iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,409 Blog Posts

My Deep Market Thoughts

This is a big deal. CALPERS is removing themselves from the cesspool that is the hedge fund world, which represents about $4 billion. What’s worse is that this could become a trend for pensions around the country, which in turn may lead to forced liquidations–further jarring markets. But even if stocks soften a bit here, there are plenty of go-to names to devour on the cheap.

Look towards GILD (I am long), trading 11x eps, on pace to generate over $15 billion in free cash flow next year. This is a company that may begin to aggressively buy back its own shares or increase its dividend.  By the way, they cured hep c.

Two biotechs worth buying on dips are ACHN and ARWR. ACHN has a cheaper hep c drug than GILD’s and the data has been impressive. ARWR  (I am long) is working on a hep b cure and is a possible buyout candidate. Other biotechs that I will buy on dips include JAZZ (I am long), XON, GEVA, ALNY and SGEN (I am long).

Let’s not forget about the oil boom in the Bakken and Permian Basin. I like fracking sand companies SLCA (I am long), EMES and HCLP. And exploration companies FANG, OAS and CLR.

Lastly, there is the tech arm to this market. Web 2.0 is the only way to play it. However, valuations are stretched and if we get a decent pullback, you might lose your scalps with these names. Nevertheless, YELP (I am long),  AAPL (I am long), TRIP and TWTR are must owns–long term. Other high tech names that peak my interest are MBLY, GPRO, PANW (I am long), QIHU, YY and  N (I am long).

As an aside, if Shake Shack ever comes public, I will make it my largest position and probably never sell it.

Until then, my trading positions are heavily biased towards utilities and treasuries. I am also excited about my IFON position catching a second wind.

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35 comments

  1. tradercaddy

    I have been to the Shake Shack in NYC (Madison Square) several times over the years and always found it to be pretty good.
    They just opened a Shake Shack a few miles from here in Orlando area but there are so many of these “upscale burger” Shake Shack knockoffs now that something is going to give.

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    • Dr. Fly

      Shake Shack represents a genre that I am super bullish on, which is rebellious newcomers snatching share from old, lazy and disgusting legacy burger joints MCD and BKW.

      Shake Shack and other high quality fast food joints, like CMG, BWLD and PNRA, are like AAPL to HPQ or the music industry 10 years ago. They can grab so much share.

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      • DaJuice

        Shake Shack is legit; go there every time I’m in NYC. The Atlanta location is opening next week and I’m stoked. Their other higher end restaurants aren’t bad either.

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        • Tiran

          It affects me beacsue the electric wheelchair is 300 lbs and it can only enter a van large enough for it with a RAMP, therefore, since I have limited use of my arms and almost no use of my hands, I am stranded since my van has no place to be parked, and the push wheelchair fits in the vehicle parked in my contracted parking space that they have told me is no longer mine, that I must have that little car parked outside though the car and the parking space are clearly typed into the signed lease.

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    • k_melancon

      I can only go to Shack Shack a few times per year, otherwise the something that will give is the chair beneath my shake-shacked ass

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      • Dr. Fly

        Hit the gym and it won’t be a problem.

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        • Satoki

          The oil sands are going ahead whether Obama or America cares one way or the other.The brkoer America gets, the deeper Obama digs your nation into a pending fiscal disaster, the greater the need for petroleum products in America, the more the development in the Oil Sands will happen.Here’s a clue about the future of the Canadian Oil Sands . . . the current are being developed in Alberta is the small area. The big regions are in Saskatchewan and they are just starting to get going there.By the time they develop they big areas all this carbon pricing global warming thingy IPCC wealth redistribution nonsense will be as obsolete and past tense as the Club of Rome nonsense and the Population Bomb nonsense.Its over now, the corpse is still twitching and some people think it can be revived.

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      • OG

        First burger joint that I’ve seen do a street wear collaboration.

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  2. matt_bear

    luxury fast food burgers are the self-serve yogurt/ice cream shops from 3-4 years ago. They’re popping up everywhere.

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  3. Alec

    Shake Shack is a tourist trap. If anyone wants some kick ass burgers head to 5 napkin burger in hells kitchen

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  4. charlie

    Fly, deep thoughts on HE? Green energy focused utility company operating BlueStar’s neck of the jungle.

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  5. boyaj

    GILD, HCLP, and OAS are three of my top five holdings, and added moar of the first two at the open today. What your thoughts on taking a flyer on CLDX? Always appreciate the insight.

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  6. Jesse Livermore's Ghost
    Jesse Livermore's Ghost

    Going long QQQ calls today. SPX and NDX higher 6-12 months from now. Book it.

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  7. dfasd

    buy NUGT and Uranium. Short fadish, overpriced trendo fast food restaurants

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  8. OG

    MIght actually need to exit GPRO now.

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  9. Jesse Livermore's Ghost
    Jesse Livermore's Ghost

    Mkt is rocketing off SPX 1980.

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  10. Forgetalpha

    Fly….not sure the CalPERS news is really that big of a game changer. CalPERS is a $300b fund, so they are exiting $4b of HF investments, or 1.3% of AUM. They felt that they couldn’t scale their HF holdings relative to their total asset size.

    Most pension funds aren’t nearly as large as CalPERs, so most pensions don’t have to be concerned with scale issues.

    From the CalPERs release…

    “We are always examining the portfolio to ensure that we are efficiently and cost-effectively achieving our risk-adjusted return goals,” said Ted Eliopoulos, CalPERS Interim Chief Investment Officer. “Hedge funds are certainly a viable strategy for some, but at the end of the day, when judged against their complexity, cost, and the lack of ability to scale at CalPERS’ size, the ARS program is no longer warranted.”

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  11. Biggranddaddy

    Been Long- Berkshire ,Apple,Disney ( will get 100) tesla,info sonics

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  12. figesmalls

    Fly – what are your thoughts on the VHC (partial) loss to AAPL….I’m sure you are glad you are out – but is there hope in this company?

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  13. budh

    A DQ in my town has half priced shakes from 2-4 everyday. I often find myself in that part of town during the afternoon.

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  14. budh

    If Calpers pulls out of hedge funds does that mean they pull out of the market of stocks? I think not, they will just find a cheaper way to buy and hold their own shit.

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  15. j livermore

    $IFON. FLY IS GOD!!! “Alright, I’ll play the part.” 80k shares from 2.25 here. Thank you Le Fly!!!!!!

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  16. wolfdaddy

    have any of you fatsos ever been to 5 guys? that’s the IPO I am waiting for

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  17. j livermore

    Like the distinguished gentleman I am thanks to my training at the IBC school of the gentlemen’s fine life, I am banking coin in the lobby of the JW Marriott in Chicago IL while I await an important meeting. $IFON

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