Fighting My Inner Pessimism

I am sitting here in awe of the decline in my portfolio and asking myself (literally talking to myself) “why am I still in these stocks?”

Pardon the negative tone that is about to embrace this blog, but this is exactly how I felt in 2000, when the market collapsed–HEADLONG–speared by tech stocks. But even then, during the very worst period in stock market history, stocks went up for month’s at a time. This rout is unique in its “elevator pattern”, whereby all of the gains from last year are stricken from the record within weeks.

Looking at my four horsemen of financial misery (SPLK, YELP, FEYE, WDAY), you’d think all of them missed earnings today. You’d look at these stocks and say “HOLY COW, they’ must’ve guided down for the next decade.” Sadly, it’s just another day at the office.

I realize that my pessimism, which is my natural state, is something that can be deemed to be “a contrary indicator of grande capitulation.” However, you’d be remiss to start buying stocks now, as I’ve dedicated my life (my actual life) on seeing this through. I don’t know why I’ve been so stubborn, as to risk everything for something so small. But it just doesn’t make sense to me.

All of the IPOs coming out make me sick and also feeds into my inner-bear, one that believes this is a sign of panic, on the part of private equity and investment banks. They are throwing too many new issues on the table, in too short a time frame, which leads me to believe they are keen on the market going lower.

Playing devil’s advocate here, there is really nothing to hang your hat on. The price/sales ratios are still high, after 40% drops. Nothing is baked in and I am not really in the mood to go through a tortuous earnings season, following this rout.