As much as I would like the world to burn, it just isn’t ready to happen. The early 2016 scare, emanating from China, is over. We see that in the share prices of Macau based casinos. And we are seeing strong economic data released on a monthly basis in China.
Caterpillar just released their retail data for May vs April and it’s indicating extreme optimism and a fuckload of sales.
Caterpillar reports May 2017 retail data; total machines worldwide +8% vs +1% in April of 2017
Total Machines (May 2017 vs April 2017)
Asia Pacific +49% versus +47%
EAME: -6% vs -10%
Latin America: -15% vs -30% North America: +2% vs -7% World: +8% vs +1%
Total Energy & Transportation (May 2017 vs April 2017)
Power Gen -10% vs -2% Industrial +4% vs -11%
Transportation +9% vs -3%
Oil and gas +13% vs +4%
Total +4% vs -2%
Industrials are on the rise, perhaps somewhat stymied by recent weakness in crude. Nevertheless, CAT is higher by 41% over the past year, in spite of declining revenues and earnings. But the stock was likely reflecting the turn we’re about to see now. Funny how the market knows, well in advance, when an economic tailwind is coming.
The bigger story here isn’t to shill for CAT, but instead highlight the fact that industrial activity is quickening.
Crude is getting crushed early going, off by more than 2%. I never believe what the headlines say when it comes to crude. I like to believe the commodity is used as an economic weapon to hurt others. Recent weakness in the commodity is linked to an upsurge in Libyan production, and of course shalefags on the US drilling like maniacs.
Crude stockpiles remain 100 million strong. The fact of the matter is, crude is in a danger zone now of slipping back into the $30s. If it does that, I think we’ll start to hear about wells getting shut in and smaller companies in danger of failing on their debt covenants.
Here is what Bloomberg is citing as notable in the crude space this morning.
Libya is pumping about 900,000 barrels a day, according to a person with direct knowledge of the matter, who asked not to be identified for lack of authority to speak to the media.
There were 5,946 drilled-but-uncompleted wells in U.S. oilfields at the end of May, the most in at least three years, according to EIA estimates.
Pierre Andurand’s oil hedge fund lost 17.3 percent in the year through May as one of the world’s most prominent energy bulls suffered in the wake of last month’s OPEC meeting, according to a document outlining the fund’s performance.
Bottom line: the sector is down 37% for the year. The notion that inflation is back is dead. We are raising rates in a deflationary environment. It’s only a matter of time before this all catches up to markets — currently in a haze, enjoying the low VIX environment.
I know Trumpfags will get upset with me over this issue — but Trumpcare is complete horseshit. It’s a different sort of horseshit than Obamacare — which was, essentially, free healthcare for homeless people — fucking everyone else. Trumpcare merely punts the homeless people into graveyards, whilst screwing everyone else.
How do I know this, without reading the gagillion pages in the healthcare bill?
The god damned healthcare stocks are higher.
Here are the YTD gains for some of the more prominent healthcare names.
I understand the vast majority of expenses emanates from real estate expenses. Pharamafags like to explain how the price of drugs is a transitory, almost meaningless, line item.
Go fuck yourselves.
Everything should be slashed. The healthcare lobbyists in DC should be rounded up and guillotined for ‘crimes against the people.’ The whole industry is one giant corrupt fuckery, designed to milk the dying baby boomers to maximum levels or carnivorous crony capitalism. Do not tell me that I should pay $2k per mo for a family plan, because MUH American exceptionalism produces great healthcare. What use is the healthcare if you don’t have access to it?
Both parties are complicit in perfidious fleecing of the middle class, through unbelievable corruption in healthcare.
Ever spend a weekend in the hospital? I once had to have a procedure done and was in between insurance plans — sticking me with a bill that amounted to tens of thousands. I had the money to pay it, but instead opted to tell them to ‘literally’ fuck themselves.
I will not be a party to ingratiating criminals who prey upon the weak and the poor to build monuments for themselves.
The only time that I can recall healthcare stocks getting drilled was when Bill Clinton proposed reform, which was defeated, helped by that fucking bastard BILL KRISTOL. With the benefit of hindsight, the Bill Clinton aka Hillary Clinton reform of 1993 was probably a good thing for ordinary folk. I recall seeing those stocks plunge lower on a daily basis, in an unbelievable manner. I was an intern at Seligman at the time and those greedy bastards were smartly buying the dip in those beaten down healthcare names. The carnage was truly palpable.
There is no such thing as win-win in the healthcare industry, for both consumer and provider. Someone has to lose; and as far as I am concerned, we’ve been on the losing end of the see-saw for the better part of forever.
Schumer ‘holding the floor’ tonight, in protest of the GOP bill. Like it fucking matters.
In spite of having 3 kids, I never succumbed to the pressures of buying a minivan. Often times, while on vacation, I rented them — but I never took the plunge into buying its convenience because of my ardent belief that they were for faggots.
I’ve always purchased large SUVs, eight-seaters, in order to ferry my children to and fro. In NYC, about 30% of residents do not drive — due to lack of parking spots and convenience of the big city rat’s nest.
But with the Amazon-Whole Foods deal, some are beginning to wonder what it might mean for the auto space, specifically the minivan. About 40% of people use their cars, primarily for shopping for food. What will the future look like, once autonomous cars and Amazon drones take over the grocery space.
It probably won’t eliminate the need for minivans and other large vehicles; but at the margins, it will certainly have an effect.
Interestingly, on the day Amazon announced it was acquiring Whole Foods, the auto dealership space was the worst performer. Large vehicles are the highest margins on the lots.
If Jeff Bezos ends up rendering the minivan extinct, it may very well end up being his best accomplishment ever.
Markets had a superb day, rising nearly 90 NASDAQS, in spite of abject weakness in the commodity sector. I suppose the so called ‘reflation’ trade is on hold, as everything else melts higher?
Gold and silver were down 0.8% and 1.22%, respectively.
WTI was lower by 1.3% to $44.38.
Copper, being the sole outlier, was higher by 0.98%.
The action in stocks can only be construed as positive. Good news is good news. Bad news is good news. Until that changes, your allocation to the market should be long. More to that point, you shouldn’t bother with laggards, since markets are hitting new highs. Things in motion tend to stay in motion. New record highs beget more record highs.
Hence, and this goes without saying, pursuing an active portfolio that is based around ‘chasing alpha’ is the preferred and only viable allocation for a tape like this.
Biotech stocks are gambling higher, just like the old days. You folks remember how those fuckers would scream higher in 2015, early 2016, before the bitch and the orange man started menacing them with their words? Ah, it was great. You could simply walk into work, copy and paste the portfolio of Baker Bros or glean into the genius of RANDALL ‘fucking’ KIRK and make a bundle.
But ever since that fucker, Martin Shkreli, got busted acting a fool with drug prices, the industry has been beset by political pressures. After all, Americans want cheap healthcare and they want the best. That’s a difficult thing to do. Look at Canada. They have free healthcare, but their doctors are retards. You’d be better off taking out your own appendix than having a Canadian doctor remove it for you.
Look at them run. I feel like a proud parent of a career bronze medalist who accidentally tripped into first place.
And here is the Exodus oscillator, showing the drugs are most OB since January of 2017. I’m sure it’ll be fine. Keep buying.
I’ve always said, there are simply two ways to get rich quick in the market.
Buy a distressed stock and ride it back up.
Buy a biotech, like CLVS, before phase 3 data is released.
The reason why biotechs are such great stocks is that private equity hasn’t figured out a way, yet, to hog all of the gains for themselves. For a biotech to truly be successful, the science has to work and the trials take a lot of time and money. Most private equities are drug addled misfits, who’d rather invest ‘in the next Snapchat’, criminally running up the valuation and declaring it gold only to cash out on an unsuspecting and low information public — who, incidentally, finance their criminal behavior so that it could be repeated.
GrubHub: WFM the main course, GRUB for dessert? — Wedbush
Wedbush speculates that with Amazon’s (AMZN) focus now squarely on food delivery, they believe GRUB may be its next acquisition target following WFM. They view the rationale for a GRUB acquisition by AMZN as sound: AMZN has already made its own foray into restaurant delivery with minimal success, the overlap between WFM customers and GRUB users likely high due to similar geographic footprint and value propositions, and synergies would likely be realized with GRUB’s operational and logistical infrastructure. Assuming a similar premium to WFM, they believe an acquisition price of~ $55 is well within the realm of possibility. This would equate to a GRUB EV of $4.5 billion, about a third of the cost of WFM.
Both steel and semis sold off last week. Both sectors couldn’t be different, with one leading the way towards innovation and the other a relic of the Victorian era. Needless to say, the market loves them both today.
Stop looking for reasons for these happenings, just embrace them. NASDAQS are surging ahead by 70, the Dow by 100, Russia is threatening war, and Trump is orange as fuck.
Life is good.
Steel was oversold last week. Look at the hybrid oscillator in Exodus. We do this stuff in real time.
Well, you wanted a war, very soon you might get one. As President Agent Orange is busy trying to untangle himself from deep state chicanery, the U.S. military is running rampant overseas, desperately trying to start a war with Russia. After all, we need a good adversary, one that could justify reimplementing the draft — permitting all of those anti-Russian ANTIFA types to head out overseas and kill a Russian for the sake of democracy.
In response to the U.S. shooting down a Syrian fighter over ISIS controlled Raqqa, Russia announced they’ve halted any cooperation agreed upon in 2015 and will subsequently shoot down any aircraft over areas under their command in Syria.
Statement of the Russian defence ministry fact downing of thunder in a Syrian Village Al-Rasafe Su-22 aircraft Syrian Air Force:
” on 18 June 2017 G. American F-18 fighter from the international coalition missile-air plane ” SU-22 Syrian air force, as the support units of government troops, leading offensive against ISIS terrorists, in the town of al-rasafe (40 kilometers southwest of g. Raqqa).
Striking a Syrian aircraft was destroyed. Syrian air force pilot ejected over the area controlled by ISIS, terrorists, his fate is unknown.
Syrian air force aircraft destroying American Aviation in Syrian airspace, cynical violation of the sovereignty of the Syrian Arab Republic.
Repeated Hostilities Aviation USA under the guise of “fighting terrorism” against the legitimate armed forces United Nations Member States, are a flagrant violation of international law and in fact – military aggression towards the Syrian Arab Republic.
Moreover, the Syrian air space at a given time, the tasks of Russian aircraft of the code. However, coalition forces not utilized an existing channel of communication between air commands airbase el udeyd (Qatar) and hmeymim airbase to prevent incidents in Syrian air space.
Consider this action U.S. military commanders as wilful failure to comply with its obligations under the memorandum of the prevention of incidents and ensure flight safety aviation during operations in Syria, dated 20 October 2015 G.
The Ministry of defence of the Russian Federation from 19 June this year. Ceases to interaction with the American side in the framework of the memorandum on the prevention of incidents and ensure flight safety aviation during operations in Syria, and requires a thorough investigation into the American command with providing information about its results and the measures taken.
In areas of non-Combat-capable of Russian aircraft in the sky of Syria any aerial installations, including planes and unmanned international coalition found west of r. Euphrates will be taken in by Russian escort aircraft ground and air defence as air targets “.
Russia maintains both s-300 and s-400 surface to air missile defense systems, considered to be amongst the most advanced anti-aircraft batteries in the world.
Here’s a little excrement to go with your morning cup of coffee. Enjoy.
Wayfair downgrade details — to Hold at Maxim Group (76.17)
MercadoLibre upgraded to Buy at Citigroup (263.45)
SMART Global initiation details — Buy at Stifel; tgt $27 (15.30)
Jagged Peak Energy initiated with a Buy at KLR Group; tgt $21 (12.97)
Wayfair downgraded to Hold from Buy at Maxim Group (76.17)
Live Nation downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Northcoast (36.42)
WideOpenWest initiated with a Outperform at Macquarie; tgt $20 (17.59)
Credit Suisse upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank (13.54)
Digimarc target raised to $42 at Needham — Amazon/Whole Foods could speed Digimarc barcode adoption (37.00)
SMART Global initiated with a Strong Buy at Needham; tgt $20 (15.30)
Dycom: Buy DY, MTZ on improving end-market trends in 2018 — FBR & Co. (89.06)
Johnson Controls initiated with a Mkt Outperform at JMP Securities; tgt $54 (41.86)
Hubbell initiated with a Mkt Perform at JMP Securities (117.49)
Emerson initiated with a Mkt Outperform at JMP Securities (60.68)
Eaton initiated with a Mkt Perform at JMP Securities (76.80)
WideOpenWest initiated with a Buy at SunTrust; tgt $24 (17.59)
Ardagh Group initiated with a Market Perform at BMO Capital Markets; tgt $26 (22.24)
Appian initiated with a Outperform at Cowen; tgt $21 (18.22)
American Campus Communities upgraded to In-line from Underperform at Evercore ISI (48.32)
Appian initiated with a Hold at Canaccord Genuity; tgt $18 (18.22)
Appian initiated with a Sector Weight at Pacific Crest (18.22)
Appian initiated with a Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; tgt $18 (18.22)
Kroger downgraded to Equal-Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley (22.29)
Impinj downgraded to Equal-Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley (55.71)
Travelers downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA/Merrill (129.44)
SMART Global initiated with a Buy at Stifel; tgt $27 (15.30)
WideOpenWest initiated with a Strong Buy at Raymond James; tgt $21 (17.59)
WideOpenWest initiated with a Outperform at Credit Suisse; tgt $20 (17.59)
Cedar Fair added to Conviction Buy List at Goldman (70.68)
Athene Holding upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse (48.87)
TripAdvisor downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse (37.91)
WideOpenWest initiated with a Outperform at Evercore ISI; tgt $20 (17.59)
Appian initiated with a Neutral at Goldman; tgt $17 (18.22)
Appian initiated with a Equal Weight at Barclays; tgt $19 (18.22)
WideOpenWest initiated with a Buy at UBS; tgt $21 (17.59)
Donnelley Financial initiated with a Neutral at Citigroup; tgt $25 (23.13)
Red Hat: First quarter preview, expect in-line-to-better results — RBC Capital Mkts (87.85)
WideOpenWest initiated with a Outperform at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt $20 (17.59)
Uniti Group initiated with a Outperform at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt $32 (26.73)
AGCO Corp upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at BofA/Merrill (67.34)
CNH Industrial upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill (11.63)
Atwood Oceanics downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Piper Jaffray (9.01)
Ensco upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Jaffray (5.71)
Biogen upgraded to Neutral from Sell at UBS (251.74)
Allscripts Healthcare downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at Leerink Partners (12.47)
Orange downgraded to Sell from Hold at Berenberg (16.52)
SMART Global initiated with a Overweight at Barclays; tgt $19 (15.30)
SMART Global initiated with a Buy at Jefferies; tgt $21 (15.30)
SMART Global initiated with a Buy at Deutsche Bank; $18 tgt (15.30)
Thomson Reuters upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank (45.78)
Qualcomm resumed with a Hold at Deutsche Bank; $62 tgt (56.82)
NXP Semi downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank (109.09)
Costco downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank (167.11)
AK Steel upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Longbow (5.99)
Nucor upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Longbow (54.92)
Steel Dynamics upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Longbow (33.18)
U.S. Steel upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Longbow (20.16)
FedEx: Thoughts into the Q4 earnings — Cowen (210.50)
