Stocks edged crept lower throughout the day, as profits were taken and men of industry ran for the hills, ever so quietly. Although I’m cautiously pessimistic about the market, I do think, however, it can rally through April. Nevertheless, my selling is done and I have zero equity exposure.
For the year, thus far, long TLT and trading the oversold signals of Exodus, I am up 1.35%.
NOTE: Tonight at 7pm, Vince aka RAUL will be doing a demo for the Exodus market intelligence platform. For those of you who are on the fence about joining the league of men, purchase a ticket and also access the video archives of the last 4 days, featuring J. Macke and J. Kohler.
All in all, it was a fine week. The bulls retain the initiative heading into next week. Should oil move to the upside, or the Fed make some conciliatory comments regarding policy, I suspect the market will take another led to the upside, making it all the more punitive for anyone holding shorts.
Cheers
If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
Flawless execution Dr. Fly.
*tips hat*
Here’s the only problem I see with your “oversold” strategy – we very well could go through a period where markets just churn higher and higher without every offering another comfortable entry…
Play on playa
Friday and I miss Louis Rukeyser. What a great program: a round table discussion followed by “tonights special guest” in a conversation. Now we have anchors who must be trained to talk so fast, and maybe its four anchors to one guest: how rude and how unlikely to provide meaningful content. Some of the anchors talk so fast you cannot see their lips moving.
Jim Henson is rolling in his grave.
TeeVee networks have found that meaningful content doesn’t get viewers.
For the year, thus far, long TLT and trading the oversold signals of Exodus, I am up 1.35%. …..
Are you trying to badger Le fly for being honest and sticking to a plan in what some would call times of uncertainty?
No Moosh and hats off to the Fly. Many people are down many are up and many are flat…….but with 1.35% returns you may as well sit in money market during these Uncertain Times … no?
The monthly charts suggest the market is leaning towards more downside activity. Trading only oversold conditions means you are trading against the prevailing/longer term trend. Yes rallies are short sharp and brutish but to really capture that volatility requires nimble trading so far exodus looks like it gets you in the trade too early and out too soon.
I wonder why Exodus doesn’t trade overbought conditions as well?
If you annualized out 1.35% thru 2 months, that comes out to around 8%
What’s a money market fund paying again?
Do you ever trade any other markets outside of equities?
I’d go into detail why the 1.35% is excellent for s number of reason, the first being the absence of heart stopping volatility.
I am busy now.
Just know that I expect the oversold signals to increase with its precision throughout the year, now that it has seen these stress levels.
heart stopping volatility…. really we have entered a two sided market since last fall. Bigger picture I share your view that more downside work needs to be done I do however wish to exploit the sector rotations taking place and in the broad based ETF’s take advantage of selling res and buying support
The topic of sector rotations interests me immensely.
As far as just leaving money in cash or money market: I am here to play, not watch. I am a participant
Yes FLY your a trader my Q is why not trade OB as well as OS ?
Perhaps he doesn’t want the reputation as a short seller
@rtcushing
TLT cap gain of 7% YTD plus div yld of 2.5% ……so using your logic IF FLY went all in on TLT this year at the end of the year he would be up (cap gain) on annualized basis of 42% plus the yield of 2.5%?
The TLT has hedged his SPY which so far buying the OS signals has been a net detractor. hopefully Exodus improves over time and the results will bear fruit for the effort put into trading the SPY.
@Moosh….. YTD the XLU and XLP were attracting money…. people need staples and as the specter of interest rate hikes has lessened people need income/yield. these two groups have done well. Gold and the miners have been on a tear as well as currency devaluations have picked up steam…the HUI has gone from 114 to 161.50. GC has gone from 1056 to 1220……
these are the 3 major rotations that I see under way…..
PS today was very interesting in that both XLP and XLU had massive selling… where did that money go? Risk on???
Thanks anjing,
The PS part. Peeps are making plans to travel big time, me thinks….then Industrials? Tech? I am a little surprised how quite the VR space is now.
Moosh
yes industrial XLI has traded back to flat for the yea rand large cap tech with fortress like balance sheets and reasonable GARP will be screen well for value investors….
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2016-01-22-apple-hires-virtual-reality-expert
@toad37
Perhaps he doesn’t want the reputation as a short seller…fair enough … strident short sellers seem to be marginalized by the MSM and if you are trying to reach a broader audience then I can see that POV. thx!
Open minds open opportunities…..
Would like to hear his answer as well, but I think that’s the answer in a nutshell 🙂
Thx Toad …you look familiar have I seen you on the internet before….LOL
As wonderful as TLTs dividends are, selling otm calls against at least part of your long position juices the return. And when it’s oversold, putting selling a put spread. And just for fun, buying covered shares in TMF. No reason it can’t be fun.
Good move Senor Fly. This tape is going to crash. Everyone knows it. This tape is going to crash.
I have no problem shorting and don’t care about Msm appeal. I am using the oversold because it’s my belief policy markers will do everything in their power to provide a bid. Hence, the larger returns will be during periods of extreme stress.
I might change my plans as the year goes on. Let’s see.
U R not kidding about policy makers doing everything they can to provide a bid. It’s a great risk to be short overnight, when some government may decide to do some market cocaine stimulus. The market may have looked like death itself at the previous market close, and then the futs are suddenly up a million. It can be hard to predict the timing of these things.
@Fly…thanks I really appreciate you taking the time to share that insight. In a less volatile market the OS indicators will most likely operate a bit better. The fast furious free fall trips these indicators too quickly IMO.
Again thx for taking the time to explain your rationale… open minds open opportunities!