No one ever made money by panicking out of stocks. Sure, you could save some money, by avoiding the downdraft. But where’s the glory in that? If you’re not in the game, you’re out. If you’re out, in due time, you will be shining my shoes.
I’ve made it a habit to always be in the mix, take action–because complacency is the cousin of death.
Do you hate stocks?
Then you should short them.
Do you believe stocks will be higher by Turkey Day?
Get long.
As you read this, there is a stiff wind emanating from the west (Bleak House) and stocks are lifting off their lows. What do you intend to do? Fade it or own it?
The pressure on crude has led to this: full scale liquidation of the commodity space. Names like SLCA, EMES and PTEN have been getting bludgeoned to death. A whole slew of oil and gas stocks are off by 7%+ today, which is totally nonsensical given the price of crude. Nonetheless, this is just one of the many hurdles one must jump when investing.
People leverage up their accounts and are forced to sell when the idea doesn’t work out. If you are in a position to buy the liquidation, you stand to make a great deal of money. The problem with buying a dip in a name like SLCA and EMES, both of which I am long, is you don’t know how low it can go. Right now they aren’t trading on fundies, only supply versus demand. Clearly, the supply is very high and demand is nowhere to be found. I am not buying because I’d rather buy it when it upticks, instead of knife catching.
But, as a long, I cannot sell into this rabble, this perverted distortion of speculation.
Unless we’ve figured out how to harness the sun and replace the gasoline powered engine on a large scale, oil will always have a bid.
The one exception would be in the event of a credit meltdown, a la 2008.
Nevermind what the market does today. I want to talk about the real plague that is damaging the purses (tinky winky) of investors: negativity.
Listen to me son: what’s with your obsession with calling a market top? Have you not learned your lesson to avoid doing that, over the past 60 months? The moment the music slows down or stops for a bit, you pop out from your boxes and declare victory. You aren’t victorious, only an ordinary, run of the mill, loser and a huckster– who can’t focus for more than 30 minutes on building a business, so you try to destroy others.
I’ve been at this a long time and I am always reviled by what I see in my industry and peers. Greed through gluttony does monstrous things to people. The incessant longing for fame and popularity by way of success is often taken the cheap, haphazard way, instead of the traditional road that is paved through industry and hard work.
You, Sir, are a lazy ham and egger, a no good charlatan and a detriment to your neighbors.
I am planting a flag here and declaring, with the highest level of confidence since the retarded 2011 crisis, these levels will hold and the market is going to rip faces off to the upside. Write it down and come here to mock me if I am wrong.
Gentlemen, I am not going by whims or depending on hunches, for that is exclusive for the canaille, men with finance blogs named after pretzels. This, my little friends from the internets, is precision through the science of mathematics. You cannot negotiate with it or even get mad at it. It is what it is, because it binds us to the earth and is the foundation of life.
We hold these levels and with exclamatory vigor. We will rip the heads off of our foes, and then reach down into their torso, and gut them.
You’ve been warned, you jelly belly mangled face fucking retard.
Last week I gave up hope for a large market decline based solely on the date on the calendar. Everything that provided me with confidence about being bearish still persisted, such as the incredibly large amount of stocks down 20%+ over the past 6 months compared to +20%. Depressed yields in the face of a seemingly strong economy and tightening Fed, also led me to be long TLT and utilities. When I sold them and opted for risk, I made a commitment. There is no retreating from that commitment now.
The last time The PPT missed an OVERSOLD signal was in August of 2013. The result was 14 days of agony, before a massive spike. Tomorrow will be day 8 of the malaise and I expect there will be more downside to come.
Today was a confirmation of my original thesis. Bubble stocks are being shattered to pieces, a la 2000. Utilities and TLT are safe havens and the street is wrought with fear. The culmination of these ingredients will lead to the ultimate tradable bottom, at which point you’ll be content with being halfway alive.
You should prepare yourselves for the complete and absolute annihilation of your asinine brokerage accounts. There will be no respite, or pause, only the black flag.
Having 50% of ones assets tied up in TLT, ETR and EXC would’ve been pleasant right about now, no? I blame Bill Gross for TLT’s underperformance last month, which was likely the result of PIMCO selling ahead of his departure. But the very essence of my thesis is playing out today, is it not? There is no need to sell short, when you have utilities up 3.5% for the day. In the past, during periods of excessive weakness, utilities have run 15-20% in a single month. Investors seek comfort through low beta dividends and that’s why I positioned this way for September.
But that’s all ancient history now, isn’t it? Instead of being in the bosom of safety, I am in a fucking hornets nest with my ass exposed to devilish insects. I’m long shit like PANW, EMES, BITA and 10 other lunatic stocks. I am embedded, mind you, in the thesis of a raging bull, ordinary maniac, a Ned Riley of sorts, awaiting dip buyers.
The market is off by two hundred. Yields are crashing lower. Utilities are soaring and I saw it all coming from 6 months away.
I sabataged myself and will now pay for my trespasses.
What sort of psychopath (Bridgewater) is on CNBC right now? This guy is talking about being ‘brutally honest’ with employees, when in fact we all know that is a fucking disastrous recipe for creating an environment filled with assholes. Humans are sensitive beings. Many need to be coddled and their egos pumped up, in order to operate effectively. By creating a work atmosphere of unchecked honesty, you invite assholes telling you in the morning that “your tie looks gay” or “you are looking a bit fat, hun, about the face and ass.”
Who needs that shit before coffee?
Frankly, I don’t get the idea of expressing ‘true feelings’ in the open. The workplace was invented for liars, for the benefit of hucksters, in order to promote inter-office back stabbing and betrayal. Thus far, since the industrial revolution, this policy of concealment and plotting has worked wonders for the US economy. Why mess with a winning formula?
Let the games begin.
Futures are gapping down and european markets suck. You are expected to fear the unknown, the black abyss that awaits you in October. There are black swans hiding everywhere, readying to ravage your brokerage accounts and break up your tenuous marriages. The ADP numbers were good. But that data is completely fictitious and is generated randomly, by rogue computers.
As of this moment, right now, I look forward to absorbing a few losses in order to liven up the place. We’ve had it good for too long and some of you need to be woken up.
Has there ever been a wall of worry this high, morbidly built upon the skulls of the ebola-stricken deceased? It has washed onto our shores, courtesy of some do-gooder who was likely trying to feed rice to small children in Liberia. The end result was he caught a deadly virus, and potentially killed numerous americans on the airplane he was traveling on– and in his small, stupid, town of Dallas.
Why isn’t there a fucking travel ban to west africa?
Now we have a reason to panic. We’ve all seen the zombie movies, apocalyptic endings that could only mean the complete destruction of the stock market. Aside from all of that, the dollar is strong, sending wheat and oil lower. Oh, how I pine for $4.50 gasoline and out of control corn prices.
This market will be served by obsequious traders, men prepared to buy dips and climb that skeleton’d wall of worry.
When was the last time buying oil above $100 worked? People always get the trade wrong, avoiding it at the lows and buying the highs.
These are the times of your lives, people. Embrace the never-ending story of extreme gluttony and unchecked hedonism. The occasional magnum of champagne and endless sea of shrimp cocktails will be funded by this market.
Be predatory and embrace the fear as cause to kill thy neighbors, weaponize your portfolios into blood seeking hounds, clamoring for bargains, opportunistic to the point of savagery.
My top picks are my top holdings. I reiterate EMES, BITA and PANW, with CLR a close fourth.
I don’t know what some of you are smoking because today sucked. 75% of stocks were lower, most aggressively. We just capped off the worst quarter for crude since 2012 and most of my stocks nailed me to a cross, with exception to my purchase of CYBR today. Boy is that stock nuts.
I had giant gains in EMES and BITA turn into mush, as momentum oriented stocks reversed and punished the faithful.
I do not walk away from this trading session, off by 1.1%, feeling good about myself. I walk away and spit at the ground behind me, wanting to forget it ever happened.
