Today’s GDP numbers is a giant egg cracked onto the olde face of Janet Yellen. The whole premise behind her tapering ideas is based upon economic recovery. Maybe it was the snow. Maybe it was a “one off event.” Whatever the reason, this economy isn’t growing.
I am not advocating to continue QE for the sake of QE–quite the contrary. I couldn’t care less about QE; but I care a great deal about my business and QE equals higher stock prices. QE reduces the volatility. It turns the stock market into a god damned ATM machine. Whoever doesn’t like QE is simply bitter and too stubborn to enjoy a good thing. Needless to say, Grandma Yellen will have to reevaluate her position on tapering and ignore any person who might reside in the stupid state of Missouri.
Twitter is a catastrophe. I don’t even have an opinion on it any longer.
I am itching to get back into the markets, anxious to make up lost ground. Without a doubt, this isn’t the time to reenter the market, following some BIG ASS LOSSES. My plan is to play the market via ETF and snatch back 10% before entertaining individual stocks again. If I had a “sure thing” or “high conviction” play, I would take it. But I don’t and I still need a little time to better understand this market.
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Fly,
I know you hate advice, but I reckon European stocks are heading higher as the ECB will finally come around to some QE.
Agreed. I like VGK, very bullish if Draghi does QE. Plus it sports a 3.85% divvy.
le fly,
easiest way to make a clean 10% is simply short SLV. should break down through the lows in the next month or so which should give a 10% move from current levels.
If you think THAT is a great idea, short AGQ.
Maybe Janet un-tapers the taper today and we make new highs via dow components.
Remember when the Missouri Governor sued the Attorney General to not get Mr. Wygan to talk on record about cigarettes being delivery devices for nicotine. Yeah, those were progressive times.
The good olde days. When a buck was still silver and the joint a bad place to be.
Here’s what I think about Twitter. Once it drops to a certain point it’s a no-brainer for a mid-to-long-term hold. This is not based on any algorithm but based on the fact that as a communication medium, Twitter is too ingrained into society to fall off the map. Unless they change something drastically, it’s going to be around for a long time and will (however slowly) grow its user base.
You don’t see sports commentators’ and news anchors Facebook URLs next to their name on national TV. You don’t see Google+ hashtags behind the batters’ box during ballgames and in the lower corner of the screen during the Grammys. Twitter is too ingrained.
TWTR is great, it’s a universal real-time news platform. 6 months ago the stock would have jumped 20 points on those earnings.
I like Twitter too. But the valuation is still bananas.
Fucking VCs
All of these tech leaders have been pumped to the moon…
lots of financial ppl like TWTR b/c so many in the industry use it, but it’s not catching on w/the general public. beware of having bias b/c you use it. it needs to show MAU growth or valuation is still way too high.
not sure what that means or the stock price but your point is very well made
aapl is a sure thing.
Hi Fly,
Quick question on PPT. I noticed you added Fair Value PE (via Eddy Elfenbein).
Does that refer to the PE you would need to see to get fair value based on his little formula? (http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2014/04/results-on-my-worlds-simplest-stock-valuation-measure.html)
Seems like a cool addition but just wanted to confirm.
Thanks,
J
Jworthy
Yes, but I am having it removed today because it doesn’t appear to be accurate. I might add it back after we figure out why it’s not working.
Great. Thanks!
just a thought,….
bernak was the bull master,
is yellen the sacrificial lamb ?
whats your take on OA and EXK Professor Fly ?
Silver has been good. No opinion though
Wolf, you are wise! YES!!.. Yellen is of course the sacrificial lamb. That has ALWAYS been the plan.
No idea why I can’t bring myself to sell YELP. Just horrible…
.
… what’s your entry price (if you don’t mind) ?
.
Yelp earnings tonight
Fly what are your thoughts on SALE into earnings?
Earnings aren’t helping. I’d ditch it
I don’t own it but was thinking about a possible buy ahead of earnings. I guess I won’t. Thank you for the reply.
Look at past 5 years: May – June can be frustrating.
May – June are MUST WAIT FOR OVERSOLD READING.
Do not jump in early.
Fly, r u still holding the 2 unglamorous names, EPZW and IFON? Both taken to wood shed today. I am holding the bag, albeit small positions.
Sold ezpw a long time ago. I stated that here.
I still own ifon and do not intend on selling it
Thanks. I’d thought pawn shops would remain fashionable if the economy continue to head south.
I still believe in ezpw. They are working through rough patch. It’s all dependent on gold prices
Ifon volume really picking up..I am holding on your coat-tails
.
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK/A &. BRK/B) makin’ NEW all time HIGHS …
AGAIN !!!
.
Wait for the jobs report friday…it will all be settled then.
Friday comes out with better jobs numbers?
We’re crispy critters
Playing the market via ETF is unfun.
Get your glove and go play shortstop for christsake, we’re all walking around in circles over hea.
It was the weather, we are talking about January and February weather completely shutting down half of the country. Again, the economy is roaring, right now, in real time. Durables are flying, transports are flying. These are early indicators.
No-earnings tech plays = Wheel Of Fortune machine at your local Native American casino.
She never had the bull 🙂 BB had it all ..
Indian market dumping, catching up to China
Holding $YELP through earnings here with a $58 basis. Part of me thinks I’m being a stubborn fool and this thing could easily see $40.
I sold half of my position. If it goes down I will rebuy. Earnings have been scary lately.
Yellen just sold us down the river
” Beginning in May, the Committee will add to its holdings of agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $20 billion per month rather than $25 billion per month, and will add to its holdings of longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $25 billion per month rather than $30 billion per month. “
This market is DONE!! We have been set up. Time to switch gears and take off the party hats. YELLEN is the fall guy!! She took the position knowing she will fall on the sword.
Senior Muppet is very carefully long. How can you pass up that set up on the $IWM. I looks like a ketch to me Sloop.
You know I don’t like the QE ATM machine at all. But it is interesting how they will get out of this mess/bubble that they created. BoJ did nothing last night too. IMHO ECB next week, even with the weaker CPI, won’t do nothing either. China is going into May Day Holiday, they like to ANNOUNCE things during their Vaca, I would watch for that. IMHO so much of their Shadow Banking problem is all QE hot money..
Again the actual data
exp/imp deficits, housing slumps, pmi
Again bears original argument
qe canNOT solve structural deflation
– Brought to you by the number .1
No one here wants to structural issues fixed. We want free money so we can exploit them.
You don’t trade the market you want, you trade the market you have. SPX is going sideways after a HUGE runup – in my eyes that is bullish. Correcting in time, not in price. Basing instead or correcting hard after a big run is bullish not bearish.
Neither wanting or not-wanting a market.
Data CONTINUES to be reaffirming to bears. 3/4/5 years of QE with falling results is our THESIS
(I do realize this is a trading blog, Doesn’t mean every thought is insinuating buy or sell)