I just got done reading some of my posts from Sept-Oct of 2011, just to see where my head was at. If you recall, that was the Euro-crisis era, when the markets were collapsing and Zerohedge was feeling his oats. I lost a considerable amount of money during that correction, broadsided by WNR dropping from $17-11. I believe it was a 30% weighted position.
Some of the things I learned when reading those blogs is this:
I was and I guess still am an arrogant prick. I can’t believe the sort of behavior demonstrated in those missives. I promise you, The Real Fly isn’t nearly as obtuse and obnoxious in real life. Something happens to me when I get behind the keyboard. I transform into a demon and a stream of consciousness spills onto the internets. I can write a 1,000 word blog in under 5 minutes. I never edit them and rarely think twice about what I write. That’s why, every so often, a complete jackass appears on the site before you.
Secondly, after getting smashed about in longs, I restructured around WNR and GSVC (protect the head strategy) and opened a series of short positions, as well as raising a large cash position. That’s exactly what I might do here, but only after a bounce.
I love me some four horsemen of financial death (WDAY, SPLK, FEYE and YELP); however, I am in this game to win and my losses of 23% is clearly a steep wall to climb. Keep in mind, total drawdown over the past month stands at around 37%, patently absurd.
The only way I get back in this game is to trade with agility, do it perfectly, and hopefully get lucky. Luck certainly plays a role when investing. It’s important to put yourself in a position to get lucky, however.
Futures are exactly flat, which probably means a catastrophic opening on the opening tick.