GunFags Get in Here: Party Time is Over

Trick or treating is done and I decked out the house with all sort of ghoulish trinkets mainly for my own self-aggrandizement. On the issue of politics and policy, I think it’s important to look at cause and effect when trying to assess stocks.

For example, Obama was the single best President for gun stocks ever. Why? Because of the false assumption that he was going to ‘take away your guns.’ This promoted 2nd amendment fags in the worst of ways, boosting sales to idiotic levels. Has it ever dawned on you that these knee jerk reactions are being caused by design?

For example, is it surprising to see alt-right loonies commingle with white nationalists, given the neo-liberal media and the non-stop badgering of ‘white males?’ Perhaps ‘they’ are trying to stoke the ‘white males’ in this country to do something, like elect Trump and truly take away your guns when you least expect it. Or, given the grotesque media bias against Trump, maybe he’ll push for the ‘fairness doctrine’ to be reimplemented. I’ve heard plenty of shills discuss this and it would be disastrous for free speech and true information.

After the close of trade today, shares of RGR plunged — because they missed earnings — because Obama is no longer menacing over you trying to take away your fucking guns.

Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.53 per share, $0.07 worse than the two analyst estimate of $0.60; revenues fell 35.1% year/year to $104.8 mln vs the $126.2 mln two analyst estimate.

The Company also announced today that its Board of Directors declared a dividend of 21¢ per share for the third quarter for stockholders of record as of November 15, 2017, payable on November 30, 2017. This dividend varies every quarter because the Company pays a percentage of earnings rather than a fixed amount per share. This dividend is approximately 40% of net income.

And here’s how RGR faired during the Gun Devil’s administration.

Markets are in swag mode; the bitcoin nerds are tossing each other’s salads again, and I stand before you a proud man. I peer down upon my portfolio, my young adventurous portfolio of talent, and am truly heartened by its zeal.

Case in point: I’ve been donkey punched in HMNY for the past month or so, forcing me to reinvest at lower levels to reduce my basis. But look at it today — growing up quickly and scaring all of the shorts out of the shares. Truly magnificent.

Also, my HIIQ, an ironic ticker symbol considering my 155 IQ, is, yet again, trending higher. Upon the death of Obamacare, HIIQ will rock higher and kick down all of the gravestones of Barry’s healthcare debacle. It is the only healthcare stock that stands to benefit from the complete annihilation of Obamacare.

Other stocks in the portfolio making me proud include FIZZ, YELP, EDIT and COHR.

My latest addition, UCTT, is a stupendous company and I am grateful to own the shares off its 52 week highs.

As an aside, Netflix has suspended filming season 6 of House of Cards — because its main star is a fucking pedophile. Damned Hollywood.

Analysts don’t like it, I do. With the amount of money they’re making from ripping off hipsters thru the sale of seltzer water, shareholders should expect a handsome return soon.

The technical formation being formed here is the “Slingshot, Cock-n-Ball” pattern. This is one of the best technical indicators out there and I’ve run this by several ‘top tier’ technicians and they all agreed: ‘the slingshot is gonna catapult the cock and the balls supremely higher.’

Observe.

The math on this one is pretty simple. Because Apple X demand is through the roof, according to all relevant reports, OLED plays are rallying. They’re rallying because there is a big shortage of OLED worldwide and anyone who helps in the production of OLED are likely to enjoy massive earnings beats.

A deluge of orders for Apple’s luxury phone has pushed shipment times into December, according to analyst reports from Drexel Hamilton and Nomura.

Apple told CNBC on Friday that “We can see from the initial response, customer demand is off the charts.”

Apple has directed its Taiwanese suppliers to double capacity in anticipation, according to a FactSet translation of a report in China’s Economic Daily News.

Inside Exodus, both RC and I had been positioned for this, me with COHR and him with OLED. He took profits today; I am still holding COHR.

Additionally, I bought UCTT — which, luckily, is down ~20% in recent weeks due to an earnings miss. They are key manufacturers for OLED and have been enjoying splendor for the past year and a half. I suspect, due to Apple X success, that splendor is about to turn into grandeur.

All that aside, chip stocks are sharply higher too, led by MU, thanks to a SNE upping their Capex.

My favorite holiday of the year is here; but do not fret I’ve been doing this long enough and am old enough to not toss corny Hallow’s Eve jokes your way. I will not remind you about how spooky it is outside now, still dark, even though it’s 7am. And I certainly will not try to tie in the spooky aesthetic with stocks, somehow suggesting we’re all trapped in a god damned haunted house and mad man Yellen is on the loose — trying to take away our interest payments on our CDs.

Nasdaq futures are up 11 and everything else is rather un-notable. Europe is blah. Asia was blah. And I just had a tall glass of Almond chocolate milk. It tastes just like Yohoo.

Here are some important headlines.

Under Armour beats by $0.03, misses on revs; Lowers 2017 outlook
Mosaic beats by $0.22, beats on revs
ABB Ltd added to Conviction Buy List at Goldman
Pfizer beats by $0.02, reports revs in-line; raises FY17 guidance slightly
CONSOL Energy misses by $0.15, beats on revs
Shutterstock beats by $0.04, beats on revs; reaffirms FY17 revs guidance
Shopify beats by $0.07, beats on revs; guides Q4 revs above consensus (raises FY17 guide)

There aren’t any happenings so far, after yesterday’s extreme happenings. I’ve been busy — damn it — so quit giving me a hard time.

I’m analyzing Apparel Stores in this post to give you an idea of what’s taking place outside Amazon. Retailfags try to justify the horrid state of retail by merely pointing to great success at Amazon. WRONG. You cannot simply ignore a major shift in human behavior that was built on economies of scale reliant upon shopping malls and the real estate they occupy.

Total revenues: $107 billion
Total FCF: $6.4 billion
Median YTD return: -20%
Median QT earnings growth: -36%
Median QT revenue growth: -1.35%

PE: 15.6x
PS: 0.39x (lowest since 2006)

Formula for success: earnings growth, as demonstrated by GES and GPS this year. People have resigned themselves to the idea that revenues will drop. Like in the case with McDonald’s, investors want to see massive downsizing and profits increase. Whoever is able to shrink their footprint fastest will win.

It’s Mueller Monday and here’s my take on the indictment.

This guy was, allegedly, a MAJOR LEAGUE money launderer for Ukraine aka Russian interests — washing $18 million. How stupid was the Trump campaign for letting this guy run the show? I mean, any private eye worth his salt could’ve dredged up enough doubts to keep this guy off the team, let alone have him run it. I know there is a stringent vetting process and I cannot reconcile how they would knowingly bring in a guy like this, unless of course they wanted to.

Even if you think Trump is a crook and was doing Russia’s bidding, hiring Manafort would make even less sense under those circumstances, as it would draw attention to them.

I am supremely confident that these charges will stick and both Manafort and Gates will serve a minimum of 5 years in prison, if not a lot more. The government is rarely wrong when it comes to AML charges and this is fairly straightforward — very trackable and easy to prosecute.

Now the next question is, will Manafort and Gates talk, giving up someone close to Trump or perhaps Trump himself?

What’s interesting to note is Rick Gates, who was Manafort’s junior shill, also worked for Tom Barack — Trump’s very close billionaire buddy. I read somewhere that Gates had visited the WH as recently as June.

All of this makes for extreme happenings and we should all expect everything to quicken hereinafter. I can’t wait to see all of the shit Trump tweets as the Mueller lasso gets closer to his big Orange Gorilla neck.

Not a fan of crypto-mining and all of its indecorous trimmings. But how does this god damned downgrade of AMD by Morgan Stanley make sense? This is a simple if-then scenario, right? If the price of cryptos are at record highs and trending higher, then more people will want to mine for these valuable items. Yes?

Ok, so where is the logic with this downgrade of AMD, who is a major player in providing miners with GPU power to get the damned tokens?

Morgan Stanley reduced its rating for AMD shares to underweight from equal-weight, predicting cryptocurrency mining and gaming console demand for its graphics chip business will falter in 2018.

The company’s shares are down 4 percent in Monday’s premarket session after the report. The stock declined 13.5 percent Wednesday, a day after it gave fourth-quarter profitability guidance below some Wall Street estimates.

AMD’s “fundamental outlook is not quite as robust as microprocessor momentum has been slow to build, offset by cryptocurrency gains,” analyst Joseph Moore wrote in a note to clients Monday. “We believe that AMD’s graphics surge has been caused by a sharp increase in sales of graphics chips to cryptocurrency miners. We expect this to meaningfully decelerate next year.”

Moore lowered his price target for AMD shares to $8 from $11, representing 32 percent downside from Friday’s close.

The analyst predicts cryptocurrency mining driven sales for AMD’s graphics chips will decline by 50 percent next year or a $250 million decline in revenue. He also forecasts video game console demand will decline by 5.5 percent in 2018.

“We expect cryptocurrency to gradually fade from here, consoles to decline, and graphics to be flattish,” he wrote. “To be clear, we admire what the company has accomplished on a fraction of its competitors’ budgets in both microprocessors and graphics – our cautious view is based entirely on the current stock price, and the limited potential for upside in 2018 and beyond.”

He’s predicting a 50% drop in mining related sales, or $250 million. I bet you shitheads thought AMD and NVDA were soaring because MUH video games. Wrong. The entire rally in both AMD/NVDA is predicated on crypto mining. When that party ends, so will the rallies in those stocks.

Morning Gents,

Kevin Spacey admitted to being a depraved pedophile last night, something I am sure fellow members of the NFLX hit show House of Cards rue. Already, Mrs. Fly said she refuses to watch ‘anymore of his depravity’ which says a lot. The normies are going to pick up pitched forks along the way to BURNING Hollywood to the ground and to a cinder.

Naturally, the media is downplaying the pedo part and instead focusing on Spacey’s super-gay coming out party.

And then there’s this.

Uh oh – Kevin Spacey and Bill Clinton flew on Jeff Epstein's Lolita Express together. https://t.co/gEVWaWSGTB pic.twitter.com/AVgjS4zeE8

— ZeroPointNow (@ZeroPointNow) October 30, 2017

All of that is having zero effect on stocks, with Europe slightly higher and Nasdaq futures flat. Shares of NFLX are higher in the pre-market.

Shares of M were downgraded at Citi this morning. That’s not gonna stop a god damned single person from buying those shares of the presumptive Xmas season. The only other notable call this morning was Morgan Stanley downgrading AMD.

It’s very cold and dreary this morning, which means I’ll be driving my kids to school. On the way back, after they’re out of the car, I’ll turn on Howard Stern and see what that absolute degenerate is up to — which is usually nothing at all but cock-smacking contests or any other variety of homo-erotic horseshit. He does, however, do the best interviews and I always enjoy those.

I expect stocks will trade down today, possibly producing a great entry point for dip buyers. But I don’t have an appetite for more stocks ahead of Hallow’s Eve. Too scary.

I spent the balance of my day shopping, more or less — first for clothes and then for groceries. I find that I am no longer interested in buying clothes for myself and just do it for others now. Food, that’s another story. I enjoy buying delicacies and am open to all sorts of fare. This evening I made some steamed clams in a seafood stock, emblazoned by white wine and heavy doses of truffle salt. It was delicious. Since this is the season of pumpkin, I paired it with a fine pumpkin ale and it was great.

I gave my dog, Twinkie, my last clam. She ate it right out of the shell and began chewing on the empty shell with grave intensity. I marveled at her ignorance and then quickly took the clam away from her, fearing it would choke her to death.

On the stove now, sizzling loudly and splashing corn oil onto my stove, backsplash, and floor is some floured wild cod. I don’t buy farmed raised fish anymore because I once saw a documentary that said it was the equivalent to eating out of a toilet bowl.

I’m sipping on my third glass of pumpkin ale now and my wife texted our good friend Dave, who is a former NYPD detective, that we were doing so. Dave is a brave man, 10 years my senior, who likes to laugh at my forays into flavored ale. He likes the simple things in life: fine cigars, Irish whiskey, and plain ale.

I haven’t broken my vegan diet yet, despite complaining about it every hour. Truth is, when I start something, I like to finish it and I feel bad breaking my ridiculous vegan diet. After I wrote that I just realized I had been eating fish all day — so I’m really a pescatarian. At a minimum, this experience will enable me to communicate well with other vegans, making fine conversation.

My wife just informed me that the wild cod was a disaster. She’s been drinking pumpkin ale with me and I think that had something to do with it. I didn’t take the kids to the local haunted farm this year — because they’re getting older and they said it was for babies. I really hate the fact that they’re getting older and can’t wait until they grow old enough to produce grandchildren for me. There’s nothing better than life and pumpkin ale, during Halloween, at a haunted farm, with small children.

Dow futures are down by 20, but does it really matter?