Saturday, December 10, 2016
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
14,876 Blog Posts

The New Bear Market Has Begun

I don’t think some of you realize how divided this country is right now. Some of you get it, because you live inside the confederacy. I’ve always considered myself to be a “southern gentlemen”, amongst many other things, despite being born and bred in the heathenous, ruinous north. There are some things that cannot be forgiven, one of which is the reelection of Barack Obama.

I speak to many well to do people and they are protesting with their coin. I believe gun sales will shoot higher too. Hell, a 79 year old client of mine from Texas went out and bought a new gun today. What the fuck did he do that for?! People are moved by emotions. They believe in certain ideals and will do whatever they can to see them come to fruition. That being said, maybe Obama’s vision for the future is the right one. I am not here to judge.

However, what I am here to do is direct client funds in the most optimal place possible. On Jupiter’s Stone, we are heading for significantly lower prices, despite the blips to the upside that is to be expected along the way.

I allocated 8% of assets in SWHC today, putting me at 47% cash. I have nearly 30% of my assets tied up in VHC and another 8% in EXK. The other 1% is reserved for old man stocks, none of which hold any weight in these discussions.

My advice to you, very simply, is to run. For dear God, Bernanke is too stoned to realize what is going on here.

As of right now, I am bullish on VHC, gold/silver, guns/beer and bearish as fuck on everything else. Plus, the Mayans are gonna come back from the dead and destroy the planet in two months anyway.

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  1. Scott Bleier

    but, but, but, what about Ben and eternal QE and…..

  2. jimmy_two_times

    What about the cliff?

  3. Steve Place

    i’ve got some insurance to sell you

    • tm

      I’ve been selling put spreads all day on MCD…It can keep dropping, I don’t care, I’ll keep selling them.

  4. asteroids

    Any news if the turkey gods are showing up this year?


    We agree,

    Check out my post from last night… calling for a bear market.

    I am also long SWHC

    and short SPY

  6. BottleRocket

    It’s called being a sore loser. He went out and bought a gun at 79 years old because he is mad. He is mad because his fanatical tea party neighbors told him that black men are coming to steal his cows now that Obama has been reelected. If it’s a barometer on anything, it’s simply showing how similar Swat Valley Pakistanis are with inbred, racist, close minded American hillbillies.

    • Jenkins

      You’re a moron.

    • tm

      The sad thing is, that’s a believable back-story.

    • Bleached Asshole


    • Linda

      Don’t try talking sense around here when it comes to politics. Useless endeavor. People are scared because they are scaring themselves. They are buying guns to fight who? Themselves? Nobody is coming for them. Nobody is going to ban guns, confiscate IRA’s, put old people on death panels, fill in the mindless scary hardcore right blathering blank here. If TSHTF it will be because of a self fulfilling prophecy. It’s almost as if these people WANT us to fall apart into miserable, violent, hungry, gold trading chaos. Just so they can say they were “right all along.” Sickening. And these people wonder why this nation is so divided. Look in the mirror. Okay boys, fire away . . .

      • TheTroll

        Old men are scared to loose their guns, much like women are scared to loose the rights to their own vaginas and both of those groups are vastly responsible for why we are in this mess. Emotional thinkers have led us all to be mauled by the Bear….Nice work fuk-tards…Nice work

        • heaterman

          Old men have a better sense of history and perspective along with the benefit of more time to assimilate what they have learned…
          What they have learned and see a little more clearly than we younguns is that certain shifts in society always preceed the ultimate demise of said society. More than a few are on the radar screen as we speak.

        • JR

          Oh stop it, Heaterman, It’s clearly tea baggerism (as if anyone can actually qualify that commonly referenced term) and nothing else. We’re all terrified of black men, women, Latinos, scientists, robots and teenagers. It has nothing to do with age, wisdom and insight. Its just tea bagger syndrome. Keep it simple…..

        • Heaterman

          Spend a little time perusing history JR. It seems to bear out what some of the old boys I converse with are talking about. Politicians placating the masses with “gifts” of entitlement, moral decay, haves and have not’s, citizens divided over the direction and purpose of the country……..all sounds familiar doesn’t it.

        • JR

          Not sure if you detected my sarcasm or not, but of course I agree with you. I’m no fossil (yet), but my middle-age has bestowed upon me wisdom well beyond my years. I think de Tocqueville said it best:

          “A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship. The average age of the world’s greatest civilizations has been 200 years.”

          What great insight, for a “frog”. lol

        • TheTroll

          I personally agree with the gun hoarding old men that have attained the wisdom of which you speak. Unfortunately they have become the boogey man for the 50.5% to fear, mock and rally against.

        • KCTrader

          Why do they hoard? Afraid of the Mexican or the Canadian. I say Ney.

      • ottnott

        They are buying guns to help them protect the weapons they accumulated after the 2008 election.

        “SENATOR PHIL GRAMM (R-TX): (From videotape.) I believe that gunownership by law-abiding citizens deters crime. I am a gun owner andI’m a shooter and I’m a hunter. I own more shotguns than I need, butnot as many as I want.”

        That’s from 1995, when the estimated # of guns in the US was a mere 200 million. The nation has armed up since then, and fears nothing short of a black man in a black jacket and hat standing in front of a voting site.

      • PostApocalypticTrader

        Amen, Sistah of the Logical Left

      • JR

        Has anyone ever noticed that incredibly, WOMEN always escape being painted with the same broad brush? Linda must be a paragon of even handedness, tolerance and intelligence. Even white women who foolishly attach their fates to ignorant white tea bagger men in great numbers are smarter, kinder, more able, always less bigoted. Interesting….

      • republicat

        Blacks, Hispanics, and Asians buy guns too!!!

        Go to a gun range sometime, it is like the UN General Assembly.

      • mad_scientist

        There are death panels in obamacare. A panel of non-medical “experts” who decide what treatments your insurance will cover and not cover. By syllogism that means they decide whether you live or die, because some treatments are the difference between life and death. What don’t you get about that?

    • Narwahl

      Cows are a great idea. Throw a handful of them on your investment property and get a tax break.

    • traderconfessions

      exactly right. But then again the old dude lives in Texas so such behavior is expected. Can’t we give the fuckin’ state to the Mexicans in exchange for a couple cases of good beer and Tequila?

  7. noodleboy

    She sells sea shells by the sea shore.

  8. lol

    I calculate at best 35 years left of consumable water at current population growth and water usage rates. Stash PHO and PIO shares or individual water plays away for a long time, you’ll need it to pay for water costs eventually.

  9. Rollo Tomasi

    “Rally monkey hushpuppies” anyone??

  10. Bleached Asshole

    Dr Fly, You need to take your meds!

  11. riggedgame

    This should make both sides happy;

    1. Get rid of the special low rate for “carried interest” of hedge funds.

    2. Set the dividend and capital gains tax at 20% for ALL TAXPAYERS, but exempt the first $5000 for everybody.

    3. Extend the Bush Tax Cuts permanently for all taxpayers, including the top earners. This is in keeping with
    Obama’s pledge to “raise taxes on those over $250K” because of 1 and 2 above.

    4. Reinstate the full Social Security withholding.

    5. Reduce the “sequester” of military spending from $50 billion a year to half that.

    This could be agreed to in Lame Duck by Thanksgiving. Absolutely NO CHANGES ALLOWED. The new Congress could propose other stuff next year.

  12. Rick

    Is this site the last refuge of the Tea party?

    • Frog

      Yes. Other people read the site but most days they do not comment on the idiocies they read. Because, when they do, they are majorly insulted by people who “know” that what they hear on Bullshit Mountain– otherwise known as Fox News– must be true. Because it was on the TeeVee.

      • Frog

        BTW, Fly, you ask why your client bought a gun. Try this. Wacth Fox News for a number of days on end. Then imagine that it is true. You will find yourself buying guns, even if you already have some.

        • Mr. Cain Thaler

          Frog, you have mentioned Fox News in your ramblings no less than 1,000 times in the last week.

          You have a serious illness. Get help.

      • JR

        Thank god for MSNBC, Rachel Maddow and Chris Matthews, right Frog? lol. You are every bit the tool that any Fox News viewer is, of that I am certain.

        • Frog

          I am not a tool of anyone. I prefer to watch the people with the facts. As the great Stephen Colbert says, “Facts have a well known liberal bias.”

          There are not just different kinds of ideologies. There are actual objective realities. And there are places like that check facts.

          As someone noted below with the url here, which I’ll cite once again, Fox even lied to themselves about whether Romney was statistically likely to win the election, until the very last minute.


        • JR

          Stephen Colbert? I rest my case.

        • pgwarner

          You are correct Mr JR

        • Frog

          And why is he right? Because he joins you in ignoring facts & believing bs? I hope you enjoy your club of fact ignoreres..

        • pgwarner

          Frog, the key is don’t watch either of them. Don’t indulge in partisan polemist political entertainment. That point isn’t “Well our political wackos happen to be right”. Both sides say that. Its pointless. If you are reading or listening to someone talking about “politics” and they insult, demean or stoop to name calling you can be assured that they have no valid point to make.

        • Frog

          I’ll check them on or another site. Every side is not equal. Obama is acting differenly than Bush– not as differently as I would like, but differently.

          Lies are lies, not just one of 2 equal sides of an issue. If you have ever researched & counted the lies on Fox News, you would know that they have the record, the blue ribbon in any lying contest.

        • pgwarner

          You just made an assumption that I agree with FOX news. I don’t watch it or MSNBC. Why in the world should I subject myself to Sean Hannity, Bill O’Reilly, Ed Schultz or Al Sharption? There are so many calm ways to gather information. Its fun for the red meat crowds on either side but it does nothing to further the debate on how to move anything forward.

          It is certainly right and good to have a political view based on your values and how you see the world working. Its good and necessary to debate with others about things of import. But when one stoops to engaging in political demagoguery it ceases to have meaning.

          Politicians do it to gain and maintain power. Its pointless to fact check the other sides political hyperbole. They are not meant to be statements of facts but to motivate their followers.

          No one is entitled to their own facts. That is true but one hardly needs Chris Mathews to be the arbitrator. He is an advocate.

          There are political ideologies and there is politics. They are not the same.

        • lol

          People have biases and PEOPLE report on fact check websites.
          For example see

        • lol

          “Obama is acting differenly than Bush– not as differently as I would like, but differently.”

          key word acting… They’re both actors. enough politics people with firmly rooted beliefs will believe whatever they want. hypothesize, test your results and see if you can show evidence that supports your conclusion.

          Neither side is always right, most people hear what they want to. I am certainly not immune from reticular activating system, but politics among many other things in life is mostly just opinion and one person’s interpretation of too many variables to be able to isolate and draw any conclusions without bias.

  13. DaveyNC

    Meh. Arcade Fire=Hipster Puss Rock

  14. Language Dork

    After listening to the news and all the election coverage, my daughter asked me why everyone was talking about a “fecal” cliff. I had no comeback . . . .

  15. lol

    Why buy a gun when you can 3d DDD print one?
    Also, if the Mayans don’t wipe us out, the consumable water supply will be gone in 35 years if population growth and consumption rates remain the same and we don’t find a way to convert ocean water into drinkable water. Of course even if we do use ocean water eventually we will run out of that too.Ultimately we need modern Alchemy (nanotechnology) in a huge way on a scale never seen before. We need every child at the age of 12 to be prepared to innovate and build his own business out of his inventions so robots don’t replace all our jobs with nothing for us to do all day. Then we can invent skynet and if it doesn’t solve the problem by killing us, it can create solutions and intergalactic space travel so we can get water elsewhere.

    • Cascadian

      There’s plenty of fresh water. That’s just scare tactics for city people to support various causes.

      • lol

        I’m not relying on scare tactics just running the numbers myself. If the numbers I have are accurate it’s not scare tactics, just math.

        Now can some of the water be recycled? Yes. I fully expect there to be much more than 35 years left when you consider recycling water and using ocean water. But individual areas of the world, including parts of the US will certainly get scarce in our children’s lifetime.

    • riggedgame

      Sterilize everybody after their first kid for the next 50 years. Just think of all the job openings in 2045!

    • Lisa

      There’s no need to worry or fret, if the human waste is erased by rabid Mayans. World peace. The only route to world peace –because how can the world be at peace with the human element of rational solutions in constant conflict? Rationality is conflict, and humans are the only rational species equipped with the digits to get intergalactic, and stuff.

  16. Mr.Partridge

    It’s a bear market, you know 🙂
    trade accordinally

  17. Patrick

    I’m glad you finally came over to the right side. Must feel good to admit you are a “Southern Gentlemen”

    • Lisa

      Be cautious. He’s a southern gentleman with a hybrid swagger, and he is capable of laying anyone flat — with one look in the eye.

  18. JustCommonSense

    ‘they are protesting with their coin’
    They should have done that BEFORE the election.

  19. Staten Island

    Minutes ago I got this email from a good guy I met a couple of yrs ago. I will send a few bucks.

    Emergency – Philly to NY Mercy Mission- Elderly folk and young families in the cold & darkThursday, November 8, 2012 2:17 PM From: “FERNANDO ANTONIO SALGUERO” <
    I am collecting food, clothing and basic hygiene products for a team leaving Philly at 8 am 11/10 Saturday morning bound for Staten Island where folks that have not prepared to take care of themselves. Many are elderly, cold and living in dark high rise buildings. Please dig into your heart and pantry for these fellow Americans. I WILL COME TO YOU AND PICK UP ANY AND ALL DONATIONS FROM the SE PA region. Call me AT 215 868 4743 or inbox me ASAP to set up your donation. Canned food, diapers/depends/feminine pads, toothpaste, soap, shampoo, instant/ easy to eat food, bottled water. ANYTHING THAT YOUR FAMILY WOULD NEED IF THERE WAS NO GRID SYSTEM IN THE COLD WEATHER.
    I am leaving my house in my van now to start pick ups in NE Philly. I will check email/text frequently.


  20. Mcp

    Mr. fly
    Let me get this straight.
    You’ve been losing your ass on every pick lately,
    And you think you did great in VHC?

    You’re no different than Raj & company. Anyone can bank coin when insider information is handed to them.

  21. JTU

    DDD breaks through all time high!
    Up over 7%!

  22. George

    The far right consists mostly of angry, greedy, racist, chauvinistic, and aging white men.

  23. JTU

    CVO up over 11%!
    Earnings were better than expected and the short interest is quite large.

  24. Odumbo

    Yes we here in the South definitely secede from the Union! Fuck Odumbo!

  25. Odumbo

    Should Secede!

  26. I Like Ribs!

    I Like Ribs. Added to STAG..
    cooking ribs right now!

  27. I Like Ribs!


  28. Trading_Nymph

    Fly this is a amazing game..I love it sooo much.

  29. dvk1970

    If I compare the current situation with some strategy games I play…..I would rage a war soon and rob my neighbours from their resources. Btw if the US is divided…look at Europe as it is divided and the socialist welfare states in the North West including Germany start to slide now…..2013 ….2012 was a good year