Surprisingly, it isn’t in the tech space. It’s Aluminum.
The worst is actually oil and gas drilling, off 44% on a median basis this year. But the close second one is a much great threat to the economy and our way of life: Department Stores.
To make money in this tape was simple this year. All you had to do was avoid oil and retail and get long a diversified basket of stocks — staunchly avoiding taking risks via overweight positions.
Question: if the economy is truly gearing up for a leg up, why isn’t oil trending higher now, especially with the dollar so weak?
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The only theme is short vol & long indexes.
Markets are being nationalized.
Global growth on the one hand and US fracking industry growth on the other is one guess.
My take: oil was never “worth” 90-110. The cartels held it there post crisis as to not bankrupt the industry.
Oil is being bought just not in USD. China buys oil for One Belt from Russia but has it all denominated in gold backed yuan. Russia gets to turn around and convert to gold and have contracts not denominated in $USD. Hence dollar demand lower.
Win-Win.
4-D chess at its finest.
I wouldn’t bet on oil staying down here with $ARAMCO coming. No way Saudis let crown jewel IPO with oil market in the tank.
Didn’t house of saud already delay the ipo?
I wonder if the whole selling of half the strategic oil reserves plan thingy is still on the table? Whoopsies
Think it’s an opportunity. FMSA
Oil’s fucked for non-economic reasons. The real story is copper – that shit is rippin’ tatas.
Why is aluminum the best performing industry of the year, isn’t the first question?