I am going old school on you wheeled chaired motherfuckers. Are you bullish or bearish? Answer the fucking question and don’t think twice about it.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,472 Blog Posts
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WIG
I vote Bullish
I remember the market fell almost 5% after QE2 was announced by The Clam.
yes sir
You are still at that game? Ha.
very selective
Then proceeded to rip +35% after that.
Good luck shorting.
if you’ve been short social media you are feeling pretty good right now
Not to be a nit, but which market are you both referring to? The SPY sold off like 3.5% then rallied 15.6% until the may 2011 high. If you’d like to go back to jackson hole as the official announcement of QE2 (which it wasn’t) it went straight up after a 1% selloff and about 35% in total. But then we should go back to the Fed meeting in June where as the official announcement of QE-unlimited, in which case 10% of the rally has already occurred.
Either way, the market most likely goes higher from here.
Short Stocks and Bonds cause that’s how I roll.
It’s gonna be a cold winter
I am actually squeamish…is that an option?
I dont think bearish is a realistic option at this point. One if either bullish, or offput by the entire situatiaon.
Bullish or bearish as of RIGHT NOW.
short term bearish – long term bullish
I am bullish on the markets and bearish on the economy. I’m neutral about how they will interact and what that means for stock prices!
Shana Tova!
Does a bearish vote get you banished Fromm thy kingdom?
We don’t have a “kingdom,” alas. That’s Christian non-sense. Our kingdom is this blue watery planet. You know, ashes to ashes, dust to dust. Genesis is serious about that.
Dont fuck with the Bull…you WILL get the horns.
….as in dont short the trend…
They will pull out all the stops prior to the elections.
After that, all bets are off.
Be bullish until we unleash the sleeper cells, infidels
I am surprised that there is 27% bearish out there. I thought I was the 1% Bear. OMG did the Clam use EVERY BIT of its firepower last week. He blew away all common sense on this All or nothing play. So we have the Clam buying up MBS, 40 Billion a month, POMO was over 120Billion a month. Bunds trade off of Bond Rates, these MBS’s don’t really push around the 30 year much…it’s more like the 30 year pushing around MBS. IMHO, QE2 failed (until Bank of England and ECB gave us QE/LTRO in Oct 2011)..because Oil Brent hit 120 and WTI went over 100..this is the battleline that is drawn. At this point I have no idea who is going to win..all I know is that the Clam bet too much if it is wrong, well, when he is wrong…the only people buying homes are speculators that pay cash, so lower rates aren’t going to spark anything…esp with this Oil Rally in full force.
The Clam swallowed you whole.
Well, if he swallowed all of us Bears, what else is left for him to eat?
Don’t forget the other $45B/mo for Operation Twist thru year end as well …. that’s a combined total of $85B/mo!
Tea, Twist doesn’t add new liquidity, just recyles.
Lower rates don’t mean lower mortgage rates. Margin between mortgage rates and savings rates are too high. Banks have been bailed out enough including QE3 so they don’t need to incur more costs lending. People get 0% for savings so loans should be like 1% but banks don’t need to lend much either anymore.
Bearish in very near short term. Bullish for a good run after a 10-15% drop.
Don’t fight the Clam that pwns all.
Bullish for now with trailing stops. But the Bernanke Put has a November expiration. I think all the rabbits have been pulled out of the hat, dont forsee any a “QE4” or another fed announcement before election.
Market is probably a bit pricy now because of Premium that has been applied. Stock Sentiment cant get much better. But buying pressures should continue as institutions get long to account for QE3.
Don’t see QE4/ That’s brilliant considering QE3 is permanent for years.
Stating obvious. But QE3 is only permanent for MBS and limited by amount per month. Point is Bernanke has pulled out all the stops and people are as probably bullish as they will ever be.
THIS MARKET IS ABOUT TO TANK!
Why would anybody be Bearish when the richest entity in the world is Bullish? Unless you are a short seller that can print money, you must be a legend in your own mind.
The fed eases when shit gets bad… Not sure that makes them bullish.
Bearish ’til Turnaround Tuesday!
Bullish, but cautiously so. I think we have another attempt to go higher, market gets banged. Everyone closes up and then we spike higher again.
Elections are are a worry though.
The current vote is a bit of a worry for the bull side though. 75%? Yikes.
I am positioned for bullishness but am cautiously so. I am up 8.9% for the two weeks in September and I don’t want to give up any gains.
Bullish.
Fundamental: QE3 printing money on this side of the pond, ECB printing money on the other. It’s hard to lose money in that scenario. (But by putting my foot to the floor over the next month, I’m damn sure going to try.)
Anecdotal: Agreement from friends and co-workers on both the left (“QE’s just giving money to the banks, let ’em all go bankrupt because fuck banks and because fuck banks!”) and the right (“QE’s just propping up dead banks walking, they should have just let the banks fail like good capitalists! This is inflationary! Because fuck banks and because gold standard!”) that QE1, 2, and 3 were bad policy, and that the stock market is a fraud, and that real progressives/conservatives ought to have nothing to do with it, indicates that we go higher.
Like your great-grandmother who never had a bank account after the Great Depression because banks were for rich people. Like your uncle who never invested in stocks again after the Jimmy Carter era because stocks were for rich people.
All the dumb money is on the sidelines. Now all we have to do is cast our nets and reel them in, even if it takes years.
True indeed that there are lots of folks who are on the sidelines saying the stock market is a fraud, and after what happened in 2008 they will never be in it again.
But they will get back in–after it goes 30-50% higher from here.
Of course most people reading this blog are bullish. The shorts have lost all their money in the recent runup & can’t trade any more. So there is no point in their reading trading blogs.
True but when all that’s left is bulls there isn’t much left to buy
Resting ‘BULL’..
😉
Scott Brown is losing to Elizabeth “Rigged Game” Warren by 6% in MA polls …
Australian Stocks Higher at Noon
Miners and banks leading the way.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/breaking-news/aust-stocks-higher-at-noon/story-e6frg90f-1226475742303
its a bullshit poll. You have loyal readers here who value your opinion. The majority trade is always wrong, but you are testing your own following. And is our data based on what we know your response will be?
how can you feel either way when the free market is being fixed. 50% cash, buy gold.
there is a chance the new moon could have a bearish effect.
Bullish. Look at any graph of the grandfathers over 50 years and they head in one direction.
given the results ( super bullish ) the market should pull pretty soon
Fly – this is not an accurate sentiment indicator, your readers mostly follow your views – since you are bullish, most of them are bullish. When you are bearish, most of them are bearish.
Bingo.
Right now you have to be bullish as there is no objective bearish evidence – technical or otherwise – to hang your hat on. But I believe the sugar rush will be shorter lived this time around. If next quarter’s earnings disappoint, people will give up on hope that QE3 is going to save us, the Fed is out of bullets, and we are going down hard. in the meantime, enjoy the party.
HHardly a surprise that so many, when asked a yes or no question, respond with”could go either way or yes but on the other hand”. Be interesting to know how many waffle voters are bearded clams for real or in drag.
The smart people are flexible, not idiots that short the same stock even when it goes against them or gets long but insists they are right even when it went down 20% from buy and no sign of turning yet
Dumb too but in a mr market sort of way
I hope we get a small pullback today. I want to buy the shittiest banks in bulk.
I agree with all of the above.
I agree with everything Cascadian said:
Some sectors will get left in the dust; otherwise Pamplona in autumn.
Fade the masses?
FFIV. Thanks fly. Read your post about Oct seasonality the other day and jumped on it.
Daily Chart:$BPNYA is above 70. RSI overbought,slow stoch overbought and %K crossed over %D meaning momentum has shifted bearish.
Weekly: RSI 69.8 where 70 is overbought. Slow Stoch is overbought but bearish crossover hasn’t happened yet and market can stay overbought.
monthly overbought.
Parabolic SAR and MACD histogram still have yet to reverse and go bearish but still could trigger before next oversold.
Mcclulland oscillator coming off of overbought.
too much overbought not to raise cash.There is a temptation to ignore indicators and remain bullish until momentum shifts, but it should remain as such. Eventually there will be a sharp shift to oversold conditions. Perhaps one can stay out and remain long and still get out in time, perhaps not… do you feel lucky?