Let’s recap the past month of trade, a month which I predicted would mark the top in the broader indices dating back to February.
S&P is -3%.
China is -10.7%
Japan -4.4%
Germany -6.4%
France -5.5%
I think it’s fair to say, thus far, that my predictions for a May correction, stretching all the way towards the end of the time/space continuum have proven to be sagely.
Markets closed down a little less than 100. It would’ve been far worse, had it not been for the energetic gains in WMT. All sectors were weak, with exception to the dividend rich utilities. In a way, today’s drop was keenly representative of a classic risk off day. The price action has been, hitherto, cordial and methodical in its effervescent climb towards new highs. Oil is up more than 50% from the lows and a vast swath of commodity related stocks are up triple digits. It’s very easy to sit here, from the sidelines, and prognosticate doom. Bear in mind, aside from my small TLT position, I have no vested interest in seeing stocks trade lower. It isn’t to my benefit to see the overwhelming majority of my readers and members of Exodus to lose money in equities. Rather, I feel an intense duty to bring forth evidence, to an otherwise catatonic and very sleepy audience, that things are changing for the worse. The fabric from which this rally was built upon is being destroyed. In my estimation, it’s only a matter of time before the seams give way to the pressure and markets resume the treacherous path it forged back in February.
Gun to head still see market down 30% end of 2016? It seems like everyone is bearish nowadays. Make me think it is more than unlikely a correction or bear market is looming. But hey, what the hell do I know lol
Hard to make a huge call like that.
You saved me a lot of money this year Fly, with your excellent call on the crash and subsequent rally. I ignored your advice this May like a willful little boy, and was burned for it. I am now sitting safely on the sidelines until some semblance of sanity returns to the markets, or I see something so stupidly overextended that I have to trade it.
No need to press the envelope. We’re not gamblers.
“All sectors were weak, with exception to the dividend rich utilities.”
Retail (XRT) was up for the 2nd day, thanks to WMT. I’ve been keeping track because I’ve been long DG, short DLTR for a while now.
The Ark looks like it’s stuck on the edge of an iceberg… Will the Fed sink it?