By the first quarter of next year, the 10 year treasury will hit 1%. By precisely December the 31st, 2016, yields will quote 1.25%, says the sages at Morgan Stanley.
Morgan Stanley, which advised investors to bet on bonds before the U.K. vote to leave the European Union sent global debt markets surging, says Treasury yields are poised to extend their record lows.
The 10-year yield will fall to 1.25 percent by Dec. 31, the company predicts, cutting its forecast from 1.75 percent. It will tumble to 1 percent in the first quarter of 2017, based on the forecasts.
Treasuries will stay in a range in the third quarter, Morgan Stanley predicts. The forecasts were in an e-mail from Matthew Hornbach, the head of global interest-rate strategy in New York. Morgan Stanley is one of the 23 primary dealers that trade directly with the Federal Reserve.
Naturally, this bodes poorly for the risk on perverts who traverse these halls. Then again, who said Morgan Stanley knows anything about bonds? The prevailing trend has been lower for yields, inexorably, for the better part of the last 8 years, so I’m gonna take them at their word.
If our 10 yr is to hit 1%, what in the world will the German bund be by that time? Negative 2 percent?
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man, this is some depressing shit. is the world really turning into chaos ? im amazed, every time i watch the news or come on here to read, there seems to be another tragedy.
the only thing great about this year is weve been in gold and TLT. thanks fly for your prescience.
“Welcome to the party pal” – John Mcclane
If there’s one lesson of the past 8 years, it’s that economic and financial conditions can last far longer than people think. The average investor or trader does not have the patience, mindset or fortitude to endure what seems to be a period that seems to border on forever (6 months). Thanks to 24/7 news and access everyone is now an investor, everyone can analyze markets, pick stocks and weigh in on the economy. Really? I think not.
That’s the lesson of the last 20+ years. Greenspan made his irrational exuberance comment in 1996 and the NASDAQ doubled from then to the tech top.
I’m not sure we fully paid for the sins of 2006-2009. That bill is going to come due at some point. I wish I knew when but I nor anyone else has any idea but it will hit us at some point and it will be a hot mess.
Also agree but not in my lifetime.
Permabears said pay-now, or delay
I don’t know why what you just said
would be revelationary in any way
Oh do you mean that ship already sailed?
They’ve been preaching doomsday my entire life, and I’m 54 years old. I’ll believe it when I see it.
The world only seems “worse” now because we have fucking Facebook to amplify every tiny tragedy into Horrifying Evidence of the End Times. Everyone’s a sage, everyone has a talking point, everyone is a walking thinkpiece. Go watch some of the World War II footage, the Holocaust, the Russians eating their dead in Leningrad. We came back from that. Permabears are always wrong in the long run, but even if they get that one chance to be right, who feels like saying “I told you so”?
Fuck it, I’m sacking up and buying.
No where to go but the stocked market. See you at SPX 3K.
SPX3x.. I like. Agree.
You realize you’re only asking for equities to be 40% higher, with, the same stagnant metrics here 40% lower in which everyone is ‘shockingly’ pointing out the divergences, wondering how we got here. You realize how intellectually-lobotomized that is (?)
Intellectually lobotomized, indeed.