The Art of Winning While Losing

Gather around children, Uncle Fly is going to show you how a gentleman wins while suffering from beast-like losses.

A short while ago, I purchased NIHD, based upon the concept that the lowest form of sub-human would flock–MIND YOU– to their local Brasilian nextel dealership to buy a phone, now that Apple has been beaten dead. This turned out to be one of my stupidest ideas ever, as the stock wallowed–MIND YOU–down into the oblivion of misery.

I sold the stock out yesterday, booking a very calm and collective 15% loss, cursing the heavens for tricking me into such an unfashionable name, swearing oaths to all of the Gods, both old and new, to never invest in shoddy south american cellular phone enterprises again.

Then this morning I was blessed with this good news.

NII Holdings sees Q4 rev above consensus; sees FY13 rev below consensus (6.38 )
Co issues upside guidance for Q4 (Dec), sees Q4 (Dec) revs of ~$1.5 bln vs. $1.47 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; net subscriber additions of ~2,200, and total capital expenditures of ~$525 million with FY12 OBIDA of $930-950 mln.

Co issues downside guidance for FY13 (Dec), sees FY13 (Dec) revs of $5.7-5.9 bln vs. $6.14 bln Capital IQ Consensus (may not compare due to planned divestitures). Consolidated adjusted OIBDA in the range of $600 million to $650 million; Mid-single digit growth rate for its consolidated subscriber base. Co sees negative operating CF in 2013 up $200 mln YoY.

In 2013, the co plans to continue to invest in the deployment of its 3G networks with a particular focus on building those networks and improving results in its core markets of Mexico and Brazil. The co also announced that it is continuing to support its operations in Peru, Chile and Argentina, while also exploring strategic options for these markets, such as partnerships, service arrangements and asset sales to maximize the value of those businesses and generate additional liquidity. The Company is also in the process of pursuing a sale and leaseback of an aggregate of up to 4,500 telecommunication towers that it owns in Brazil and Mexico through a competitive bidding process. The Company is currently evaluating offers from a number of interested parties and expects to be in a position to complete these transactions during the course of 2013.

The stock is bid down more than 18% in pre-market trade, leaving Le Fly in a very powerful winning position, following a most horrendous loss.

Off to do other powerful and important things.

(tips hat)

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