iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,408 Blog Posts

You Try to Figure This Out

Another up day, yet all of the high growth names are diverging again. They’re off their lows and people are buying them again; but you can’t trust a stock that opens down 8% on no news and expect to make money in it. The earnings are coming in better than expected, and selling off for it.

Edgeless market. Downdraft is coming.

But I think May can be constructive, even though seasonality is working against us. In 2012, the NASDAQ dropped 7% in May.

Back in 2000, at the beginning of the dot com rollover, the NASDAQ dropped by more than 25% from April through May. It bounced 12% in June, dropped another 4% in July, then peaked out +13% in August before falling in earnest. If these new tech stocks are going to follow a similar pattern, they will rally hard in May, base out in June, rally again in July, then collapse in August.

Don’t play the earnings. There’s too much reality in that trade. Buy the fantasy, the cow eyed hype and great expectations, the narrative set by stupid brokerage firm analysts, then sell into it.

 

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65 comments

  1. J Livermore

    First !!

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  2. drake sucks

    FLY, emerging markets, watch em, EDC from here is your vehicle of choice.

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  3. HalfBloodPope

    Riding CVS and JAZZ through earnings.

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  4. I Am Jesse Livermore

    Excellent choice in music Fly. More electronic music.

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  5. Mr. President

    YELP beat and raised outlook, so naturally it’s getting hammered in AH

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  6. Mr. President

    New avi is super fly

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  7. Db6strings

    Great pic. You know Cocosa?

    Wait for the bottom and the base and the confirmation. 5 day Qs on OS makes sense here. May see some counter rotation attempts as the Dow hits highs despite grandma Yellen

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  8. Flanki

    YELP #’s out.

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  9. Mr.Partrdge

    yelp just yelped all of the shorts … like a Russian tank

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  10. I Am Jesse Livermore

    long QQQ calls as of today. if it can break and hold above $88.43 (then 89.68) that is bullish. it already put in a higher low on 4/28. IBB also put in a higher low on 4/28. if it can break and hold $235.48 and $245.42 then very bullish for QQQ.

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  11. Trading_Nymph

    When AAPL reported I said it was silly for it to go and hit 600 again.But it did, hitting 599 today. I have said since 2010, we need AAPL to roll. IMHO 600 is IT for AAPL, nothing above that it in my Fibo world. It topped. Now maybe I can have my massive sell off. Funny, it looks like my 1755ish is going to be the neck in a H and S pattern.

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    • I Am Jesse Livermore

      I’m a fib guy too. QQQ retraced 61.8 of recent correction on 4/24 and put in a higher low on 4/28. correction will be over if we put in a higher high.

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    • Larry

      AAPL is going to go to all time highs.

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    • Freebird

      Ish.. Ish.. ish.. you have been wrong ish… for so long ish.. it make you worthless.. ish..

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    • Freebird

      Hey.. put an “s” in front of your “ish” and you almost get “shit” basically what your calls have been for many years ish.

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    • Freebird

      Here is an idea.. put a noose around your neck.. stoopid piece of shit ish!

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  12. I Am Jesse Livermore

    YELP now above $60 AH. bullish for QQQ

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  13. dubz

    Great video.

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  14. NEGRODAMU$

    True detective is just terrible

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  15. ironbird

    How fucking retarded are we all supposed to be? There must be a manual out there.

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  16. maximus

    good song man

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  17. bonobo smores

    great music
    long PBA and HCLP

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  18. bushwacker2

    Retarded market where only old man stocks doing well. Sitting this one out for now.

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    • bushwacker2

      ….not that there’s anything wrong with making money in old man stocks…it’s just boring, like watching paint dry.

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      • ironbird

        It is more retarded than that. The problem with a bipolar tape is that it is bipolar.

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  19. Ah

    Long yelp after hours and loving it

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  20. NEGRODAMU$

    Old school track, nice to see that your music interests are diversified.

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  21. 8BALL

    cool tunes and vid you may like Chromatics tick of the clock…

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  22. Mr.Partridge

    IMF loans billions of Western tax payers $$ to pay Russia for natural gas .. Gasprom is pretty much Putin’s baby lmao what a bunch of morons playing politics…. interesting world we live in

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  23. Dortmunder

    I am playing Hoppertunity to win the Derby. I will play exacta boxes with the fave California Chrome and longshot Medal Count.

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  24. Freebird

    fuck you and the horse you rode in on.. fly died like a pleb

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  25. Freebird

    My 14 year old son beat the fly by 14 percent so far this year! Keep suckin his dick!!

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  26. Freebird

    Hears an idea… whenever the fly sees a post with a female name.. he tries to suck their pussy.. believing that the poster is really a female.. guess what.. he is sucking dick.. much like his picks this year..lol

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  27. Freebird

    fly never gets retweeted on twtr.. they all think he is toxic junk… he even went begging up to Cramers joint when he got the shit scared out of him last week .. looking for Cramer to bless him some how..

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  28. Freebird

    Now he is Cramers lap dog.. Hey.. dogs die in the gutter..

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    • LVS666

      The fuck is this guys problem ^
      Sir, you live a very sad, sad life. I wish you the worst, and I hope that everything bad in the world happens to you, and only you. Good for your son, he’s probably smarter than you. Maybe he will even turn out ok despite having a horrible father.

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      • Cascadian

        Oh, I think he’s (perhaps a she) super-cool! Best part of this blog.

        It’s amazing that in this day and age when you can be anything you want to be on the internets– so many choose to be idiots.

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      • The Fly

        LOL @ THE MENTALLY ILL.

        Fuck you crazy types. I hope you get shoved into an asylum.

        Anyone reading this guy knows, without a shadow of a doubt, he is in desperate need of psychiatric care.

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    • Dortmunder

      Well birdbrain, you seem to have real issues that might require a stay in the state hospital. Get well soon.

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  29. Donkey

    nice numbers from PFPT, see if it gives back it’s AH gains tomorrow…

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  30. Jennifer

    what do you guys think of CAJ, PC, SNE here? looking at some bigger caps in Japan.

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  31. Cascadian

    Every day is a day of trying to figure it out.

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    • alf44

      .
      … it takes a “Beautiful Mind” to trade this “Market” !

      Or else, a “High Freq Trading Algorithm” !!!

      —–

      The “Stock Market” … has become a FUCKIN’ JOKE !!!

      It is a rigged, corrupt, manipulated SCAM !!! IMO

      .

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      • alf44

        .

        A COMPLETE FUCKIN’ SCAM !!! IMO

        .

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        • alf44

          .

          … just BUY 10 Shares of BRK/A … go have a DOZEN Gin and Tonics … STFU !!!

          Do a “Rip Van Winkle” …

          SLEEP for 25 years …

          Wake Up Rich !!!

          —–

          Seriously !!!!

          .

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  32. Uglyflint

    What happened Alf. You seem a little down today.

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    • alf44

      .

      … well, I DID git stung by a wasp today !!!

      Right on my right index finger !

      I smashed that lil bastard with a vengeance !!!
      —–

      Beyond that … THIS MARKET CAN KISS MY ASS !!!

      .

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      • Uglyflint

        You see that golfer last week ? He had to jump in the lake to escape a swarm of hornets. Mother f ‘ers damn near took him out !

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  33. alf44

    .

    … I guess I was lucky in that it was just a “lone stranger” !!!

    That lil SOB nailed me good though !!!

    .

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