Seasonal Trends At Your Doorstep

Now that I’ve done my part in stirring a race war, I thought I’d point you into some interesting directions, as far as stocks are concerned.

As readily told on the teevee, the month of December is generally a good one for stocks. Naturally, they just say this without backing it up with data. Truth be told, the market has been down 5 of the past 10 years during December. But who’s gonna let some facts get in the way of a good story?

But if you dig deeper and inspect the undercurrents of the tape, you can find some legitimate trends.

Using the seasonality engine inside of The PPT, I’ve come up with a short list of stocks that tend to outperform in December.

UN: has never been down in December, up 27 years in a row.
SYT: 13 years up, zero down, avg return 6.3%
GGB: 13 years up, one down, avg return of 10.4%
CLF: 22 years up, 4 down, avg return of 7.24%

Broader trends:
Steel and Iron stocks outperform, namely NUE, GGB, STLD and CLF.
Chinese stocks do abysmally. Avoid.
Homies do good, namely RYL, PHM and KBH.
REITs do fantastic, by far the best performers.
Oil and Gas: NOV, BAS, SD and CLR.
Ag: MON, POT, MOS.

Stocks to avoid:
CRUS, EXK, SWHC, BIDU, KNDI and RVLT.

How bad is CRUS during December you ponder?
Out of 23 years, its been up just 6. That’s a 73% lose rate in December for an average loss of 7.33%.

On the flip side, buying the blood in CRUS during December has proven to be a very profitable endeavor, as it tends to shine in January, sporting a 77% win rate and average return north of 10%. In other words, watch for CRUS to get crushed and buy it afterwards.

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