iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,474 Blog Posts

Chinese Iron Ore Demand, Steel and How it Pertains to Dry Bulkers

I’m looking at the winners, mainly in the healthcare and 3-d space and it’s awe inspiring. I was in these stocks, like ONVO, DDD, SSYS, 50-60% ago, when the homosexuals from Seeking Alpha were penning hit pieces on a daily basis. Oh, don’t think I forgot about that. Just two weeks ago XONE was getting mauled, now it’s loved.

What’s changed?

Absolutely nothing.

Stocks are ripping based purely on momentum. You can try to trade ahead by screening for low float/high short interest names with improving technicals; but it’s all a crap shot. The one constant has been solar. Everyone loves solar. I remember when the investment community mocked them as part of Obama’s green revolution.

Soclal media stocks are definitely in the penally box and lo and behold steel and iron stocks are in play.

Was there any way one could’ve predicted the moves in X, AKS and MT?

Yes!

The Dry Bulkers were bragging about chinese iron ore demand for months. Well, you need iron ore in order to make steel. To properly heat the iron ore, you need coking coal. Stocks like WLT and CLF are responding in kind.

The only piece to the puzzle that is left to fulfill is the shippers. Hell, we have a full fledged rebound in steel demand, apparently. Coking coal companies are reliving the Carnegie era and yet the shippers are down 50% for the year. Might I add, if you want to mine for that ore, you’re gonna need JOY, which is also depressed.

One of two things is accurate here. Either chinese iron ore demand is real because steel is being used at factories. Or, this is all smoke and mirrors. Based upon the 52 week high list, I am going with the former and that’s why I am heavily long BALT. It’s my largest position.

FYI: During this past quarter, most dry bulkers sported 50%+ yoy revenue growth, yet they’re still treated like biofuel stocks.

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15 comments

  1. budh

    Industry keeps trying to establish coal and oil shipping terminals on the left coast, but the granolas turn up in mass to protest every public hearing.

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  2. fifty2weekhi

    What do think of GNK longs? I own a bit of that in addition to BALT. TIA!

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  3. bushwacker2

    Conviction. I love it.

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  4. tradingnymph

    Now your singing my song. Chinese Rebar Futures suck the big one and we are leaving the “construction” time of the year and going into the winter time of China. Thermal Coal not coking is the seasonal play, but New Castle Port action has not been wild, so slower qtr coming to China.

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  5. ironbird

    Hey, wait a minute! Bio-fuel is real. Some burnout tax evader was using it. It is the future, global warming err climate change proves it. Have you not noticed the extremist severe deadly extreme and vicious weather everywhere?!? CLNE actually looks okay right here.

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  6. johnrotten

    Wow… Hope none of you good folks are holding SRPT

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  7. bood

    long life balt

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  8. bood

    free and egle are in a sweet spot too

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  9. matt_bear

    Happy 6th, sir Fly. Also would like to offer gentlemanly applause to Mr. Thaler and Raul3. They don’t get enough love and attention for the work they do at the bottom of the page.

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