This is going to come off more of a screed than a blog written by a reasonable man. I see this dog-faced man on my television, bragging, rather smugly, about his “70% T-bill position” and I want to kick him into an idle sewer hole. Now, following that horseshit, CNBC is interviewing the lunatic, Peter King, who wants to atom bomb Iran and Pakistan–yesterday.
The market is melting down for a variety of reasons.
1. The Russian ruble is crashing.
2. Oil is crashing.
3. Investor sentiment is plummeting.
Note: the third point is the most important. Stocks trade up and down based upon mood. The difference between a market trading 13x earnings and one at 18x is sentiment. If people have confidence, they buy. If not, you get this sort of nonsense.
Since entering the business in the late 90’s, I’ve had the pleasure of experiencing one calamity after the next. This one is a little unique, in that the crash in crude truly came out of left field. But now it’s here. What are the ramifications? Who owns the debt and instruments associated with oil wells? The wildcatters will run out of money first, then everyone else.
Sure, the drop in crude is very positive for your plumber and electrician. It’s bullish for grandma, but bearish for me.
The market demands clarity and hates unknown quantities. Until we know what the damage is, I suspect the market will continue to offer false rallies and crushing defeats. The only thing that I see positive for longs now is the predictability of this rout. When things get too easy for either bulls or bears, the trap door looms.
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I am trapped in an EEM trade….it has fallen off a cliff. There must be some respite at some point.
Jesus Christ. How do you get yourself into these jam-boxes?
Weren’t you just short?
is there ever a day you don;t lose money?
Iran is a dangerous, fanatic Islamofacist state trying to build a nuke. Fuck em.
Nuke it. Pave it. Put up a mall.
There has been a lot of talk about oil/commodities/metals going in the toilet.
I’d like to hear more about where the opportunities lie. What should be going up? Cars? Retailers? Infrastructure?
Any ideas?
Auto sales should benefit. A derivative play would be HAR, maker of premium speakers.
Detroit fixing to be the Paris of the west again, just like Obama intended.
lol
It sounds like it is time for a good, old fashioned WAR.
Micro Cap lottos (KEG, BAS, CRK) trading higher except for SN.
Me thinks da Bears get the plunger after mid week. Good luck
I’m tired of the Middle East. Phuk them. That part of the world serves no purpose – if oil is on the way out or if the West can produce what we need – then screw them. Fire up the B2’s and glass the whole god dammed place. The world will be better off for it.
I’ll know to get worried when you begin kicking people down the active sewers…
Twas a valiant 30 minute attempt by the oil bulls there.
Cappuccino is ready
We should bomb Pakistan– Did you see ‘Homeland’ last night!!?!??!
In public companies why don’t we
know who holds the debt and all
derivatives associated with it.
The debt could be resold many times. It doesn’t matter. The company owes the $ to the holder of the paper, which may not be the original lender. There is a market for such obligations.
I thought investor sentiment was supposed to be a contrarian indicator, no?
The bank rule should be “If Bank X loans the money, Bank X keeps the loan until it is paid off or defaults.”
No packaging or selling of mortgages.
From my observations about the oil companies, those with more debt on the books are the loosers. This isn’t any ingenious insight; hell it’s long term investing 101.
However, look at companies such as FANG and PDCE. They’ve shown some fight and resilience over the past week or two. Both of those companies have current ratios over 1.5, and less than 65% debt/equity. Unsurprisingly, these two are also two of the better hedged companies.
Now look at OAS. This is a company that I rode from $37-$38, up to $58, only to take a 20% loss. Yes, self admittedly this was horrible position management. However, this company was very attractive to me due to the EPS of 3.5 and P/E of 15 in an industry where they had almost twice the EPS of most peers that had P/E’s of 25. However, OAS has less than 1 current ratio and D/E of 200%. Same logic goes for TPLM, though a small cap.
I’m slowly building positions in FANG and PDCE; less debt and hedged.
losing a grand+ a day for two straight weeks now this is bullshit!
and only made a hand full of trades
handful ( what pisses me off the most is Fly will not allow a away to fix spelling/typing errors)
The Santa Claus rally will only allow me to “maybe” break even. That’s all it ever does. That is assuming we get one
Insider Trading has been declared pretty much legal.
http://moneymorning.com/2014/12/15/a-u-s-court-practically-declared-insider-trading-legal/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+moneymorning%2FjOLe+%28Money+Morning%29
Poor Martha “ScapeGoat” Stewart
I blame Putin!