It’s all very amusing to see these Federal Reserve employees, out and about, yammering about the virtues of raising rates. Without fail, each time they do this, the market drops, precipitously. By extension of this indelible fact and without question, the Federal Reserve is purposely trying to inflict monetary damage upon holders of equities.
From my vantage point, these dire circumstances superseded any seasonality strengths that I’ve been pointing towards– when discussing the specter of a rally. Without a shadow of a doubt, stocks wanted to trade up; and they would have if it weren’t for the Federal Reserve getting in the way, once again.
Under the backdrop of a looming crisis, both abroad and domestically, I am rescinding my calls for a large and protracted rally through April. I do, however, reserve the rights to change my mind again, should the atmosphere change. If there’s one thing that has helped me, more than anything else, it is my changeability when analyzing the market. I stridently reject the notion that opinions should be formed and adhered to, despite the facts on the ground moving from bad to worse.
The risks are clear, present and harbor grave dangers.
They are, as follows.
Commodity implosion
BREXIT fears
Federal Reserve devils
Bank exposure to bad debt
Presidential elections and the candidates who hate Wall Street
China and their chicanery
Russia and Syria
Slowing U.S. economy
FX turmoil
Good luck. Trade accordingly. God speed.
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CAR and SLCA. lolz
Fly it is always prudent to reassess the landscape when new facts come into play. Being wedded to a bias is a frustrating experience. The ability to keep a mind open to all possibilities is freedom.
As I’m sure you are aware, all those risks were present last week when the market was going up. Plus the TeeVee was full of Devil Dogs.
The big difference this week is that the Fed is being Devil Dogs again. The others don’t matter. But when the Fed tries to push the market down, they succeed. “Market decline sponsored by the Fed” sure is right.
watching quants work makes me feel warm & fuzzy
Wrong. That is not the sponsor of the sell off…funny how the world is missing the reason? Well they missed the bubble forming too.
lolz the conspiracy
LOL, I’m sure it’s just a coincidence that every time the Fed tries to push the market down, it always goes down.
Blahblahblah and Frog…lol….It’s Kuroda . No Conspiracy at all. Just look at USD/JPY and listen to what he has been saying for the last two days. There are no Good Global Fundies at all, only Central Bank Cocaine…Japan isn’t giving any in March in a big way so we sell off. No Mystery.
i don’t give markets that much credit regarding moves
Japan was buying up treasuries. USD/JPY rallied up and now fading after auction. Oil following weaker dollar. That is fading.
Some macro insights from another source:
Jobless claims now at the lower end of the range.
http://www.financialjumble.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Weekly-Jobless-Claims-Trend.jpg
Merger activity also peaking (UTC & Honeywell talks get a wow from me). So, M&A takes place and they don’t hire more people, they lay them off. So yea, jobless claims about to rise soon. You look at that chart and a recession shortly follows the bottom. Longer-term view, it’s coming. Board the ark and order pizza delivery until you can’t.
Markit Service Flash Data darn ugly today for USA.
did you enjoy the noon ramp
@lp strong picture to remind people how jobless claims are lagging indicator. the problem, and by no means am I calling you out on this, is when does rubber meet the road? at the earliest, i see June or July of this year, but could start as far out into 2017. the reality is though that it’ll eventually happen.
Saudi oil comments did not help at all. They can live with $20 oil?
one dollar in oil = 15 SPY the new math