Odds Are, We Go Higher

However, in the event this support, this level of oversold doesn’t hold, you want to be cautious here. Right now, right here, is a very important level for the short term sentiment of stocks. Despite my predisposition to believe stocks are guided, ultimately, by its fundamentals, certain harbingers of doom present themselves to us in the form of price action–often. Last year, this time, bubble stocks nearly destroyed me. I’ve built my business on the bones of others for over 15 years and in one fell swoop, last year, it almost drifted away into the winds of oblivion. Naturally, such a thing as that is nearly impossible for a person of my high caliber. Nevertheless, it got dicey for a minute there, and for most of 2014.

But this is a new year. We have new ideas and a fresh approach to stocks, hell bent on redemption and bleeding out our enemies through acts of attrition.

If this were another time, I’d join you in your holy war against the devils who shorted your stocks. We’d smash them to bits and pieces, take their valuables, then set off for new lands. But I must remain cautious, in the most stoic of ways possible. My returns of 13.5% must stick and I must build upon it, for it is a fortune worth preserving.

Bottom line: I am waiting for confirmation of a bounce and will stay cash heavy until I see courage.