Goldman: ‘There’s Nothing to Fear, But Fear Itself’; Fade Gold

Goldman is out with a note today that is sure to be making the rounds, suggesting to fade gold and the idea that the collapse in oil will result in systemic risk to the banking system.

There’s “nothing to fear but fear itself,” the analysts entitled the seven-page note, channeling comments from Roosevelt’s 1933 inauguration when the U.S. economy was being ravaged by the Great Depression. “It’s time to sell the fear barometer,” the bank said, and recommended shorting gold.

Gold jumped to highest since February 2015 last week as sinking equity markets, weaker oil prices, and diminished bets for higher U.S. borrowing costs spurred haven demand. Prices were further boosted by the spread of negative interest rates and concerns about a crisis in Europe’s banks. Goldman said it still expected rates to rise, putting the odds of U.S. recession at just 15 to 20 percent, and rejected the notion that a re-run of the crisis was likely.

‘Not Justified’

“We believe that these new fears, like past fears, are not justified,” the analysts wrote in the e-mailed report, which didn’t cite the president’s name alongside the headline. “Systemic risks stemming from the collapse in oil and commodity prices are extremely small.”

Gold is sharply lower in the overnight session, off by more than 3%. Equity markets are in full fledged global rally mode.