GET IN HERE RUBES FOR A LITTLE CULTURE

I’ll be heading out for a nice long day of shopping. After that, why, I might whip up a few dry martinis and then finish off that new show Ozark’s. I’m glad I stumbled across that show, to remind me to never travel to that part of the country.

On the music front, I’m just about an expert on early jazz and 1920-1930s ‘dancing orchestra’ (Al Bowlly, Ted Lewis, Ray Noble, Leo Reisman etc) music and have been exploring the wondrous world of Bossa Nova — a Brazilian form of music that intermingled with jazz and blew up in America — circa 1960s. Even Frank ‘never waited on a line during his entire life’ Sinatra got into it — making an entire album with Antonio Carlos Jobim.

Still, out of all the songs and artists from that era, saxophone playing Stan Getz is my favorite.

In 1963, he released Jazz Samba and it reached #1 on the charts, selling 500,000 records in a year and a half. I love exploring things that were popular in the past and trying to understand what was special about them. If you listen to the entirety of this album, Jazz Samba, it’s easy to understand why. It’s timeless and will be appreciated forever.

I’ve known about Getz for maybe 5 years now and have played his stuff here before. For those of you who weren’t paying attention, here’s the album.

On the literary front, I recently completed all of the works of F. Scott Fitzgerald, who is probably my favorite author. I read all of his novels and short stories and have a great appreciation for this prose. Fun fact, when he died, The Great Gatsby had to be warehoused due to lack of demand. Now he sells more books per year then he did during his entire career as an author. Isn’t that fucked?

On my night table now is Anna Karenina, a half read masterpiece about NYC named “Gotham”, an Einstein biography and a book about English, Irish and Scottish castles.

I once fell into this misconception, thinking that if something was overbought it must be a sell. After delving into mean reversion data for more than a decade, I can tell you, unequivocally, this is not the case. In fact, sometimes when a stock is overbought it is an even better buy than when oversold, and vice versa. Everything is data dependent. Each stock has a life of its own, a unique shareholder base with their own lives.

Two weeks ago, the SPY flagged overbought in Exodus. I posted this blog inside there to let members know this was a good thing.

Today I bought FEYE, which is also overbought, according to our algorithms. The term overbought simply denotes a technical level that is stretched to its outer-limits. I like to view this as I would a streaking baseball hitter, batting .550 over the past 10 games. Would you view that hitter as an easy out or someone likely to take your head off with a line drive up the middle?

Here are the stats for FEYE and why I bought it.

A 90% win rate over the past 10 incidences, not too shabby.

Here are some of the other stocks that are streaking now in Exodus, flagging OB, that have resulted in higher stock prices over the past 12 months.

This is what I do in my spare time, figuring out ways to unlock the ancient secrets of speculation. What the fuck are you doing with your lives, playing video games?

Top picks heading into the weekend, FIZZ, FAZ, XIV, FEYE.

How many of you bought NVDA 100 points ago and still own it? I bet all of you did, yes? I suppose we’re living through a tech renaissance where computing power, abiding by Moore’s Law, keeps doubling and with it the share prices of the underlying companies. But something changed a few years ago, didn’t it?

When Steve Jobs was at the helm, he’d pit these chip companies against one another — like rabid pitbulls in a cage — causing their margins to shrink and share prices to collapse. Ever since Apple passed $200 billion in cash, they started to become more gracious with their suppliers, permitting them to ‘get a piece of the pie’ and jog on with dignity. Personally, I don’t think Apple should show them any quarter, whatsoever, but instead offer them the black flag during negotiations.

“You either take this deal or your stock will get cut in half. Any questions?”

With a very rich Tim Cook and Apple, the tech world is all basking in each other’s glory.

Courtesy of Exodus, here are the other high tech growth stories outperforming this year. It’s quite a list.

Even contract manufacturers are seeing their margins explode. A personal favorite is UCTT, a direct play in the fast growing OLED market. No one knows for sure how long this detente will last, until the knives come out and pricing becomes an issue. With the $1,000 iPhone set to launch, I’m guessing there’s MOAR upside.

I sold GOOS after looking at some video at how they lay traps throughout Canada to catch Coyotes and starve them to death and then skin them for their fur, so rich faggots can sport them at their local ski resorts. It was funny for a minute. Then I looked at my dog and felt like laser beaming their HQ into the core of the earth. We can now root for their utter and total annihilation in harmony.

Speaking of which, I bought FEYE today, a stock that drove me fucking nuts back in early 2014. I think I rode that fucker down 40-50% in a few short weeks, piling good money into it after bad — applying a Martingale strategy that nearly led to my ruin. I have not been the same person, on this planet, since that occasion. Therefore, ergo, I felt it was incumbent upon myself to enact a stinging revenge upon this ticker symbol, which no doubt is the name of one of Satan’s children.

As an aside, the Exodus Quant strategy made moves today, reducing GLD and TLT to 5% each, allocating into the $1-5 billion market cap quintile.

All is good. Now let’s get one with this fucking revenge trade. I will be watching each and every tick.

Get your generators ready NY, Jose might be heading up here to blow away your over valued hovels. Recent models indicate Jose is making a comeback near the Bahamas and is expected to regain ‘Cane status today, then jog on towards the northeast in an attempt to destroy it.

From Dr. Masters

Jose is now completing its expected loop between the Caribbean and Bermuda, and the track forecast has become more straightforward. Our top track models—the European, GFS, and UKMET models—agree that Jose will continue west-northwest until about Saturday, then head northward toward a upper-level trough that will be sweeping through eastern Canada. By midweek, this northward movement is expected to segue into a more northeasterly track.

The main forecast challenge is how close Jose will get to the U.S. and Canadian coast. The 00Z Thursday runs of the three top track models all place Jose within several hundred miles of North Carolina’s Outer Banks by next Tuesday. Later in the week, Jose could make an even closer pass by Cape Cod and the Canadian Maritimes. At this point we can’t rule out the possibility that Jose will make landfall somewhere along the east coast of the U.S. or Canada. Of the 50 members of the 00Z Thursday ensemble run of the European model, a substantial minority bring Jose inland across the eastern U.S. (see Figure 3). However, only about 20% of the GFS ensemble members produce an eastern U.S. landfall (see Figure 2). The model guidance trended slightly westward overnight, so we’ll need to keep a close eye on any further trends in model guidance. NHC’s 5-day forecast on Thursday morning placed Jose about 250 miles east of North Carolina on Monday, and the “cone of uncertainty” included the Outer Banks.

I guarantee you this doesn’t make the news rounds today, so as a stock trader you might be able to get in on some hurricane stocks ahead of the crowd. The obvious ones are PGTI, LL, LOW and GNRC.

Wait, there’s more.

Two new systems just formed off the coast of Africa and are expected to become Tropical Depressions soon.

Separately, Hurricane Irma, aka Nothing Burger, has left the entire island of Barbuda without people for the first time in 300 years. Total and complete devastation. All 1,800 people have been evacuated.

“The damage is complete,” says Ambassador Ronald Sanders, who has served as Antigua and Barbuda’s ambassador to the U.S. since 2015. “For the first time in 300 years, there’s not a single living person on the island of Barbuda — a civilization that has existed on that island for over 300 years has now been extinguished.”

According to Sanders, Irma was “the most ferocious, cruel and merciless storm” in the island’s history. The hurricane was 378 miles wide when it descended on Barbuda, which is just 62 square miles.

“This was a huge monster,” he says. “The island and the people on the island had absolutely no chance.”

Evacuees from Barbuda were sent to Antigua, which did not suffer the same level of damage from Irma.

“We’ve had most of the people we’ve brought over to Antigua in shelters,” says Sanders. “We’ve tried to make living accommodations as good as humanly possible in these circumstances. Fortunately, we had planned ahead for this hurricane, and we had ordered supplies in from Miami and the United States before the hurricane hit.”

How ever will they recover?

They won’t.

The crypto slide continues, almost unabated. Over the past 24hrs, BTC is -19%, ETH -22% and #BTC cash -28%. The overall value of the ICO market, including BTC, is now down to $100 billion. To put this into perspective, I was discussing how horrible a bubble this was when the cap was $85 billion.

Over the past hour, Litecoin has dropped by 8% and Ethereum by 3.5%.

The peak for Ethereum, the thing that this whole ICO scam is predicated upon, was on 9/1/17 at $398. ETH is now trading at $199.

I hope all cryptocurrency holders a very good evening. pic.twitter.com/OKV2OUXQYI

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) September 15, 2017

Good morning cryptocurrency holders! pic.twitter.com/xJztUlG5KB

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) September 15, 2017

There was an IED attack on a London train this morning. This is the last thing I want to talk about this morning, so you can catch the live updates here.

Subsequently, there was also a knife attack in Paris. This is having a profound bullish effect on the British pound, which is higher by 1.43% v the dollar.

European stocks are flat, but the British FTSE is -1.25%, offset by the gains in her currency.

Apparently, the Bank of England is getting hawkish.

“The standout undervalued currency in G-10 is sterling,” Citigroup Inc. Strategists led by Jeremy Hale said in a report. “The possibility of a hike in the near term is now non-negligible and this, combined with the fact that the pound’s real effective exchange rate is close to its all-time low, could support the currency from here.”

On the other hand, as Unicredit’s Gkionakis said, “If they don’t do it (hike rates) this time, their credibility will be lost completely for the next few years.” Markets expect the BoE to move in November, he added.

A great big nothing burger, atop a flaming vegan grill.

Nasdaq futs are -16.

The result of populist socialism in Venezuela has produced widespread inflation (700%) and panic stricken hunger.

To combat shortages in food, the Venezuelan government unveiled a new plan to eat all the rabbits.

Under the program dubbed ‘Plan Rabbit’, Venezeula’s agriculture minister, Freddy Bernal, reminded people “The rabbit isn’t a pet, it’s only two and a half kilos of meat.”

“The first part of Plan Rabbit moves forward,” said Bernal.

“Plan Rabbit” illustrates the government’s extreme measures to alleviate food shortages in Venezuela. Rabbit is not a commonly eaten item in the South American nation, where Bernal conceded that it’s mostly viewed as a cute pet.

The agriculture minister argued that rabbits easily reproduce and are a source of protein. He also recommended citizens consider raising and growing other animals and vegetables at home.

It’s just the latest attempt to try and solve the food shortage problem. The government forces citizens to pick up groceries on certain days of the week depending on social security numbers. It still sells staple items, such as corn flour, at extremely low prices.

It has also hiked the minimum wage three times this year, though inflation is expected to outrun any wage increases. The IMF forecasts that prices will rise 720% in Venezuela this year.

A national poll published earlier this year found that Venezuelans lost 19 pounds on average in 2016 due to food shortages. Venezuelans line up for hours outside supermarkets, waiting to buy the most basic items.

Venezuela must ship in almost all the food it needs after the government severely mismanaged farmland that it nationalized. The very low, fixed prices on everything from corn flour to coffee have put many farmers out of work.

Compared with 2015, food imports from Venezuela’s top trade partners were down 61% in the first five months of this year, according to Panjiva, a trade research firm.

“We’re looking for creative solutions in the socialist vision,” Maduro said.

Socialism.

Once upon a time, Hugh Hendry was my favorite celebrity hedge fund manager. It wasn’t his prowess in the markets that attracted me to his verbose manner in communicating simple analysis — but his extreme underlying rage that lurked under a nervous smile.

An interesting side note with Hugh, he crushed the market during the crisis and it resulted in massive redemptions — because his investors were scared of the beta. This is a very important lesson to be taught for you young gunslingers out there. Big investors never want to see a fund +30% in a month. They’ll take the money, run, and count their blessings for having the occasion.

At one point in iBC history, whenever I bought TLT, I referred to it as ‘Doing the Hugh‘ — because Hugh had an affinity for deflation and always thought we’d end up inside of its vortex.

In his letter to investors today, Hugh, melancholically, said “It wasn’t supposed to be like this” — describing a market environment that had been untradeable for him. Every market is tradeable; Hugh was just using the wrong methods. Nonetheless, as a man who quit professional money management nearly 2 years ago, I understand what Hugh is feeling now and it kind of sucks. On one hand, I had this wonderful distraction of running a first class blog, always busy inside Exodus, and fomenting massive strife across the globe — but on the other a void, subtle, but a void nonetheless.

What does Hugh have, a few pencils and a book?

I used to watch CNBC Europe religiously back in the day and saw this one live. It was really tense and I thought Hugh and the other bloke were going to start punching each other on live teevee. Incidentally, as I understand it from a former anchor at CNBC Europe, Hugh had been banned from the show after years of causing chaos and pulling stunts like this — which is why he hadn’t been on in years.

Hugh vs Stiglitz

Lastly, a year or so ago, Hugh said he gave up on shorting stocks and went long — saying he ‘felt like the sun only rose to humiliate him.’

Investing it a tough racket and yesterday’s victories, sometimes, cannot be repeated. Cheers to you Hugh and best to luck in your future endeavors.

-Fly

Let’s review the extent of the carnage inside of the dark, cavernous catacombs of the ICO world — a place where outright scam artists get rich by tricking people into believing their ‘coin’ will make them rich. This has never been about preserving value, supplanting fiat, but promoting a bubble that is backed by venture capitalists.

Let me repeat that for you thick brained fuck-sticks who think that by purchasing ETH or BTC you’re ‘sticking it to the man.’

Remember Uncle Fred Wilson, the man behind Twitter, Etsy, Zinga, and a slew of failed IPOs? Fred’s been involved in Coinbase and the blockchain since 2011. After Fred got in, his whole cadre of followers and sycophants followed suit. As of today, the industry is teeming with vultures looking to continue this Ponzi scheme — thrusted ahead by lunatics like John McAfee.

Here are some of the losers over the past 24hrs

Sprouts -87%, $1.6m mkt cap
MergeCoin -59%, $768k mkt cap
MegaCoin -56%, $785k mkt cap
Asch, -52%, $10.6m mkt cap
Hshare -40%, $227m mkt cap
DogeCoin -33%, $102m mkt cap
SysCoin -33%, $80m mkt cap
SiaCoin -31%, $114m mkt cap
NAVCoin -30%, $42m mkt cap

And for the big ones
Bitcoin -16%, $54b mkt cap
Ethereum -16.5%, $21.7b mkt cap
Ripple -13%, $6.7b mkt cap
BitCoin Cash -20% $6.7b mkt cap
Litecoin -25%, $2.5b mkt cap

You get the gist. We’re talking -30% to -60% moves over the past 7 days.

I hate to see anyone lose money — but these people truly deserve to. They’re buying ‘coins’ with zero voting rights, zero regulations, zero oversight, zero compliance other than Github and Reddit peer review, and zero ownership in the companies they’re investing in. These ICOs are the ‘essence’ of the company and mean nothing.

The Reddit forums, as you would expect, are filled with people on suicide tilt, and true believers with confirmation bias who’re trying to say this pullback and China ban is a ‘good thing.’

This pretty much sums it up.