other side of this one. Remember what happenned the last time retail investors went up against Credit Suisse (XIV)? I’m almost tempted to short it based on this alone.
– the second reason I’m suspicious is that while they describe the constituents (http://www.bricksandmortarindex.com/faq.html) making up the Index that they are betting against, I couldn’t *find* the actual constiuents of the index. Also, it is a Solactive Index, but is not lsited here: https://www.solactive.com/equity-indexing/solactive-indices/
The constiuents might not be who you think. As an example, note that the top 2 holdings of the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) are Shutterfly and Netflix.
Take a look at the lifetime performance of the fund so far (-11% in ~5 months), and ask yourself why that is. I’m not sure myself, but if you can’t figure it out, you shouldn’t be investing in it.
It shorts this Index:
http://www.proshares.com/funds/emty_index.html
Oh, ok. Well, that does look like what you’d expect.
I looked here: http://www.bricksandmortarindex.com/constituents.html and that just gave a prospectus so I stopped looking.
I’m not going to short it, but I’m still hesitant to go long. I suspect that many of those names have already been hammered so maybe there isn’t that much downside left.
You could maybe pick out a few names, either ones that you think can’t go much lower or ones that you think could go up and then go long with them (smaller positions) as a hedge. You should certainly check out each of those stocks and see which ones were driving the -11% performance of the index. Good luck
Ah, behold the great Gartman!
Holding steady, short+hedged. Given the limp follow-through, wouldn’t surprise me if we actaully ended the day red.
How are you short? Short stocks? SPY? or puts?
Major positions:
short NFLX stock+long put spreads, long AMZN vertical put spread, hedged with long AAPL calls, long MU calls+stock (the stock was recently bought below 50).
So the hope is that NFLX goes down and then the AAPL + MU calls go to zero.
NFLX earnings is next week. It should be a monster move this time. I am expecting $250, but $330 isn’t out of the question, so I”m still thinking about the best way to play the options so that I profit on a big down move, but stay relatively nuetral on an small down move or up move (I’ll give up the profit on a small down move to avoid a big loss on an up move – options allow you to do things like that).
long aapl calls is a hedge v. amzn put spds and short nflx stock and long pt spds?
curious about the math behind that one.
Everything has to go right for this to work. why anyone would put on trades with limited upside is beyond me. My 2c
edn
Stocks are well correlated. Tech stocks correlated even more so. I’m a believer that valuation eventually comes into play, and AMZN and NFLX are vastly overvaluated on the sole basis that people know these brands and that they have good products. It will only take a downtrend before analyst hop on board the bear train and these stocks will be crushed.
In the last 3 years, AMZN made $6B in profit and NFLX made $866M. You can talk growth all you want, but how long will it take to catch up to AAPL$147B 3-year profit? NFLX earnings are just a rounding error in comparison to AAPL Can you argue against that? It’s f***ing insane.
Here’s something else. NFLX revenue is $11.6B, and it is increasing at ~30%/year. That means it if you take NFLX’s gigantic cash burn down to zero, and zero out ALL of it’s expenses so that revenue=100% profit, it would still take 4 years for it to match AAPL’s profit.
Again for emphasis: 3-year profit
NFLX: $868,248k
AMZN: $6,000,000k
AAPL: $147,432,000k
ok. so short FANG with a A hedge. We are likely going to 2800 first. Good luck.
So what are your major positions? Long SPY?
long 19 positions for the intermediate term. common and call options. Too many to list. Also tactical /ES and /NQ longs. took +40 /ES today.
was asking about put spreads and calls on different stocks as a “hedge”
for example, I can pick 2 different AMZN puts spreads which will move in opposite directions if the stock stays in the range between them. But it sounds like you’ve got it all figured out. good luck
BOOM
Numbers just got cucked
I’m pretty sure that you couldn’t even follow the above conversation. So are you going to tell us your positions now, or only after they go up?
“I bought at the bottom, but didn’t post it.”
“…”
That’s what I thought.
Anyway, what hedging means is that while my trading account took losses in NFLX and AMZN, I had gains in AAPL and MU (up 5.35%, 3rd in the NASDAQ 100) to make up for them
I too wish the markets to get destroyed.. i open a shitload of accounts when the market goes down.
This market, I believe, is of the following mentality:
Near The Lows: Hey, I recognize this. Taking a shot long BTFD!
Off The Lows, Eyeing Higher: Wait… There’s no way we get back to the January trajectory. Good enough! SOLD!
The latter is shorters and 401k sellers, in my humble opinion.
Have you ever watched that Seinfeld episode where Costanza does the exact opposite of what his instincts tell him to do? 😉
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cKUvKE3bQlY
It’s funny–I’m seeing all these headlines “Markets Rally on President Xi Speech” and “China Seeks to Ease Trade War Fears” but not a single one gives Trump any credit for it. I’m far from a Trumpster, but even I can admit to the bias.
apparently you missed Xi’s 2017 Davos speech. Dumbass.
I guess I did. So weird that he decided to announce cuts to auto tariffs at this particular time, but I guess the timing was all a coincidence. Thanks for opening my eyes–dumbfuck.
LNG infrastructure may be getting some interest. My GLOG up 4%.
Any other ideas for build-up to WWIII plays?
access to a lake you can fish and a good fillet knife
Are you bullish on nat gas prices?
Why would you want the markets to get destroyed? That is ghoulish. People under the stairs type of shit.
The thinking here is clear. This is why – if you cant beat them, join them. According to the Cabala, which is the doctrine of Judaism:
(Kabbalah: An Introduction to Jewish Mysticism, by Byron L. Sherwin, p. 72.)
That’s the reason Jews are behind the attack on gender and the promotion of homosexuality to heterosexuals, behind the destruction of cultures, nuclear families, religion, racial identity and nations, Jews being behind the spate of false flag terror, Jews being behind destroying anything that smacks of the healthy divine order — spiritual or natural, i.e. your markets you so cherish.
Go back under the stairs you ghoul.
after this flyshit post , there’s good chance tomorrow or so we melt down
Got to hand it to the Chinese leadership. They saw us preparing to ruin ourselves in the mid-east, and immediately moved to take themselves out of our headlines. Sun Tzu 101.