Reminder: The Winter is Coming
Who benefits from a ‘non-global warming’ type of winter? Say for example it was actually cold this coming winter, with snow and all, what stocks stand to benefit?
The obvious is retail. From boots to heavy cable knit sweaters, people will flock to M, JCP, KSS, PLCE, TJX to buy shit from DECK, COLM and RL.
Also, let’s not forget what the cold does to automobiles. Maintenance is expensive. A cold winter benefits AZO, PBY, ORLY and AAP.
Energy is the obvious winner, from XOM to WNR. But there are some under the radar stocks who have benefitted from colder climes, such as MIND. But the obvious beneficiaries are companies that produce electricity and companies who deliver coal to said utilities. Companies like CLF, ACI, ANR, JRCC, WLT, OXF, CLD and BTU will win, alongside FE, CNP, ED, PPL and AEE. Ancillary winners of a coal rush will be JOY and CAT.
Natural gas plays include UPL, ECA and RRC.
NKE, CROX, UA and CF will no longer get to enjoy “extended seasonality” for their warmer weather products, as the winter winds shut them the fuck down. Homebuilders lose too, as people shut themselves in, frightened of the cold, shunning the specter of buying new homes.
Rails win, through the delivery of coal. Stocks like CSX, UNP, GBX, RAIL and NSC will–once again–enjoy doing business during the colder months of the year–providing citizens of America with the fuel needed to keep them alive. Providing they stay in business, OSG benefits too.
Lastly, we need to acknowledge the existence of snow in this country, traditionally in abundance from November through February. For snow, I offer you two plays: CMP to eliminate it and PII to ride on top of it at your favorite MTN resort.
23 Responses to Reminder: The Winter is Coming
So is Christmas!
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been peeking from outside on twitter, good picks, been on different sites, will have to buy now that I’ve cashed in on fly’s knowledge, don’t know if he can handle me though
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Also a reminder…
vking says:
October 18, 2012 at 9:18 am
A new feature has been just added to The V.Kingdom blog
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BUY DECK
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actually buy DECK and WNR
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Go ahead and bookmark this post. Thank me later.
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I was just scrolling down to say thanks for the ideas!
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already printed it. thanks.
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Fantastic theme based winter preview! I like the way you walked through a theme to logical results. Got my EPIC pass. Ready for MTN snow. I’ve been trying to figure out what stocks win no matter who wins in November. I think LNG / NG might be a winner. Companies that make NG based heavy trucks (thinking of CMI). Any thoughts along those lines?
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Abracadabra Alakazam – your money is gone ..
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Crude oil prices are supported by new EU Iran oil sanctions & war in Syria. US oil plays or foreign oil plays should benefit.
Two days after the US elections China’s central party will vote to appoint their new leaders for next 5 yr. period. Experts anticipate China will announce new stimulus around that time to bolster support for new leaders.
A solid play on oil in China is LPH because they just acquired a new 120k mt faciliity to increase capacity 80%, going from 2 to 3 facilities. This $110M facility was paid for with all cash, zero dilution (took them 18 mos. to raise enough cash to close). LPH auditors performed a reconciliation covering 2009 to 2012 of their SAT/SAIC tax filings (based on direct observation of PRC computers in the state tax office) versus SEC filings.
LPH will grow from TTM EPS of $0.62 (current TTM P/E of 3.4) to a TTM EPS by June 2013 of $0.80, & EPS of $1 by the end of next year. They had sales staff in region for months before closing & the facility started deliveries Oct. 10.
October 29 expiration date of 11.5M warrants leftover from 2009 (w/ 100.8M shares). Nov. 15 earnings will be good since Aug. & Sept. revenues were up 11% YoY and volume oil sold up 18% YoY.
2009 to 2012 they went from 1 facility to 3 facilities, 50K to 220K metric tons capacity – 340%.
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But *their* are some under the radar stocks who have benefitted from colder climes, such as MIND.
Do you have a ghost writer today? That’s unlike you.
Thanks for the research though – much appreciated!!
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Right , WLT really benefits from cold weather …..what a retard .
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Yes, you fucking moron. WLT is most heavily levered to met coal markets. Once pricing improves in the industry, WLT’s margins go up.
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There is speculation that steel is on the rise in China. Rebar prices are up which benefits met and iron ore. Analysts were worrying about Armageddon scenarios which is ridiculous most of the time. They like to hedge themselves to cover if they are really wrong.
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Careful with those coal/ore plays. Some are levered to thermal coal (electricity) and others are metallurgical (steel). WLT and CLF are steel plays. BTU is thermal and ANR is both. I don’t have my research notebook with me right now to quickly run through each profile but it’s just a heads up.
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PII makes snowmobiles.
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I go oldschool and print my favorite posts. This post will be added to my binder.
The last post I printed, in case you’re curious:
http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2011/10/27/lets-roll-dice/
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great post as always…but I really liked your ‘value traps’ you posted before
I think after the tax loss selling is done at the end of december, alot of those names will come back in 2013 imho
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I’m about to hedge with some VXX, someone talk me out of it
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http://ibankcoin.com/raul3/?p=767
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When the weather gets cold, leave your brothers behind and get a new life:
LARISSA, Greece — The world’s oldest profession is giving a whole new meaning to love of the game.
Players on a cash-strapped Greek soccer team now wear pink practice jerseys with the logos “Villa Erotica” and “Soula’s House of History,” two bordellos it recruited as sponsors after drastic government spending cuts left the country’s sports clubs facing ruin.
AP Photo/Nikolas Giakoumidis
Voukefalas’ players are sporting bright pink practice jerseys featuring bordello logos as part of the ailing Greek club’s new sponsorship deal.
If you look at the main page, this post still says DEVELOPING…
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