I want to buy ROSE, EXK and AG. My algorithms are pointing to bottoming out action in silver and oil. However, I find it exceedingly difficult to allocate funds on a Friday afternoon. Although my bias is to the upside, I am somewhat somber about the prospects for stocks in the near term, due to the lack of catalyst. Nonetheless, we can trend higher based on Italian/Spanish yields easing and money coming out of “safe haven” bonds, which can cause a cataclysmic short squeeze for the ages.
Because of this, I am unwilling to short in size. My HDGE position is managed, small and without leverage. As you can see, it is not getting hammered today, like TZA.
My year to date gains stand at 15.5%, putting me in striking distance (4.5%) of my all-time highs. Just when you fuckers thought I lost, I fucking won.
In summary, I have lots of money to allocate and will consider doing it next week. The mood can change, rather dramatically, should we get a red session in Europe Monday morning.
Top holdings: YELP, NUAN, AVGO, ALK, CPST, NXPI and AAPL (all positions are noted, timestamped and maintained real time inside The PPT, as well as watchlists)
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Might I ask how large your CPST position is? Hoping the tide will start turning on this soon…
Oh, almost forgot….
FIRST
Just in case any of you say “we are not closed yet” I say “time machine.”
Market goes down you’re bearish. Next day market has a dead cat bounce and you’re bullish. Typical amateur trader.
Wait for it….
I guess you skipped over the part that read I was up 15% for the year.
Banned
My one big mistake this week has been not following his exit before the FOMC, and I am covered in crimson for it.
The Fly has been a better guide for this alligator-infested river of a market better than any other prophets out there.
bwah!
When it doubt, look at the credit markets …
Till we break lower on US Bonds, can’t commit to equity longs yet …
Though I do see the logic on the Silver and Oil play
Get some DIG brobeans
Good beer.
in the words of ole blue eyes…”come fly with fly, lets fly ,lets fly …away” none of this makes any sense….
More problems for TVIX?
I’m starting to believe it was designed to sell short
Its too late for that shit now though.
Fear cannot be a one day phenomena, otherwise the VIX futures will not jump along.
After a period of the VIX above 25, when it returns below 20 it tends to stay there for a few weeks.
Waiting for that spike to 22+; could take a while.
I take back my diss of HDGE yesterday, as I gave back half my gains on BGZ today and you barely gave back any.
The point of HDGE is to moderate my losses if we go down, not hit a homerun.
That’s what JPM said too!
Me too, trying to hedge my longs with BGZ, but was surprised how much HDGE gained yesterday and didn’t give back today. I just like to know what I am shorting, and with HDGE you never know.
That’s because it is short a select group of stocks, unlike index related BGZ, which is certain to go down if we melt up.
think i will give this a look ….over the weekend
i give back nothing …ever…
Was that The Fly cashing out of some YELP after hours? 458,300 shares at 21.64
It’s Russell rebalance day.
Fly: we’ve heard just about everything we need to hear about $YELP for months now; why’d you go with $AAPL? (your reasoning)
I bought Apple because it is the new Reserve Bank of America.
Because their shit works the best. iPhone 5 will be the biggest upgrade in human history. iPad 7.75″ will pour water on the Fire and will be every 5-13 year old’s must have Xmas present. Dividend going ex in less than 15 days will open stock to huge amounts of “dividend growth” institutional buying. Dirt Cheap for the planet’s leading innovative and best run company.
can’t argue with that
If this is a mirage, bring on the belly dancing ladies!!!
It wasn’t a bullish close for futures…
It was a decent day.
Thanks for the Tribe, and have a nice weekend.
Anyone have thoughts on PENN?
GREECE leaves (was forced out) EURO!
Why didn’t they just do that 8 months ago?
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/4389898/Greeks-exit-Euro-Bailout-no-boot-out-as-Germans-win-4-2.html
On another front….
Wow, I finally used YELP!
It is pretty cool.
You know, how these things come along so fast, just when you get an interface you love, along comes a new one…..hey wait!-that sounds like my dating program when I was younger!
Yelp rules
booted out…..you dont say…..imagine that…..intresting
KNDI up!
Europe To Launch Massive Two Trillion Euro Bailout Package
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/6/22_Saut_-_Europe_To_Launch_Two_Trillion_Euro_Bailout_Package.html
If EXK can get back in the sevens, I’ll be loading up the truck and going full retard on that stock.
Trimmed positions in YELP down to 500 shares. Playing those shares on the bank’s dime that I earned.
Hi IBC’ers, I am kind of new here so hello every1.
In one of earlier posts, Fly wrote that among other actions FED should take to push this market higher is hiking inflation target.
I don’t get, how that would help?
Surely, it would push Treasuries lower… But if CPI has been printing negative for couple of months , that is probably off the table for them moment.
Thanks in advance!
PS great site 🙂
Inflation is the FRIEND of the middle and lower incomes,
whose balance sheets are mostly DEBT- mortgages,car loans,
credit card balances. Their only big asset is their house.
For a $100K house and $80K mortgage, doubling of prices
raises the homeowner’s equity from from $20K to $120K,
a 6x increase, making the monthly payment HALF as painful.
The retireds have their SS indexed. Our tax brackets are
indexed. Look back at 1977-80 and you’ll see you got your
greatest salary increases- 10 to 15% yearly. The inflation
went away, the EFFECT of your higher salary continues.
Moderate inflation encourages current consumption rather
than delaying purchases, increasing demand. Authorities realize this and set an inflation target of 2%, avoiding
the death spiral of deflation where purchases are delayed
as consumers wait for lower prices.
It also reduces income disparity, as the real value of stored cash decreases, while middle class retirees get a
good rate of return on CD’s and bonds, and wages go up.
It reduces real value of federal and personal debt and mortgages, while raising home values and stock prices.
Inflation is the FRIEND of a supply-demand economy.
Tks RG, that explains my question.
But now consider this. For past 2 years CPI was sitting at around 3%, while ST rates were at around 0. You couldn’t invest in any of risk-free yield and have positive returns in real terms. Thus inflation effectively was killing middle class, b/c it was destroying real value of their savings.
And that was the effect of QE. The biggest beneficiary of this situation is of course UST, which can issue/roll debt at very low rates.
With that being said, I don’t think they will let rates to go up, as, it would endanger US deficit.
The thing you said, about low rates and delayed demand is correct from money market equilibrium theory. But on the other hand, low rates mean higher credit purchases of homes, autos etc. So, supportive for those markets.
TS
riggedgame- no argument, just a comment or two for the discussion:
1. Wages trail price inflation of things middle and lower class people buy. Many people will starve or go crazy long before their house saves them.
2. The middle and lower class spend a much larger PERCENTAGE of their income on living expenses that have price inflation.
3. Price inflation of houses only works if the leverage does not blow the debtor out during the course of the loan, or until they sell the house.
4. Everybody knows huge inflation is already here in items that are excluded from the government inflation number. You have been to the grocery store lately? It is insane, unless you are wealthy.
5. Inflation blows out the weaker hands. Leverage, market movement, poor job market and high real cost of living wipe out those without capital to hang in there.
Collectively, the American middle and lower class have made some really poor decisions and have not been smart. Maybe this is why they are in this mess. Many Americans are just plain stupid and dumb. We are determined to buy crap, run up debt and waste our minds on nonsense. Have you watched how people act in public, and what is in the shopping cart?
In summary- People with low intelligence, who make poor decisions are destined to suffer. Every major economic event knocks them down further.
Sorry to put it this harshly, but they are losers for a reason. The one percent is smarter.
+1
over 1 hr long:
http://philadelphia.cbslocal.com/show/the-big-money-show-%E2%80%93-steve-cordasco/#
i got a security issue with this site.
I just clicked it again and got a security issue as well. Only the web guys really know what the hell goes on.
But I listened to it earlier with no alerts.
This week the world is more fucked up than ever.
im opened