ICAHN WARNS OF ‘LOOMING CATASTROPHE’ JUST AFTER DOUBLING DOWN ON COMMODITY BETS

Icahn is out with this gem this morning, warning America of a great doom approaching, probably because he was just outbid at a Sotheby’s art auction.

Before you go freaking out because Carl Icahn is coming out with his bearish thesis soon, just know he always says this stuff, just prior to taking billion dollar positions in the riskiest stock bets in the world.

Only in this instance, he just took down an 8.5% position in FCX, bought MOAR CVR and also a little CHK and RIG to boot, just a few weeks ago–prior to these statements. Perhps he’s lost his marbles?

Or, maybe Carl is doing what Carl does best: look out for his best interests.

Don’t be surprised to learn that Uncle Carl bought into this decline, even while warning the great unwashed public of cataclysm.

Stocks are getting hammered into the fucking ground this morning, led by Apple. They announced iPhone 6s sales beat by 1 million, to 13 milliion units. Wall Street is in full retard mode.

Biotech is being destroyed, yet again. I cannot believe JAZZ is this low. They stand to earn $10 this year. Amazing.

Finally, NFLX is up. That’s your market America.

How was your weekend? Did you miss the stock market? Don’t worry, you’ll be enjoying yourselves soon amidst a sea of carcasses, as we pile drive into the blood. For those of you who are short: congrats. You’ve managed to hold your butter and withstand the temptation of profit. You’re probably a genius or a moron, which would eplain your recent success.

As for stocks, only the long bond appears to be working today. Commodities are off terribly, as the continent of Europe cascades away from the light, into the depths of an evil darkness not seen since the fun days of panic–circa 2011.

All eyes will be on biotech, to see if risk appetite continues to get devoured whole, or perhaps a miracle asserts itself in the form of a relief rally.

So today’s astrological significance, super blood moon/ total eclipse, is a once in a life time occurrence that has all of the “astro-bears” out with tidings of doom. Pray tell me, why do all of these omens couple with events of horror? Why can’t we all just drink a few martinis and see the market go higher?

Last week’s spectacle of our Federal Reserve Chairwoman mouth vomiting at the end of her abbreviated speech, followed by the absurd excuse of dehydration following a long, arduous day of speaking to other human beings, lends to an already uncertain environment, one that is ruled and enforced by the clowns out in Beijing.

China is slowing. Europe is staid. South America is a mess. Africa has never been relevant. American is the last hope for a generation of unfortunate souls, who’ve braved the burden of a volatile stock market–dating back to 1997.

One thing I can promise you is this: we could be entering the worst bear market since 2008 and you can still get wiped out leaning in short at the wrong time. Go into my archives and view the commentary from March of 2008. See how I was having fits short a market that was hell bent on bouncing, pretending nothing was wrong. Once the sellers exhaust themselves, buyers will creep back in and then drop the fucking anvil of absolute death onto their faces. It’s going to be horrific. We’re already deeply oversold and only a moron would press his shorts here.

We bounce. That’s all there is to it.

I like SHAK, GG, AMCX.

As you probably know by now, I’m a big fan of Sherlock Holmes. My favorite teevee show of all-time was House, which was based off the Sherlock Holmes character. The new BBC version of Sherlock, starring Benedict Cumberbatch, was fantastic. And, despite what a few tolls had to say about Robert Downey Jr. playing the famous detective,  both movies acted out by the former drug addict were smashing successes.

Naturally, I prefer the second movie–because it stars his nemesis Moriarty. The ebb and flow between the two characters was great. Plus, we got to see the famed showdown at the end of the second movie. They did not disappoint. Bottom line, if you haven’t seen these movies and enjoy a good mystery, do yourselves a favor and rent both of them this weekend.

I’ll get you through this shit. I promise you. I always do.

For Exodus members, my top 10 holdings are in the blog section now. Also, don’t forget to secure your ticket to the iBC Conference. If you upgrade your membership to annual, you will be admitted for free.

Lastly, the bloggers here have been through this type of end of days action before. Now is the time to get perspectives and advice from those with experience, After Hours with Option Addict and 12631 are fantastic places to garner insight–much better than the muck on television and on Twitter.

Markets are setting up for a decisive move soon. My guess is to the upside, despite what we’re seeing here now. I am not a fan of shorting into holes or buying into 1,000 point rips. Mean reversion always comes through during the clutch. We’re real clutchy right now.

Stocks are being lit the fuck up. A full reversal of fortune is happening. This was somewhat predictable, being that NKE was the Dow points and breadth stood at a paltry 51% at the highs of the session.

This downslide is being led by biotech stocks, following news that money isn’t all that valuable for the industry anymore. Bernard Sanders, prospective President of the United Steaks, will transfer the profits from the biotechs into homeless shelters and hospices.

Seriously, though, the Fed Chair is seizing out in public, Russia is moving drones into Syria, Iran is shitting on American flags while accepting our peace offerings, and Obama is the Manchurian candidate– a Kenyan who snuck into the White House to fuck it.

THIS IS THE WORST FUCKING WEEK EVER, for biotech. Come look at the carnage, son.

Here’s big pharma

Data provided by Exodus.

In my experience, these types of drops are either immense buying opportunities or a prelude of hideous things to come. The banks endured this type of pin action in early 2008, before melting the fuck down in the latter part of the year.

We all know the biotech sector is overvalued. Why is that? It’s Fred Wilson’s fault. All of the tech IPO’s are incubated for years, jacked up by assholes, then dumped onto an unsuspecting public who provide liquidity for the VC devils. So we became keen to this game and opted to steer clear of the scams. We bought up the biotechs because the FDA offered us extreme upside, upside that wasn’t controlled by Mr. Wilson.

It was a high risk trade and it’s dead now. This is a bear market, 100%. Position for recession. Stocks like CLX, CL and PG might do okay. I think it’s abundantly clear that you should be selling short the rips now. The Fed put was swallowed by  the incompetent Janet Yellen– and mouth vomited– on stage, for the world to see.

https://youtu.be/lrcj_4_k0Vc?t=194

So Exodus had just flagged 3 consecutive OS signals in a row, something of an oddity since 2009. The results are in: 200+ point melt up, albeit a weak one.

The point is, the SPY is now up for all of those watermarks.

Second, I ran some scans to try to identify a trend, any trend for that matter. I could live with this market, as long as there is rhyme, reason and order to it.

Here’s what I found, delving into companies whose markets caps exceed $5 billion.

Software stocks are exhibiting strength. I recall an old deskmate of mine who used to buy software stocks and nothing else. When times were tough in the market, he was the only one making commissions. He’s walk around the joint like he fucking owned the place. His head got so big, he got himself fired for impersonating a sales manager and signing trade tickets for other reps. Brokers would line up to get him to sign their tickets. He’d sign anything, mainly because he gave zero fucks.

Here are some software names that have been outperforming.

INTU, CRM, MSCI, MSFT, RHT.

Soda pop

MNST, DPS, KO.

Business services

BR, CTAS, GPN, IRM, PYPL, VRSK.

Cleaning products

CHD, CLX

Discount Stores

COST, DG, DLTR, TGT

A shit load of utilities

Just buy XLU

Personal Products

PG, EL

Packaged and Processed Foods

FLO, GIS

Property and Casualty Insurance

ACE, ALL, CB, HIG

Restaurants

DRI, QSR, SBUX

Waste Management

RSG, SRCL

Listen to me: these are recessionary allocations. This doesn’t necessarily mean we are barreling towards recession. However, money managers are positioning for it.

John Boehner is resigning, Janet Yellen is dehydrated, and the market is having its shittiest 200 point rally ever.

Bears should be thrilled by today’s action. The recession trade is on, inspite of today’s 3.9% GDP numbers for q2.

Look at my CLX.

Fear my CLX, for its success means the markets demise.

Biotech still sucks. Tech is mailing it in. We still fear everything.

We are living in dark, dark times. I have a blogger writing for me who moved from the north east corridor of the United Steaks, left the business of professional money management, to oversea the destruction of mankind from the comfort of his volcano-side cottage.

During a speech today, Federal Reserve Chief, Janet Yellen, felt ill and needed to seek medical attention.

“Chair Yellen felt dehydrated at the end of a long speech under bright lights. As a precaution, she was seen by EMT staff on-site at U-Mass Amherst. She felt fine afterward and has continued with her schedule Thursday evening,” the Fed said in a statement.

Before that happened, futures were flat. After that happened, they spiked by 96.

INDEUD.

“I’m keeping it 100 with you dog. This bitch ain’t built for this game, nah mean, son?”
Dr. Benjamin Bernanke, Corner Office, Citadel

Oil and gas stocks are down 80% from their highs. Over the past 3 month, the median return of the oil and gas equipment space is -40%, spearheaded by cremation trading in PBR, LNG, CLR and WLL. Name the oil stock and it’s down 30% over the past 90 days. If you’ve been concentrated in this sector, your game is over.

Similar carnage can be found in aluminum (-37%), solar (-35%), Mineral and Metals (-32%), Semis- Memory chips (-32%), Chinese Burritos (-30%), Steel and Iron (-30%), Nuclear (-30%), Shipping (-30%), Silver (-28%), Rubber and Plastics (-27%), Copper (-26%), Chemicals-Major (-25%), Alternative Energy (-25%), Computer peripherals (-25%), Internet Service Providers (-24%). I can go on for days. Out of 200+ industries, only a handful were up: Home Healthcare, Airlines, Utilities and some REITs.

It’s really real out there. Broader indices mask the pain that is pervasive in the tape. Short sellers have been rewarded with epic gains. They are firmly in control of the dialogue and steering this grand equity party into the dirt, thanks in large part to an incompetent government, whose high tax/regulatory environment have stressed the economy into a standstill.

Aside from that, the Federal Reserve put, that has been in place since 2009, is gone. Fed Chief Yellen is weak and doesn’t have control of her board governors, who make speech after speech, discussing the virtues of a potential rate hike.

Really?

How about we see a little inflation first, before tightening the money supply?

The bottom line is this: the dollar is +15% over the past two years, +5% year to date. Our corporations are being gimp’d, placed upon the altar of sacrifice because we are being led by quisling incompetents.