America: How Did You Let This Happen?

I don’t understand the iRobot phenomenon. Which one of you assholes are buying these things? Rich people?

I’m rich and would never buy one. Let me guess, it’s one of those things that you never knew you wanted, until after you got it, right?

WRONG.

Roombas are for sloths, people unable or willing to take a mop to their floors. These are the very worst people in the country. How lazy can you be to not have the energy to vacuum a rug for 10 minutes? In a way, the iRobot customer list would be a perfect list of people to cull, in the event food was in short supply and we needed to exercise ‘active eugenics’ for the benefit of the country.

Profits and historical valuations are soaring. The latter is something you want to be mindful of — especially if you’re barreling into the stock now.

I hope you lose all of your money

Look at that price to sales ratio blowout. Bear in mind, that was before the 25% jump in the after-hours this evening, thanks to better than expected results.

Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.27 per share, $0.50 better than the Capital IQ Consensus of ($0.23); revenues rose 23.2% year/year to $183.14 mln vs the $174.65 mln Capital IQ Consensus.

Co issues upside guidance for FY17, sees EPS of $1.80-2.00 (Prior $1.45-1.70), excluding non-recurring items, vs. $1.65 two analyst estimate; sees FY17 revs of $815-825, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $789.51 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate.

Guidance including Robopolis acquisition was for revenue of $840-860 mln and EPS in the range of $1.35-1.70. Please see 16:28 comment for more details on the acquisition.

The decadence and absurd behavior by Americans never ceases to amaze me. You’re all a gluttonous set of people — very busy indeud — wolfing down expensive food and drink, just after posting a video loop of it onto your Instagram accounts of course. No meal worth eating can go unphotographed or unrecorded. After supper, the crew gathers together for a gauche selfie, documenting the occasion whence you came and spent inordinate sums of money on the liver of a young bird, neatly served over a plate of exotic grains and black truffles. In most settings, an elitist nightcap includes excessive ingestion of alcoholic beverages, a sundry of finger foods served tapas style (because anything foreign is exotic and simply better) and ample amounts of South American cocaine and/or marijuana — which are not perfectly legal in most well to do zip codes in the country.

DEATH TO AMERICA $IRBT pic.twitter.com/B6iolZt7tj

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) July 26, 2017

All the while, your fucking cat is riding atop your Roomba, making sure the kitchen floor is divested of all cramps and dust.

Fuck off.

It’s over cryptocurrencyfags. The SEC just ruled that ICOs are securities, which means regulation is right around the bend. I warned you of the recent ICO scam plaguing inexperienced investors as being completely fraudulent last week.

With the SEC cracking down, expect to see 95% of these ICOs go to zero, scammers tossed into dank prison cells, paving the way for an orderly market that May in fact threaten the existence of Wall Street’s investment banking departments.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. regulators on Tuesday declared that the offer and sale of digital assets, such as initial coin offerings, are securities – a determination that could pave the way for enforcement actions if firms fail to register the deals.

The finding by the Securities and Exchange Commission was released in an investigative report into a virtual organization known as The DAO. In the report, the SEC concluded that the tokens being sold were securities, and therefore, must be registered.

The SEC said it had decided not to bring civil charges at the end of its probe into The DAO, but instead use the case as a cautionary tale for the market.

The crypto market is worth $87b as of now, with most major currencies off 10% over the past 24hrs.

Senators from the New England territories of Maine and Rhode Island were caught talking shit on a hot mic today, talking extremely greasy about the very fat and unattractive Rep. Farenthold.

I do not mean to fat shame the good rep from Texas, but look at him, god damn it.

Fat, Unattractive, Rep. Farenthold

Let me be the first blogger to go on the record, siding with Sen. Collins when I say, ‘this sordid blend of unattractiveness and fatness shall not be tolerated amidst our government.’

“It’s my seat. I can give it to my wife if I like, or if I’m traveling alone the hot redhead in 12B in hopes of……” – Rep. Farenthold

Several years ago, his former communications director had filed a suit against him for sexual harassment.

The National Law Journal, Greene also alleges that Farenthold “regularly drank to excess” and admitted to another employee that he had “sexual fantasies” and “wet dreams” about her.

This fine chap, and former right wing radio talk show host, was once the proud owner of the domain Blow-Me.org.

Here’s the hot mic exchange between Sen. Jack Reed (D) and Sen. Collins (R).

“Do you know why he challenged you to a duel?” Reed replied. “Because you could beat the sh-t out of him first.”

“Well, fat guy. He’s huge,” Collins said. “He’s so … he’s so unattractive, it’s unbelievable. Did you see the picture of him in his pajamas next to this bunny, this Playboy bunny?”

Senator Jack Reed (D)

Senator Collins (R)

Rep. ‘So Unattractive’ and ‘Fat’ Blake Farenthold (R)

Any questions?

Listen.

Dirty version

Clean (transcribed, enhanced audio)

Sen. Chuck Schumer (D) addressed the Senate floor today, discussing Trump’s Twitter attacks on AG Sessions (I can’t believe I just wrote that), admonishing his character for publicly outing his first establishment ally in the Senate.

“We should all take a moment to think about how shocking these comments are on a human basis,” Schumer said on the Senate floor about some of Trump’s recent statements. “This was the first person who stumped for Donald Trump, who was with him through thick and thin. And now, even if the president has disagreements with him, which I think are ill-founded, self-centered and wrong, you don’t ridicule him in public, someone who is your close friend. That speaks to character.”

It’s clear that President Trump is trying to bully his attorney general out of office. How can anyone draw a different conclusion?” Schumer said, wondering why Trump aired his grievances in public and not in person. “He wants him out.”

Schumer posited the idea that Trump was jockeying to get rid of Sessions before the August recess, at which point he’d appoint a new AG, who would then fire Robert Mueller. Makes sense.

“Before this scheme gains wings, Democrats will never go along with the recess appointment if that situation arises. We have some tools in our toolbox to stymie such action. We’re ready to use every single one of them, anytime day or night,” he said.

“I cannot imagine my friends on the Republican side, particularly in the Republican leadership … would be complicit in creating a constitutional crisis. They must work with us and not open the door to a constitutional crisis during the August recess.”

Creatures from Twitter weigh in.

I asked two ppl close to Trump why he is tormenting Sessions instead of firing him. The answer from both, paraphrased: Because he can.

— Maggie Haberman (@maggieNYT) July 25, 2017

Fully transparent: @POTUS wants to force Sessions to resign so he can appoint someone to curb Mueller probe. Only works if Senate lets it. https://t.co/ONezAAlfeX

— Adam Schiff (@RepAdamSchiff) July 25, 2017

#BREAKING Decision 'soon' on fate of US attorney general Sessions: White House

— AFP news agency (@AFP) July 25, 2017

What do you think? Does Trump have the gumption to pull it off?

Isn’t it amazing how the market goes up every day, in spite of the political turmoil?

There are two main pillars to today’s rally: banks and commodities. Both of these sectors are, in a sense, Trumpion plays. But I don’t think they’re rising because of him. Banks are rising thanks to rising yields and widening spreads. The 10yr is up nearly 7bps to 2.32%, while the 2 yr is up just 3bps to 1.394%. That’s a widening of 4bps in the yield curve in one session — pure profits for bankfags.

Take a look at the winship.

SIVB +3.6%, C +3.1%, BAC +2.7%, SCHW +2.3%

The kinetic action is in the commodity sector today. This rally is being sponsored by China, courtesy of FCX and CAT earnings beats. The sectors are up nearly 4%, and both copper and WTI are up more than 3% for the session. However, I’d advise you to tread carefully with this trade. Last year in July, FCX gained 17%, only to cede those gains and more, enduring a -20% drubbing in August.

Nevertheless, traders are swimming naked with each other today, enjoying the scenery, sopping up oversold commodity stocks. As is the case with all sharp rallies, short squeezes happen. Right now, here are the standouts amongst stocks most heavily shorted in the commodity sector.

CENX, MTDR, RIG, AKS, CRC, CLF and ATI.

That is the usual shit, isn’t it? As soon as commodities break out, all of the resource misfits pile into RIG, CENX, ATI, CLF and X — only to get thoroughly dispatched later on in the week.

Retail is bouncing nicely too, but I rather not even mention that industry.

Tech is taking the day off, a well deserved one at that. Maybe it’s due to GOOGL earnings or maybe the sector is enduring a little profit taking. Either way, there’s not much going on there, aside from losses in MU, GOOGL, SHOP, VEEV and SANM.

The President was tweeting late last night and early this morning. One of the more notable outbursts was against his AG, Jeff Sessions. He’s probably doing this to force Sessions to resign, a plan that should work out in the end. Some supporters of Trump might view this as a positive, since Sessions has proven the only thing he’s interested in doing is going after marijuana dealers since taking office at the DOJ. Still, it’s never a positive to see the head of the DOJ maligned by the President.

Attorney General Jeff Sessions has taken a VERY weak position on Hillary Clinton crimes (where are E-mails & DNC server) & Intel leakers!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 25, 2017

The President also went after the acting head of the FBI. I know that might sound bad, but these department heads are flawed people and many deserve to be aired out.

Problem is that the acting head of the FBI & the person in charge of the Hillary investigation, Andrew McCabe, got $700,000 from H for wife!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 25, 2017

Also notable is the President’s number one enemy seems to be WaPo now, with CNN dropping to a close second. In a series of tweets, Trump takes on the Washington Compost, owned by Amazon’s Jeff Bezos.

The Amazon Washington Post fabricated the facts on my ending massive, dangerous, and wasteful payments to Syrian rebels fighting Assad…..

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 25, 2017

So many stories about me in the @washingtonpost are Fake News. They are as bad as ratings challenged @CNN. Lobbyist for Amazon and taxes?

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 25, 2017

The market is ignoring the Amazon tax references, because Trump is like the boy who cried wolf at this stage. No one believes him.

Is Fake News Washington Post being used as a lobbyist weapon against Congress to keep Politicians from looking into Amazon no-tax monopoly?

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 25, 2017

In an Oped published last night, the Washington Post Editorial board declared the President persona non grata, as it pertains to protecting the American people from the very menacing threat in Moscow.

Congress’s action is nevertheless essential. It has become all too evident that Mr. Trump cannot be trusted to protect vital U.S. interests against persistent Russian aggression. He has shown no interest in stopping Russian cyberattacks, including further assaults on the U.S. electoral system. He appears ready to hand Mr. Putin major concessions for nothing, from the return of the compounds to withdrawal of U.S. support for rebel forces in Syria. Why Mr. Trump pursues these actions remains a mystery. But Congress is right to limit the damage.

Copper is higher by more than 3%, and oil +2%. Earlier this morning, both FCX and CAT crushed numbers, citing China as a strong engine of growth. For bulls, this is exactly what you wanted to hear. Hence, we’re enjoying a commodity led rally today — because China, err, likes and needs commodities.

Here are the top performing sectors, early going, which are also Trump plays.

Notes from the FCX quarter.

Not committing to projects now…
China copper demand has been better than expected.
Seeing higher than normal copper supply disruptions.
Saw a high level of worker absenteeism which had an impact on mining operations.
Indonesia Talks- Moving to the next stage with a mutual optimism. Says both sides closer to objectives with Indonesia; Seeing more Senior level action in Jakarta that it has seen in the past; At point of moving discussions to direct talks with government officials; talking about extending operating rights and getting assurances that would give them the confidence to invest in big under ground projects; Talks about any divestitures have to be at fair market value.

And, notes from the CAT quarter.

Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $1.49 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.23 better than the Capital IQ Consensus of $1.26; revenues rose 9.6% year/year to $11.33 bln vs the $10.96 bln Capital IQ Consensus.

As a result of increased demand across many end markets and disciplined cost control, Caterpillar is raising its 2017 outlook. Some risks remain in the outlook, including weakness in the Middle East and Latin America, as well as geopolitical and commodity risk

Co issues upside guidance for FY17, sees EPS of $5.00 vs. $4.32 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate

Meanwhile, the co raised its FY17 sales guidance to $42-44 bln vs. $40.74 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate, up from $38-41 bln, which was given in April 2017

Back to the quarter…

The 10% in increase in YoY sales was primarily due to higher sales volume, with the largest increase in Construction Industries mostly due to higher end-user demand for construction equipment
Sales volume for Resource Industries increased due to improved end-user demand for aftermarket parts and the favorable impact of changes in dealer inventories. Energy & Transportation’s sales were higher mostly due to increased demand for aftermarket parts for reciprocating engines. Favorable price realization in Construction Industries also contributed to the sales improvement. The unfavorable impact of currency was mostly the result of a weaker euro and British pound. Financial Products’ segment revenues were about flat

Sales increased in Asia/Pacific, North America and Latin America, and were about flat in EAME

Caterpillar’s financial position continued to strengthen. Machinery, Energy & Transportation operating cash flow was $2.0 billion during the quarter, and ME&T’s debt-to-capital ratio improved to 38.6 percent, compared with 41.7% at the end of the first quarter of 2017

FCX is up 13% for the day. Interestingly, it was up 17% in July of last year too, only to shed 20% in August.

In a brazen attempt at honesty, Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D) of Hawaii went on Tucker Carlson tonight and declared the US was addicted to regime change and that we armed and funded Al Qaeda in Syria.

In late 2016, Gabbard introduced the ‘Stop Funding Terrorist Act‘ to Congress — but hardly anyone on the left or on the neocon right listened. Over the course of the past two years, we’ve seen Russia on the right side of history, aiding the only legitimate government in Syria — which has provided the media with endless demonization campaigns depicting both Assad and Putin as monsters, who both gassed innocents and bombed out hospitals, whilst ignoring the horrors and the blind hatred of the people attempting to overthrow Assad.

The stated goal of Putin’s meddling in Syria was to protect Russian’s sole Mediterranean port and aid an ally of Russia who has been loyal to the Kremlin for decades. US policy has been soft on ISIS and hard on Assad, seeking to support so called ‘moderate rebels’ to overthrow him. The most important fallacy about these ‘moderate rebels’ is that they are, in fact, an Al Qaeda spinoff, working in conjunction with ISIS to install the Caliphate in Syria. In other words, we’re now supporting the same people who allegedly attacked us on 9/11.

When Trump ended the brainless CIA project to arm and fund terrorists in Syria, the media painted it as ceding to the demands of Putin. However, what our lawmakers have failed to do is sell America on the idea of extended war in Syria, which would undoubtedly cost inordinate amounts of money and lives. Instead, they simply point towards isolated events to monsterize Assad and draw on the feeble emotional strings of the American normie.

If US policy is to not negotiate with terrorists, then why the heck are we arming them? Let the regional players sort Syria out and leave us the hell out of it.

One of the only sane democrats, Tulsi Gabbard, weighs in.

The hard hitting Wolf Blitzer went for the kill in this clip with former DNI Clapper and CIA Director Brennan, asking the latter to describe what should be done if Trump were to fire Mueller. His answer for fairly straightforward, describing America as a nation in crisis.

“I think it’s the obligation of some executive branch officials to refuse to carry that out. I would just hope that this is not going to be a partisan issue. That Republicans, Democrats are going to see that the future of this government is at stake and something needs to be done for the good of the future.”

The very trustworthy and overflowing human vessel of integrity, John Brennan, is calling for an executive branch coup. Just refuse to listen to the President, arrest him and his family, and be done with him. After one year of investigations, I think it’s clear to everyone in the country that Trump is a Russian agent, totally dependent upon Russian money to further his hotel empire. Without the Ruble and Russian financing, Trump and Kushner would be reduced to rubble.

You must be wondering with less than 50% of stocks higher for the day, where the heck were the gains? The Nasdaq rose more than 23, with both the Dow and the S&P lower. Do not fret, for Le Fly will show you exactly where the money went, which, incidentally, is the same place its been for several years now.

While everyone else suffered, the greedy FAANG lifted by almost 1%. All that matters in this market are a few handful of stocks — just like real life where only a few elite people are important. The rest of the market could burn in hell, as far as the Nasdaq is concerned.

Banks bounced, but no one cares.

And, lastly, That Fag Pub continues to show why it’s the favorite locale on Wall Street these days.

Personally, Friday’s purchases netted just 0.15% today — which is wildly better than the SPY. That is the stated goal, so I’ll take the win. I do not care to compete versus the indecorous FAANG or Nasdaq index, due to a depressed sharpe and heightened risk profile. Any man of property and leisure will tell you, first and foremost, that any investment strategy worth its salt must be both productive and risk averse. While Le Fly, aka Señor Tropicana, had been known in the past for river boat gambling, and acting a fool amidst the Third Estate in the marketplace, I am a reformed man and do not care to partake in tomfoolery anymore.

Signing off for now.