iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,428 Blog Posts

DO NOT DEBATE MATH

During Friday’s sell-off, in The PPT, several prominent ETFs flagged OVERSOLD, one being XLB (basic materials).

Here is the track record of the OS on XLB over the past 12 months.

Understand, we are looking for “an edge”, not the holy grail. There is a mathematical advantage to buying such dips in XLB, with better than moderate results.

Just in case you were curious, here are the holdings inside the XLB ETF.

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33 comments

  1. elizamae

    Nice.

    I bought calls in $XLF based on similar SHOMP a few weeks ago and was rewarded handsomely.

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  2. Whaler31

    Those are pretty good looking odds, if you ask me!

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  3. the Flamethrower
    the Flamethrower

    Fly, love your info that you bestow on us. Have any thoughts on money management principles?

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    • The Fly

      For example?

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      • the Flamethrower
        the Flamethrower

        What’s the most amount of capital you will invest in any trade? And, at what point do you sell if the trade isn’t working as planned?

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    • Whaler31

      Money management, like where to park your funds in-between trades?

      The world banks and the Fed are artificially depressing interest rates, so that the investment Banks can keep speculating with impunity.

      This is a great way to disenfranchise the savers of America. (and the world)

      Instead of talking about bid-riggin in auctions (Libor), all markets are rigged. The news focuses on Tome Cruise and Katie Holmes, because you are way too spudid to know about high finance, or blanket banking corruption world-wide.

      SO, until they stop speculating, then YOU, should also keep speculating, for they will prop this up, until the $800 trillion in toxic debt and printed money,hits the proverbial fan.

      This will obliterate all markets….EXCEPT for GOLD and SILVER.

      Have a nice day!

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      • Metalleg

        That would be PHYSICAL GOLD AND SILVER. GLD & SLV may be worthless as well.

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      • Cascadian

        I think you are wrong about all that. What good would gold and silver be at that point? The only thing worth any value would be a Smith and Wesson. And that would only save you a few weeks or so until the mobs got your gold/food/silver… whatever, and killed your ass.

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  4. Goldie

    GMCR..look like a buy..just sayin

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  5. FUCKGOLDMANSACKS
    FUCKGOLDMANSACKS

    Gracias Señor Tropicana!

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  6. I Like Ribs!

    Can anybody come up with a bigger short on the Euro problem than currency short? There has got to be a big short besides currency. Please post ideas.

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  7. redman59

    Thanks for sharing. Going in further and looking at Basic Material stocks flagging as Tech OS many displaying short bull flag patterns. Great tool within the PPT.

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  8. markg6078

    Careful people… I work for one of the top 3 XLB companies… 2nd Q earnings season will be brutal.

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  9. joe

    XLB’s RSI(14) is 55.47. Not even close to panic territory.

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  10. halfbloodpope

    The part that confuses me so much is that you disdain technical trading and yet ‘technicals’ is a category in the ppt.

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    • The Fly

      This has nothing to do with technical analysis.

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      • Mad_Scientist

        Interesting. I wasn’t aware of that. So what does “technicals” refer to in the context of ppt?

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  11. jt

    Are the OS stats listed valid for closing price or rather anytime it hits OS intraday? With the late rally I doubt xlb closed OS. Thanks.

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  12. The Best of FLY
    The Best of FLY

    Happy 4th of July Sunday, July 3, 2011 at 1:54 am | 1,235 views

    Although the fourth of July doesn’t mean as much to me as it used to, I still like to celebrate the finer things this country has to offer. When you get older, you tend to look at things with a more cynical viewpoint, due to the experience of being burned in the past. Our elected officials have all but destroyed the morale of Americans and have accomplished the difficult task of turning a winner into a loser. We didn’t do it to ourselves. It’s the choices and polices that our government made that led us down the slippery slope we find ourselves sliding now. You shouldn’t feel ashamed about the current state of the country, since you know what needs to be done.
    Americans are a great people. Inside of 200 years, we’ve managed to conquer the world and establish a vast empire, one the world has never seen before.
    The two party process is a fucking fraud. They like to pit one against the other, D versus R, so that we don’t focus on how they are emptying the treasury for their personal gain. The media in this country is NO DIFFERENT than Chinese controlled state media, where the dickbags on every network suck the cock of Obama, nightly, no matter what he says or does. When Bush was President, there was plenty of criticism, but he was always protected by the other arm of state media, the one that supports the R’s. The genius of the Fox News vs MSNBC crowds is that it fans the flames and establishes the talking points of D vs R debates. I am sure most are unaware of this clever strategy, all properly financed and supported by the established elite.
    They want you to go to the polls, like fucking sheep, and vote for one of two people to represent your country. The only problem is both candidates are exactly the same, both vacuous in soul and mind. We haven’t been blessed with a great leader in a long, long time. There are plenty of leaders out there, but none stupid enough to run for public office. The machine is well oiled on both sides and isn’t receptive to outsiders trying to muscle in.
    Aside from the situation they put us in financially, they’ve ruined our food supply, fucked up the water supply, trashed health care, denigrated U.S. manufacturing capability, allowed U.S. education standards to drop to third world levels, and initiated the greatest transfer of wealth the world has ever seen, from west to east, via oil purchases. If this were another era, one where men had steel in them, pitchforks would be flying at the White House tomorrow, demanding the resignation of every single member of Congress and the executive branch. Instead, we will all run around the BBQ tomorrow, while watching jackasses play baseball, tossing around jumping jacks– without a care in the world. We’re dancing in a club that is on fire and we don’t even know it.

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  13. The Fly

    Baseless assaults upon my person will always result in instant banishment from iBC. There will be no debate.

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  14. republikat

    Wait!
    XLB -> TechOS (1.29) -> Overall Technical Score 1.29

    Cool, this would make XLB OS: WHY – does the PPT screener show:
    XLB 4.03% from % From Tech OS Threshold and it is listed as NO in Technical Oversold?

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