iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,474 Blog Posts

My Very Best Ideas

This post is going to serve a dual purpose.

1. To remind myself of my best ideas.

2. To remind you of my best ideas.

We’re gonna do this by listing 3 stocks per sector, so here goes.

Financials

BX: The largest owner of residential homes in America, boss of all bosses in private equity space. They are to finance today what Goldman was to finance 10 years ago.

WETF: They are the best closed end fund operator in the country, manager of the Wisdom Tree funds, innovative and savvy. Their Japanese ETF, DXJ, has attracted billions in new money–making WETF a prime takeover target for other ETF players, BLK and IVZ.

APO: Here is another extremely savvy LBO shop, second fiddle to BX–but smartly run by industry legends.

Basic Materials

PBR: I like this name short. It is run by clowns who know as much about oil as virgins know about fornicating.

WNR: I’m not a big fan of the materials at all here. However, the refiners should weather the storm and continue to thrive due to lack of pipeline infrastructure.

KWK: This is a high leverage play on the resurgence of natural gas and their ability to divest from some very valuable properties at premium prices.

Consumer Goods

KORS: In my opinion, they are the best retailer in fashion right now, punching the bozos from COH in their flaring nostrils every single day of the week. Ultimately, the stock will trade over $100.

GNRC: I am a big fan of their products and know that many will be buying their generators, for years to come, as hurricanes ravage America’s aging electrical grid.

TM: I should’ve bought this stock at $90 when I published my Japanese thesis trade idea. Even though it’s up, the stock is in the sweet spot of a 2nd half automobile boom, coupled with insane Abenomics.

Healthcare

PCYC: Crazy people for the win, on the dip!

ATHN: I like this stock as a short. Their CEO is a loose cannon, someone I could see featured on American Greed one day.

LLY: The stock is barely up 10% this year, while all of their nerdier peers are up 20%. That’s a stupid reason to own a stock. Then again, some people buy stocks simply because they’re down. LLY is a quality company that will not castrate me me if they post an earnings shortfall.

Industrial Goods

BZH: This is the riskiest play in residential construction. Although they’re currently focusing on firming up the balance sheet instead of growth, I believe they will turn up the volume, going into 2014, making BZH a must own stock into a housing boom.

USG: People have this stock all wrong, punishing the shares to a 8 percent deficit for the year. Shame on the sellers. This is your #1 wallboard play heading into a hurricane season/housing boom. When earnings power comes back, this will double.

LNN: I’ve been trading this stock, in an out, since the $20’s. Like a moron, I always end up selling it. This is a long term play on water irrigation. This and VMI are going significantly higher over the long term. Now if I can just remind myself that the next time I buy it.

Services

OSTK: I’ve been talking to myself and to people inside of The PPT about this company since $5, yet have not purchased a single share. I find the website to be much better than AMZN for a variety of items. The next time it pulls back, I am getting in. I actually chose this stock over WFM, my #4 stock in the services sector.

FBHS: One of the best ways to play the housing boom in a number of ways. It is the one stop shop for home remodeling/renovation.

ULTA: My wife is always in this stupid store. There is no way this stock doesn’t trade way up, over the next few years.

Technology

YELP: Words cannot express the emotions I felt when I saw this stock gap up today. It’s everything I knew would happen, once the company found its legs and ran. Well, they are running and someone is going to want to buy them out.

ANGI: I am hearing too many positive anecdotal reviews from contractors to ignore it any longer. This is yet another name that I’ve talked about in great lengths, but failed to pull the trigger. I believe their model works and will only get better as the housing boom solidifies itself.

CREE: LED lighting is a juggernaut and CREE is the godfather of it. There are many ways to play it, from AIXG to VECO down to RBCN. However, CREE is the direct beneficiary of the move away from antiquated incandescent lighting. I swapped out all of my incandescent high hats, in exchange for LEDs. Eventually, people will catch on and CREE will become a beast.

Notable mentions:

TRIP, RBCN, FRO, SBH, WDAY, AAPL, FSLR, MU, WFR, EXP, KKR, HMC, AMKR, RAS, NMR, WFM, VMI, MIDD, Z, TRLA, BREW, HIG, AMBA, GTAT, PIR, NXPI, FCS and NSM.

 

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16 comments

  1. The_Real_Hmmm

    I like a lot of them but the high growth plays are subject to excess volatility should the market pull back. I feel the risk/reward is difficult here. What the fuck do I know though.

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    • The Fly

      Well, I don’t own any of them now, so obviously I agree with that assertion.

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  2. pedro

    Great ideas but upside feels limited (other than housing). Someone explain to the Mr. Time Stamps that weekly jobless claims don’t mean anything in an environment with a depressed labor participation rate.If we get a 150k+ print tomorrow,tell me we’re moving in the right direction. Claims going lower doesn’t tell me shit.

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  3. The Eye-Talian Stallion
    The Eye-Talian Stallion

    AAPL is not CRPL anymore. A 4.5 to 4.8″ screen will have the iFanBoys punching each other in their “flared nostrils” for a choice spot in the queue at the AAPL stores.
    And my guess is that the iTV will be a game changer and not what everyone expects.

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    • OG

      I would definitely punch somebody for a 4.5″ iPhone, but even I don’t think it will happen.

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      • Mike

        4.8 and a sapphire coated scratch proof screen!! Im on the GTAT train…all aboard

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  4. Maxxo

    PBR short looks tempting here

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  5. OG

    I knew Yelp would eventually run. That’s why I had to put it in the IRA instead of trading.

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  6. It Is Showtime
    It Is Showtime

    Officially wednesday was not a pomo day. Thursday was. (pretty ridiculous in the world’s heart of free market capitalism we have to watch a calendar of market interference)

    Learn so much from reading here (like the names in sector breakdown). Woody Allen said 90% of life is showing up. I’m trying to showup!

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  7. Trading_Nymph

    Spainish 10 year under 4%, they have risk of depression and riots…but this is the shit that the Global Clams do. Its a Race to the bottom…can you saw deflation.

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  8. 25 Longs and a pair of smelly shorts
    25 Longs and a pair of smelly shorts

    Don’t you people ever sleep?
    Long US/JPY for a 30 pip swipe before 8:30am
    Long MSBHY too
    If you like Toyota (or any other Asian car) with an ECM

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  9. RosenRush

    Fly, for healthcare, you really should consider the following ideas:

    1. Medicaid: The growth opportunities over the next 3-5 years are tremendous. Wall Street expects losses in new market entries, so just winning bids will boost the stock, even if EPS doesn’t rise for a couple of years. Specifically, Molina is priced right, and is on the verge of signing a deal in Cali that will effectively prevent them from losing money. Duals are a gold mine and there’s always the chance we see another mega deal in this space (Humana or Aetna would be good buyers of MOH)

    2. Accretive Health (AH) – simply put, these guys are in the sweet spot right now and are under their IPO price. Long-term this company is going to bank coin and/or get bought out by MCK or another similar player.

    3. Speaking of MCK, these guys are dominating the IT space and should see very consistent growth over the next 5-10 years. I don’t know if they can get bought out by IBM or somebody else looking to make a huge play, but either way, they are going to dominate.

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  10. Vertigo

    $PPC trying its damndest to breakout; move yesterday on big volume. Today is earnings day.

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