The energy reflation trade is underway. I have no idea if it will stick by tomorrow. But I do know this: we aren’t selling off these gains today. The breadth is phenomenal and the percentage gains outrageous.
Leading the way are frac sand companies EMES, SLCA, HCLP and FMSA. I already own SLCA; but I decided to also start a position in FMSA today. They just came public and it could not have happened at a worse time. There wasn’t any institutional support to defend its shares from the brutal downtick. As a result, it fell flat from $17 to $10. Over the past week alone it is down 30%. I am sure analyst coverage will come out with higher price targets and if the oil patch dead-cat bounces, it’s good for $15.
Dividend rich pipeline stocks are also moving today, with the sector up more than 4.5%. Like frac sand, I like a lot of pipeline plays–too many to mention in passing.
Rails are recovering, especially since they move the crude around. My favorites are GBX and TRN. TRN is my largest holding.
And, finally, small cap oil are moving fastest. Stocks like EOX, WRES, REXX and BAS are embracing the lift.
If you like oil here, buy up whatever dropped the most over the past month. It’s that simple. The initial move is always knee-jerk and has little to do with fundamentals. If you’re cautious, take this bounce and run with the money. I suspect this trade will either be the biggest and best trade of 2014, or it will succumb to the black hole that was encapsulating it over the past month. One way or another, it’s gonna be fun to watch.
NOTE: Alternative energy and solar stocks are an even nuttier way to play it. Names like SOL, CSIQ, PEIX and GPRE will move faster than your average independent oil and gas stocks.
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hhhmmmmmm……. gweilo…
lol is that cantonese for white devil?
Toss in TPLM for one of the small caps… For the foreseeable future, let oil be the guide in this market. I’m not saying anything profound or incredibly brilliant, but any sort of GPS in any market is useful.
CHK is the new NFLX.
NFLX is the new CHK.
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… DOW, NAZ & SPX have ALL gone red !!!
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“Let The Face Ripping Begin” !!!
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I have many trader friends at the GPRE. It’s pretty crazy that “trading” here in Nebraska usually means buying physical commodities and trading railcars full of corn. I had to look up what “basis” even meant. They look at guys that trade stocks, options and futures like they are rockstars.
That would make Fly Metallica of Nebraska.
ENPH trades with the solars.
I like WTI.
Daniel Plainview sez:
If I own some stocks, and YOU own some stocks and you lose aaaaaaaaall your money, I TAKE YOUR STOCKS.
Good Common Core question.
DRAINAGE!!
Fly? Get your act together sir!
http://www.thesmokinggun.com/buster/burrito/accused-burrito-batterer-busted-890673
Please stay up another 21 minutes small caps!
TSLA looks like it’s bouncing down from its horrible trend line from Oct 9 but prob mad wrong and it will go beastmode tomorrow or something. Not betting the farm. I’ll bet the farm on PCLN earnings Nov 5 if we’re still downtrendy next week.
Oil men have been around since the beginning of time, sitting around and burning gloopy piles of oil.
Here’s to it continuing evermore.
It was oil that got J.R. Ewing into trouble.
own chk, slb, and courtesy of Raul gnrc..SLB er may push me further into other names depending on outcome
Sorry. I was away from my desk. I loat some nice gains today and expect more tomorrow. Not sweating it.
PAY ATTENTION NEXT TIME OR I’LL THROW A BURRITO AT YOU!
What about WNR? I loved those jokes.
There is NO joking about ED.
What a boring day. Zzzzzzz…
frack this, frack that, frack everything.
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… Bull Logo back on the Front Page !
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I have no control over the logo. Computer generated algorithms take over part of the site, every so often.
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😉
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Nothing but bulltards on the teevee. Over a fucking search engine that burns money on nerd bullshit.
Another big down day tomorrow. Be ready.
Tomorrow I dine on your liver.
Ok bears, I challenge you (Van damm voice)
List 5 reasons why the market should trade down another 10% from here.
Go.
1) Shmita.
2) See #1
In truth though, there are several reasons we continue to go down the murder hole.
1) Fed is in the penalty box. They have said they would end QE, and there are bigger reasons than simply a tighter labor market.
2) NIRP in Europe and Japan. That can’t last, sorry! Thus the end of the carry trade that has been a boon to banks for years.
3) Ebola
4) As Chess has famously said, “The market has not had a test of the 200 Day MA since 2012” And another famous quote from him, “From large tops come large drops.” – Now that the 200 DMA has been breached, we go down faster and more. Even after all of the carnage over the last month, this market is still in the stratosphere.
5) Margin calls. Was higher than ever as graphed in this link: http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/charts/markets/nyse-margin-debt.html?NYSE-margin-debt-SPX-since-1995.gif
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1) It’s October … and well … It’s October !
2) Tomorrow is Friday (and It’s October) !
3) Sunday is the anniversary of the ’87 … 508 point drop !
4) Ebola related shit !
5) ISIS related shit !
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… I’ll spare you the Technical Analysis !!!
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SHORTER THAN VERNE TROYER !!!
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I’m long / short (no bias): cash is my biggest position. both cases for the hell of it:
Bullish case:
1) Obama is office (he is running out of xanax. market can’t crash)
2) The FED will defend this market in short term.
3) The Russell is leading.
4) Oil bounced (this needs to continue)
5) We are still in a secular bull market until proven otherwise.
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bearish case:
1) oil is being crashed by an entiry with deep pockets (fuckin saudi’s)
2)The dollar is relentless (however the correlation coeffieicnt is 0.01- aka no relationship over LT-however this makes US exports more expensive relative to rest of the world.
3) bonds getting bid up (maybe not today)
4) The world economy (Europe) is garbagio
5) QE is ending (thus liquidity is leaving the market (we will see if Janet has the balls to end it)
6) Ebola.
7) The 100 and 200 day SPX moving averages have rolled over.
8) Only 14% of the SP 500 stocks are above their 50-day.
9) They couldn’t even make today a BIG upside reversal.
a bid for SD. maybe?
CLR UCO if KWK could get unfucked
I can’t imagine this oil shakeup could be longterm
They have kept crude above 90-91 for so long
BTW, Fly i am about to sign up for 12631 (already with that slugger OA). is there a way i could get all 3 services in one package? PPT too. I’m not complaining about the prices, i think it’s a steal. just curious before I pay. thx
Only for annual subs. If you want to upgrade to annual, email customer service and we will give you a deal.
sounds good, thanks. will do.
I wonder if anyone has told Granny Y the market has been a bit wobbly lately?
Hmm Caldaro thinks we might rally into November. That would be a perfect setup for PCLN shortage. 😀
Fly, what’s your opinion on SN, Sanches Energy? Also, do you still have some EMES? Thanks.
I’m oily!
Not that you need any advise, but remember you wanted to trade ETFs… FRAK
Spoos and CL both climbing. The market is looking healthier.
Normalcy Bias is. So. Funny