In Exodus, there is a seasonality engine that spits out all sorts of interesting facts, like TQQQ (triple upside NASDAQ) has never traded down during the month of July.
Also, out of 31 years being publicly traded, AMGN has a 77.42% win rate during the month of July, for an average return of +6.82%. Both UA and BIDU sport 11%+ returns in July and China seems to bode well, up 9 out of the last 11 years.
On the downside, both CI and AMD are cursed during July, lower in more than 75% of the time–spanning 33 and 34 years, respectively. If you’re long CI, you’ve done well. If you’ve avoided holding CI during July, you’ve done better.
Some stocks have never gone up in July, such as ADXS, ANGI, HHC, JIVE and of course SQQQ. It’s also a dreadful time to bet against REITs, with DRV sporting a -10.65% return in July.
All in all, July is a respite, in an otherwise unremarkable time for stocks.
It goes without saying, all of these things could fail to occur this month, during this year. That’s how averages are built. But the probabilities point towards a somewhat sanguine market.
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