Revisiting “The Holy Grail”

A few weeks ago I discussed the merits of N and how the stock was a good representative of the current cloud/bubble/undervalued growth situation. It is my belief that N is a true tell for the market and I highlighted how it might be due for an oversold bounce. Only once in its history has the stock done what it’s doing now, and that was August-September of 2011 when the stock dropped more than 30%.

Thus far, since March, N’s losses are now nearing 30%, which puts it firmly into the retardo to the downside oversold area.

It’s worth noting, September of 2011 was the bottom for N, as it soared by 40% in October. No one wanted to buy stocks in September of 2011, even me. The chartists were out and about, betting against stocks due to technical factors, merrily banking coin along the way–until magic happened.

This market runs on magic. It’s the missing component in everyone’s models. It’s not tangible, as you can’t see it or hear it. It cannot be quantified.

In summary, I hate myself, stocks, the business, money, the teevee–everything but the blog, which has proven to be very therapeutic during this “process.” But it’s important to take a step back and look at what’s happening and put it into prospective, historically. Even if this is the big olde dumbass top, it shouldn’t happen overnight. The initial decline has been accomplished, at least in the leadership stocks. Mass carnage has been imposed onto guys like me, other managers of money, and people who are generally bullish on growth. According to the stock market handbook, THERE SHOULD BE A GOD DAMNED PERIOD OF RESPITE, WHEN ONE MIGHT BE PERMITTED TO DRINK A CUP OF EARL GREY TEA (a little milk and dash of honey) WITHOUT BEING RUDELY INTERRUPTED BY LIFE THREATENING MONETARY SETBACKS.