I cannot stress the importance of this week. From economic data to a slew of important earnings announcements, I think it’s fair to say the fate of this market will be decided over the next 5 days.
To put it plainly, all of the carnage that has taken place in growth stocks is not significant, based upon historical precedence. In a previous post, I showed you this has happened in consecutive month’s several times before in leadership tech stocks. The thing is, April isn’t done. If tech rebounds from here and all of the month to date losses are erased, last month’s drop will be viewed as child’s play, entirely insignificant in the big scheme of things. Stocks will head back to new highs, amidst renewed euphoria and you will all ponder why you didn’t buy FEYE in the $40’s when you had the chance.
However, if this newly found perception of risk continues to plague the markets, month to date losses might triple from here. Last month’s losses were so severe, it demands that this month we either accelerate to that downside of completely wipe it out. This is not opinion, but fact.
Resolution will be had and soon.
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Flipped back to short Friday PM (SFK SDS) . Mental stops over 1875 on SPX, 22.15 on XLF. I just cant think we V-Shape rally after every breakdown. Just being objective.
*SKF
No one ever believe in V shapes, EVER, until they happen.
But ask yourself, when have we not V-shaped?
Summer 2011, and on a lesser note Summer 2012. Its been awhile. Just seems like everyone now has been programmed to BTFD that its gonna hurt when it drops.
I’m no perma-bear or anything, these particular trades are made looking for a pullback to test the recent lows (1815, 21.15 respectively).
“and all of the month to date losses are erased”…hmmm. In some accounts, that might have to be quite a rebound.
MTD, not for last month.
so, for example, SPLK was down 25% last month and another 8% this month. Lots of stocks are down about 10% for April. It’s not unreasonable to presume that 10% might be made back.
Perfect pic. Silver may hold the key. If Sterling dies at the blade of Bill the Butcher? The cocaine has run low.
We need more coke.
Tech seems to do its own thing without affecting the rest of the market too much.
I am waiting when some combination of tapering the easing, interest rates, unemployment or something else triggers the Big One.
I have been ready for years (unfortunately).
Get long the real coke, cocoa that is
How about fear? The clock is ticking on the vol shorts. JO was an epic crowded trade blow up. The coffee shorts got annihilated.
JO was in a depression, until it wasn’t.
Indeed. Timing is everything.
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Insider Trading Relationship Date Transaction Cost #Shares Value ($) #Shares Total SEC Form 4
EBERSMAN DAVID A Chief Financial Officer Apr 16 Sale 59.81 11,700 699,777 330,703 Apr 17 06:02 PM
Athwal Jas Chief Accounting Officer Apr 15 Sale 59.29 1,947 115,438 132,404 Apr 17 05:58 PM
EBERSMAN DAVID A Chief Financial Officer Apr 15 Sale 59.08 70,414 4,160,398 342,403 Apr 17 06:02 PM
Sandberg Sheryl Chief Operating Officer Apr 15 Sale 59.08 39,112 2,310,558 8,984,894 Apr 17 06:04 PM
Schroepfer Michael Todd Chief Technology Officer Apr 15 Sale 59.15 41,075 2,429,449 238,519 Apr 17 06:0
It is important. I’m banking on in a good way to pave way for Alibaba’s IPO and WB might get some of that windfall.
No one knows the market’s rallying until it’s at new highs.