iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
19,617 Blog Posts

A Case Study of the Dot Com Crash

Since everyone is talking about it, comparing this environment to that of 2000, I though it’d be useful to actually see how the dot com bubble progressed in a stock that embodied the good and the bad of that era, a relic from the past: SCMR.

The market topped in March of 2000 (eery) and the losses mounted good and fast.

Here is the price action from March on.

March 6th, 2000: $170 (looks sweet, new highs)
March 27th: $120 (buy the dip?)
April 3rd: $78.5 (got to buy it now, yes?)
April 10th: $48.94 (this is just ridiculous)
April 17th: $64.56 (that’s better)
April 24th: $78.50 (the bull is back)
May 1st: $86 (kill the bears)
May 30th: $90 (get some)
June 17th: $138 (c’mon, son)
August 14th: $167.19 (buying a new house and lambo, cuz I bought the dip)
August 30th: $142 (no biggie. A little profit taking)
Sept 11: $105 (was that a double top?)
Sept 18th: $117 (here we go again. Back to new highs?)
Sept 25th: $105 (maybe not)
Oct 2nd: $78 (that was a double top)
Oct 16th: $85 (we’re bouncing here)
Nov 6th: $59 (maybe we’ll retest the lows then bounce. Crazy tape)
Dec 4th: $64 (holding steady. I like the consolidation)
Dec 18th: $35 (taking out new lows, the bottom dropped out)
Jan 2nd, 2001: $33 (new year, fresh start)
Jan 16th: $50 (atta boy)
Jan 29th: $29 (more of the same. This market sucks)
Feb 20th: $20 (where is this thing going, zero?)
March 5th: $14 (wow, what a value!)
March 26th: $10 (I can’t believe this stock was $170 last year)
April 2nd: $7 (ruinous. That was the bubble)

If you go through each price point, you can see how it’s easy to get caught up in a bubble and not even know it’s happening. Hope mixed with the surreal, combined with greed, makes for a dangerous combo.

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114 comments

  1. Luke Attmadik

    I’m buying like its April 10th, 2000!

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  2. Chrismark

    Might be witnessing the popping of the QE Benanke bubble

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  3. Badduck

    Back then there were tons of retail traders contributing to the volatility. Now it’s just funds driving shit down 10% a day forever. Wait till they all start getting redemptions, thats how real crashes happen.

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  4. cwinsor

    This is one of the best articulations of sentiment I’ve ever read.

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  5. Badduck

    IE. FEYE down 10% a day. Forever.
    Hard to believe this was $65 at 10am yesterday.

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  6. Woj

    Interesting timeline. First sell off was about 1 month of flushing. We are at that point right now….

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  7. THE_WOLF

    history is repeating itself,
    cash is king

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  8. og

    So by August Yelp will be back to $100 right?!

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  9. Mike

    a guy can only go broke so many times

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  10. matt_bear

    You can see Elliot wave in action. It’s what makes the wave 2 retrace so high, and why wave 3 is the scariest/powerful of the 5.

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  11. Cascadian

    There’s gonna be a better time to sell, around Apr 15.

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  12. drake sucks

    UVXY +3.7%

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  13. zwolfe05

    FLY how can you STILL be in FEYE?

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  14. alf44

    .
    … back then any company with a “dot com” at the end of their name was instantly HOT !

    Just ask Mark Cuban !
    .

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    • The Equalizer

      LOL, Cuban.

      But that was sorta the point. Pre-Sarbox, founders could take a company public to get funding, and even joe retail had a chance to participate in the runup to bubbilicious valuation. Post-Sarbox, the best way to exit is to get bubble valuation from your VCs in series A/B rounds, then get at least two of the really cash-rich bubble names (e.g., FB GOOG YHOO) to outbid each other to keep you from falling into one of their competitors’ hands.

      Fuck trying to build a business anymore, in the valley, it’s still all about the exit.

      /sitting here watching my money burn, and I’m at 80% cash.
      //fail.

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  15. Robin

    Fly, speaking of liquidation and redemption, at some point, your investors will pull the rug too, no?

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  16. Badduck

    For the curious, SCMR is .56 cents now.

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  17. og

    When do we go short then? Are we all just too worried we’ll miss the huge snap back rally?

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  18. jersey whale

    I’m getting slaughtered everyday, may have to cash in and watch for a little while. The summer vacation fund has been decimated, was planning on Italy, might have to be Myrtle Beach now!

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    • DaJuice

      Ha, Myrtle Beach, aka “redneck riviera”. I grew up there.

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      • jersey whale

        Home of the great Kenneth Powers, mother f****n CEO of KSwiss

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  19. xxxhuggiebearxxx
    xxxhuggiebearxxx

    YELP is starting to sting.

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  20. doubleplus

    Great read, thanks.

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  21. Bravo

    SCMR has been on my mind since Monday. I nearly broke out in hives reminiscing. Perfect analogy to the current state of the market. Good luck Fly, I don’t think you’ll need it, but nonetheless…..

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  22. BOB

    Fly, what does the ppt say? You have got to be down a ton this year…

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  23. qeinfinity

    The only dip anyone should buy right now is chili cheese. That shit is delicious.

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  24. xxxhuggiebearxxx
    xxxhuggiebearxxx

    MOMMA

    hold me

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  25. Henry Fool

    Maybe the Market is tuned into this fact
    http://www.occupy.com/article/worldwide-waveofaction-begins-april-4-former-occupy-sites

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  26. Jake

    Fly,
    Maybe it’s time for you to stick to your daily commentary and leave the investing to the pros. I’m sure you’ll still have a few subscribers for that service. I know you want to be a good trader/investor and I can see that. I’m sure you can do it but not the way you’re doing it. I would suggest starting with an IBD seminar. I’m only trying to save you from losing all your money.

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    • The Fly

      Gee Jake,

      Thank you so much for your selfless concern. I am going to do just that, join an IBD seminar.

      Oh, and I don’t have subscribers for my picks. That’s provided here for free.

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      • xxxhuggiebearxxx
        xxxhuggiebearxxx

        cup n handle, son

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      • BOB

        how many times are you going to average down in these turd momo names before u throw in the towell and realize a gigantic loss?

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      • it is showtime

        Bad timing on the picks. any fly regular knows the research and ‘flare’ put into each post

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  27. razorsedge

    i met a girl today her name was clare something(her last name started with a v i think) she new many things, she told me she saw this coming. i told her i bought gold opts , she said she new that…. oh yea her last name was voyant

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  28. Trading_Nymph

    FLY I LOVE THE POST ABOVE because it is how I have felt over the last Five Years watching it climb going up, But, you know Bank of Japan will flood world with cash soon with more QQE and all you Bulls will feel good again.

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    • mad_scientist

      Wait, trading_nymph converted to a bull thesis? Oh no, it really is over, isn’t it?

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  29. Henry Fool

    The VXX and it’s brethren looks like buys

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  30. xxxhuggiebearxxx
    xxxhuggiebearxxx

    I am going to walk away from the turret for a few minutes and hope that the eminis are back at 1870 or higher.

    BRB

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  31. The Fly

    You bears are an evil crowd.

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    • Truth

      this site is ratchet

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    • Trading_Nymph

      Not Evil, just frustrated…Cocaine Addiction is something very hard to watch. IMHO, Market should have gone to rehab many months ago, yet central banks are still using.

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  32. xxxhuggiebearxxx
    xxxhuggiebearxxx

    GRUB and YELP are converging

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  33. going up

    i will laugh when we end the day @ the hi’s… we are going up from here. just bought sale, feye and splk. easy triples from these prices in a year.

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  34. Anton

    “So at 56 cents today, SCMR is a screaming buy! Gah-YOOO-guh!!! Buy, buy, bye!!!” – Jim “Call Me Jim” Cramer

    Thanks for the perspective.

    Hey, why aren’t you telling the haters to go fuck a pizza box or something? There are some schadenfreudey fucktards showing up to on this here blog lately.

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  35. xxxhuggiebearxxx
    xxxhuggiebearxxx

    This is getting a bit over done here now don’t you think boys

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  36. gorby

    Who wants to hold over the weekend.
    There is still tons of cash around and
    not alot of places to put it. Lots of profitable
    cos and emplotment is improving.The easy
    money may have been made but that
    is not to say the cupboard will be forever empty.

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  37. Flanki

    FEYE 45 gap fill today or monday? Then it should be able to go higher.

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  38. eagle

    Like $X. Sold when GS upgraded it to go over $200..

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  39. xxxhuggiebearxxx
    xxxhuggiebearxxx

    This is starting to get a bit serious. Was funny earlier.

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  40. it is showtime

    You have my permission to go long.

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  41. Mr. Partridge

    Good days are back

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  42. SK

    Wait we’re still 30 points from ATHs and bears are claiming victory?

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    • it is showtime

      At some point it turns buddy

      Last 12 months:
      All time highs. oh…. all time highs again… oh another record high… record high closes again. oh things must be so good! All these record highs…

      There’s no way these record highs could be bad is there? (sarcastic)

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  43. xxxhuggiebearxxx
    xxxhuggiebearxxx

    I can only assume this is starting to become a forced liquidation event.

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  44. og

    Biggest one day drop in Nasdaq since 2012? Ugh

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  45. qeinfinity

    All of the bids seems to be migrating.

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  46. xxxhuggiebearxxx
    xxxhuggiebearxxx

    As we enter the last hour, say your prayers.

    My needs are meager—i’d like 5 S&P points back. That seems eminently reasonable.

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    • Honest ABE, nohomo, MD
      Honest ABE, nohomo, MD

      Peanut Butter n Jelly n Banana is reasonable

      The plot of Father of the Bride Pt. 2 is reasonable

      Da Flys saturnine manner, shit is fucking reasnable

      UR REQUEST, PIMPIN, IS NOT REASONABLE. Mkts dont bounce cuz u in the middle of a K-hole

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  47. Oh Yeah

    this FEYE move is amazing, cant believe i shorted it at 90!!!

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    • Flanki

      Maybe Fly bought your sale.

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      • Oh Yeah

        LOL probably blogged about it after too to try and get u plebs to buy too

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        • Woj

          Where are you fuckers the other 350 days of the year when the market isn’t cratering? Always curious where you guys hide…

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          • Honest ABE, nohomo, MD
            Honest ABE, nohomo, MD

            normally comments are closed n heavily censored bcuz anybody who dare disagree gets deleted n banned to maintain da investing utopia

            they jus happen to be open now bc Fly needs entertainment in his time of need

            mainly doe his ego shrink all small at realization dat his blogs get only 5 comments when da comments is off

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    • Ohthe BOMB

      What is the date of your post here when you announced you had shorted FEYE?

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      • Woj

        Seriously. Remarkable how these guys always short within a few points of the high. They must be rich as fuck.

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    • Spud

      I can’t believe you did either. No really, troll. Easy to post anything.

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  48. Flanki

    No one here shorted FEYE over 100? In their make believe markets? hahaha

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    • Woj

      Flanki, what does your portfolio look like right now? Throw out some of your positions.

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      • Flanki

        Are you being defensive because you are guilty of trading in the make believe market? I never said your FEYE short was unbelievable. My port is actually doing ok during time because I own a bunch of boring grandpa stocks like GE MSFT RIG JPM and the likes. Thanks for asking though.

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        • Woj

          I’m confused. I never said I was short FEYE. I also don’t know what this make believe market is you are referring to.

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      • Flanki

        forgot to mention LO, ED but no one is interested in those names on this site. I think FEYE is over shooting on the downside but you have to buy in tiny increments down every 10-15%

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  49. Honest ABE, nohomo, MD
    Honest ABE, nohomo, MD

    I take it back Huggie, you aint learned shit.

    I’M OUTTA THE CRUDE GAME, INTO PENNY STOCKING NOW LOLOZ.

    At least Fly thinks what he knows u just knows what you think.

    “Im getting hosed so assume forced liquidatn” “pray for mojo” gimme a break, you lucky Fly aint still runnin his asshole of the day awards, shit you have that trophy EZ no problem, I submit to the prosecution evidence of ur fuccboi behavior above.

    Son, you better stick a quarter in ya ass, bc u jus played yoself homie

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  50. Bart Smith

    Liquidate you BAstards! so I can swoop in and buy your shares, you greedy margined dorks.

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  51. Mark Smith

    Is anyone else wondering if Le Fly is secretly selling FEYE, SPLK, etc. short? Someone owns the April 19 puts at 80. Is it Le Fly?

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    • Honest ABE, nohomo, MD
      Honest ABE, nohomo, MD

      LOLOLOLOLOZ

      SOME1 OWNS SOMETHING…. >>>> MUST BE ANONYMOUS BLOGGER

      quick, dial zero hedge theyll give u top billing right under charles hugh smith of the estemmed OfTwoMinds blog

      I hope you under 25, smh

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  52. ripper

    guys the market is just 1% off athighs. buy le dip, sans momo stocks ofc.

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    • Bart Smith

      ARE you that dumb? The NAZ leads s and p will tank next.

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  53. Jukeboxhero

    ….just in….Le Fly getting bukakkeed and retreating back to Staten Island. It’s nothing personal Le Fly but this is a zero sum game. I’m taking your money as you have taken some of mine. Rest up friend for another day of battle.

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  54. alf44

    .
    … it has finally happened …

    The Inmates are Running the Asylum !
    .

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  55. mhass33

    When TLT and SPY sell off together… we are officially screwed

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  56. Honest ABE, nohomo, MD
    Honest ABE, nohomo, MD

    Lets change the subject, yall been fucked so hard today the room starting to stink.

    Say, who goin to Preakness to pick up some baddies!

    I know I am

    NE 1 care to make some wagers ??

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  57. css1

    fwiw, the last time vxx, or any brethren ramped….it first started with commodities april/may of 2011…vxx opened low on a Monday, 7-25- and went up 250% or close to it, what happened, is every, and I mean almost every earnings report was sold and sold hard, then the big news that took it down was usa credit downgrade…..so someone knew something………..the recent earnings have been ehhhhh, they get punched up, then sold…..so here we have all tech blasted after a 60 month run, don’t forget they all had no debt back then…..goldman comes out Thursday and says mkt only has 3% more for highs for the year….hi proba is 10% pullback on iwm and q’s, bounce, and they scream for stimulus, we might go 15%….question is is the street aiming to test yellens fortitude…..fwiw, I see this lasting 6 weeks….sell in may washout….one month stability…..and someone comes out saying….gubments worldwide can’t keep growing credit without limits, ie, stimmy the joint up, double bottom mid june………….jeeze, it’s a pullback

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