There’s appreciable weakness in the dollar today, off by ~1% v the euro. Additionally, sovereign bond yields are spiking, finally — up 6bps to 2.19% on the 10yr. Oil is very strong and gold is enjoying a minor reprieve.
What does it all mean?
I wouldn’t look too much into today’s rotation out of tech into commodities and banks. This is reminiscent of the ‘Trump trade’ when The Donald was first elected, minus the dollar weakness. I cannot say, with any varying degree of certainty, that this trend will last — when in fact — crude has been nothing short of dreadful on a year to date basis.
Instead, I’d rather let the numbers tell the story, which is why I’ve chosen to invest quantitatively for 2017 — based on certain disciplines outlined in Exodus.
Here is my portfolio for the week. It will most likely be liquidated this Friday for a new one.
I will manhandle the SPY each and every week, with grace and without breaking a sweat. I will demonstrate to you how investing could be both fun and rewarding, without having to monkey around with charts, lamenting about rotation, or second guess trades. I hope you’re paying attention to this, since it will most likely be my grand opus in my philosophy for investing.
Breadth stands at 51%. If you didn’t bottom fish yesterday, you’re not making money today. If you’re trying to chase alpha by buying department stores and oil today, you’ll most likely be disappointed tomorrow.
There’s a better way. Trust me.
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Strange goings on today. Zerohedge reporting that HK midcaps being crushed due to margin calls – and CCs total cap dropped almost $5 billion (to about $88 billion down from peak of $114 billion a few days ago) but has recovered a little. Wonder if there is any connection between HK margins and CCs.
It is well-known that the dollar is pegged to CNN’s credibility. Fortunes are being made today at Infowars dot com where Bill Clinton is commonly known at “The Rapist.”
Might need to adjust TLT accordingly.
If by Friday TLT has underperformed stocks, the position will be reduced.
I remember years ago Senior Tropicana saying relative returns were useless and only absolute returns mattered. And now here we are. Any words of advice for your younger self? We all get old eventually?
I hear the Big Kahuna burger is a tasty burger.